The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,103 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 17 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Eyal: 'Spiritual but not religious' people have higher depression risk
“Turns out those people are much more likely to suffer from depression and anxiety disorder than people who do affiliate with some kind of religious community.”
Galloway: 30-Year-Old Americans Are Less Wealthy Than Parents Were at 30
“The average seven year old is 72% wealthier than they were 40 years ago. The average forty-year-old is 24, a person under the age of 40 is 24% less wealthy, and for the first time in our nation's history, a thirty-year-old man or woman isn't as wealthy as his …”
Galloway: Harvard Grew Endowment 4,000% While Class Size Grew 4%
“Harvard, fifty-four billion dollars in endowment, It's grown its endowment 4000% in the last 30 or 40 years, up forty-fold. It's grown its freshman class size four percent.”
Galloway: Mississippi Average Household Income Equals or Exceeds UK and Germany
“If you take the poor state, Mississippi, the average household income there is still the same or higher than it is in the UK, Germany, South Korea, Japan.”
Galloway: Corporate Taxes Lowest Since 1938, Top 25 Pay 6% to 8%
“Corporations are paying the lowest tax rate since 1938. The super rich, not the near rich, but the super rich, the wealthiest 25 Americans pay an average tax rate of six to eight percent.”
Galloway: Failed US Treasury auctions will eventually cause interest rates to skyrocket
“At some point, the Chinese or whoever aren't going to show up for one of our treasury auctions, and interest rates are going to skyrocket, and you're going to have, you know, shit's going to get real pretty fast.”
Galloway: 40% of US government spending goes to seniors, heading to 50%
“40% of all spending right now, government spending, goes to seniors. It's about to be 50%, which lowers the amount of money we can invest in technology, R&D, and education, which have a much bigger payoff.”
Galloway predicts 3:2 ratio of female to male college grads within five years
“In the next five years, there's going to be three female college grads for every two male college grads.”
Galloway: 66% of women under 30 have boyfriends vs 33% of young men
“Two out of three women under the age of 30 has a boyfriend. One out of three men under the age of 30 has a girlfriend. Why? Because women are dating older.”
Galloway cites extreme disparities in male suicide, addiction, homelessness, and incarceration
“Young men are four times as likely to kill themselves. They're three times as likely to be addicted. They're three times as likely to be homeless. They're 12 times as likely to be incarcerated.”
Galloway: Historically 80% of women procreated versus 40% of men
“80% of women have procreated. It's only 40% of men throughout history.”
Gurley: An AI-native startup will build a better CRM than Salesforce
“Do you think there'll be a new age CRM built around AI that won't, that'll start from zero Code, and like, and zero, and will be better than salesforce.com, and it won't evolve from all those fields, but it'll evolve in a different way. A hundred percent, and …”
Housel: Elon Musk will either become a trillionaire or go bankrupt
“That's why I think, like, Elon Musk will either be a trillionaire or bankrupt. And at this point, it's much closer to trillionaire at this point. But if you looked at him 10 years ago, when he was not the richest man in the world, you could see that. Like, thi…”
Sanchez: Confident wrong speakers are rated more credible than hesitant correct speakers
“But a really scary study, they did a follow-on study that showed people who argued more confidently but were wrong were rated even more credible than those who argued not confidently but were right.”
Sanchez: Bill Gurley backed WeWork because Adam Neumann was a showman
“He said when he first met him in a series A, so the company basically had nothing in existence. His company benchmark had never done a real estate transaction. That's what this guy was asking him to do. But he goes, within the first few minutes, I knew I was g…”
Sanchez: Business ownership is a critical lifeboat against AI automation
“I think we are in an asset ownership race with AI right now in a way that we don't even realize. Buying businesses and owning parts of businesses will be like getting on the last lifeboat out of the Titanic. You will either be the person who owns the farm or y…”
Charlamagne: Malcolm Gladwell no longer believes many ideas from Outliers
“I remember talking to Malcolm Gladwell one time, and Malcolm Gladwell said to me, you know, there's a lot of things that I wrote in books like The Outliers that I don't necessarily believe anymore.”
Sanchez: Passive income represents under 1% of US earned income
“According to the Federal Reserve survey, only 11% of Americans earn any passive income at all. And of those, 75% comes from real estate requiring some management. So truly passive monthly income represents less than one percent of all income earned in the U.S.”
Sanchez: 95% of Shopify Stores Never Make a Single Sale
“Shopify says, 95% of stores, they never make a single sale.”
Sanchez: 90% of Amazon FBA Businesses Fail or Make Under $100/Month
“Amazon fulfilled by Amazon, so Amazon FBA. 90% fail rate. Or they plateau at, let me tell you how much, a hundred bucks a month in profit.”
Sanchez: EQ increases salary 20-30% while IQ has zero correlation to wealth
“I was reading a study the other day about how there's something like a, like, 20 to 30% increase in salary just from thinking about increasing your EQ and really ignoring IQ, that IQ almost has no correlation between monetary success.”
Liemandt: Education can be transformed for one billion children over 20 years
“And so my next 20 years is all about transforming education and I think we can transform it for a billion kids.”
Liemandt: Alpha School ranks in top 1% across every grade and subject
“And we are the best performing academic school in the country on any, every single class we have is top one percent. And so in every grade, every subject, no school can say that.”
Liemandt: Trilogy created the first $1 billion AI product
“When I dropped out of Stanford and started the company, we didn't call it AI at all because of the negative connotations, but it was the first AI product to sell a billion dollars.”
Liemandt: Third-grade C students have a 90% chance of staying C students
“If you're a C student in third grade, there's like a 90% chance you'll be a C student for the rest of your life, right? It just, and that's not, there's no inherent brain chemistry around that. That's just a systems issue, right? The way we design school.”
Liemandt: Harvard published research showing AI tutors outperform Harvard teachers
“Harvard has published an article that says AI tutors are better than Harvard teachers.”
Liemandt: Traditional education leaves kids entirely unskilled for an AI world
“If we spend 10 years and educate kids the way we've been educating for a hundred years, those kids are gonna go into an AI world and have no skills that matter.”
Just: PEAK6 employs more female capital allocators than any other firm
“I think peak six has done a really good job of bringing, you know, a wide range. Including a lot of females, more than anybody else in the market in terms of capital allocators. People are actually making decisions around money.”
Sanchez: Business Leaders Who Cry Do Not Remain Leaders for Long
“Every single leader that I have seen cry in business is not a leader for very long.”
Ellsworth: Poppi Was the Fastest Growing Beverage in Beverage History
“Poppy was the fastest growing beverage in the history of beverage, basically.”
Ellsworth: DTC Companies Usually Cap Out Around $250 Million
“Something I know I won't want to do is run a DTC company because they usually cap out about two hundred and fifty million, right?”
Small RV and mobile home parks generate 30% to 60% cash-on-cash returns
“It's like 30 to 60% cash on cash returns.”
Sanchez: Sequoia Capital only allows non-profits to invest in its funds
“And I know this because my friends at Sequoia who are big, huge investors, they only allow nonprofits to invest now. They like will not take actively many people's money.”
Sanchez: Intelligence has zero correlation with how much money people make
“Once you realize that, your life will totally change because intelligence really has no correlation with how much money you can make.”
Masad: Replit launched the market's first end-to-end coding agent in Sept 2024
“And so we launched in September, 20, 24, and it was the first coding agent on the market where you can just, like, put a prompt, and it will, like, make you an application, it will create a database for you, it will, like, Put it out, deploy it, and scale it f…”
Masad: Replit grew from $10M to $100M ARR in 6–7 months
“And our revenue that year climbed to ten million ARR, and then when we got out of beta and the agent got really good, that's when we went to a hundred million ARR in a matter of six, seven months.”
Masad: Non-technical VC employee built $5M ARR software business on Replit
“And he got commitments for five million ARR before he quit his job. So in a matter of, on a matter of weeks, he had a business on his hand, and now he quit his job, and he has the contracts, and the money is flowing in.”
Masad: Non-coder John Chaney reached $1M+ run rate in weeks with Replit
“He has some domain knowledge on how to use AI for different kind of things, marketing and storytelling and things like that, and but he hasn't coded ever. He hasn't used AI coding tools, and he wanted to build an education platform to do AI training. AI traini…”
Masad: Meta's top AI hires earn more than company executives
“Those guys that are getting that Meta's buying for hundreds of millions of dollars are getting paid more than the executives, more than the entire command chain together.”
Masad: Peter Thiel left Meta board over disagreements on VR and AI
“And at the time, he actually had just left the Meta's board, and the reason he left is he disagreed with how Meta's trying to invest in all these immersion technologies, like VR and AI, and Zuck is trying to find his next act.”
Daymond John: Tesla robots will cost $30k in two years and $5k in five
“Well, I think that if robots are going to be 30,000 dollars a piece from, what do you call it? Tesla? In two years? They're going to be 5000 in five years.”
Poumpouras: Fortune 100 clients complain about new employees' weak work ethic
“One of the biggest complaints they have is we, we're getting people in who have a weak work ethic, who are bringing versions of themselves that is not helping the whole mission of the company, that we're having difficult time keeping people, finding the right …”
McCord: AI Mediates 20% of Human Waking Life
“The stuff we're building now, mind blowing statistic, but it mediates, meaning AI mediates, 20%
Of waking life.”
McCord: Constant AI Delegation Risks Atrophying Human Deliberation Over Goals
“As we use AI like a thousand times a day, if we are constantly delegating Delegating for micro abdicating what's going to happen. What's going to happen is we're going to develop a habit whereby we don't actually think about our ends. And if we lose that, we l…”
Sanchez: AI will create billion-dollar one-person companies within five years
“I think people will become billionaires this year, next year, the next five years as one person companies from AI. I think there will be billion dollar one person companies created from AI, from what I have seen firsthand.”
Sanchez: Future Billion-Dollar Companies Will Be Run by One Person and AI
“I think in the future there will be billion dollar companies made with one person and an army of AI agents underneath it.”
Malik: 150 Minutes of Weekly Cardio Is as Effective as Viagra
“There's actually a study that shows that if you exercise a 150 minutes a week, current moderate intensity cardiovascular exercise, it's as good as taking a Viagra.”
Malik: Gynecologists and Urologists Receive Minimal Training on the Clitoris
“Even in our training, there's very little discussion about the clitoris. We're just now starting to have this discussion like, hey, the clitoris has foreskin. Hey, it can get smegma. It can, there's other issues. You have to look at the clitoris and you have t…”