The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 94 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Marcus: A death will be tied to an LLM within a year
“The prediction that I made Is basically that there will be a death tied to a large language model in the next year.”
Prince: Google Paying Publishers for AI Scraping Is Inevitable
“I don't know if they'll pay up before the deadline, but I think it's inevitable that they'll pay up. Because again, I think that they need the content and they understand fundamentally that journalists and content creators and academics deserve to eat.”
Baratz predicts quantum computing will demonstrate AI energy efficiency by 2027
“I think we will start to see this benefit emerge this year or early next year.”
Kantrowitz: Humans will violently attack and destroy humanoid robots
“Well, I think we will definitely have a war among people and humanoid robots. It's without a doubt. Even if the humanoid robots don't assemble into the army, people will knock these things out and they're already burning Waymos. People don't like robots. They …”
Kantrowitz predicts OpenAI will lose its AI market leadership position
“My first prediction is that OpenAI, which is the leader in the field today, is going to lose the throne. That's right. OpenAI will lose the throne. It will still factor in, but it's not going to be the leader in the field that it is today.”
Enjeti predicts Trump will win 2024 presidential election if not indicted
“Yes to run, win. If he doesn't get indicted, I think he'll probably win.”
Beck: Next-gen data centers will use no more water than a car wash
“The way we share it with politicians in our areas, for instance, to say, well, the new data center are not going to use more water than a car wash.”
Kantrowitz: AI platforms will inevitably use personal interaction data for targeted ads
“So will AIs build an amazing sort of profile of you based off of all the personal data and then use that for ads? Most certainly.”
Costolo: SpaceX could be worth over $2T on day one
“When SpaceX goes public, and I think it'll actually, could you could, it could end up being worth over two trillion dollars on day one, whether that's a fake price or not.”
SpaceX will hold its initial public offering before OpenAI and Anthropic
“SpaceX will be the one that IPO is first out of this. I think we could both agree there.”
Anthropic will likely raise $50 billion at a $900 billion valuation
“I will note Anthropic is likely gonna raise at least one more round. It looks like they're gonna raise fifty billion dollars at a nine hundred billion free money valuation.”
Levie: AI labs will not accept liability for enterprise use cases
“The labs are not going to, you know, take on the liability for every single use case that you do. They're gonna have very narrow liability that they have around copyright and IP protection and stuff like that, but they're not gonna, you know, they're not gonna…”
Hoffman: Bankers will likely raise $80 billion for SpaceX's upcoming IPO
“That giant sucking sound you're gonna hear in the markets, you know, this May and June is, is, Bankers running around asking for eighty billion dollars, which, by the way, I think they'll get.”
Kantrowitz: The Pentagon's supply chain ban on Anthropic will never take effect
“I will give my hot take here, which is that This supply chain risk threat is never never manifests. Just never takes that takes effect.”
Siegler: Nvidia likely to participate in OpenAI's new round instead of $100B deal
“Actually with open AI doing their new fundraise, it's more likely that NVIDIA is just going to be a part of that fundraise.”
Siegler: xAI and SpaceX merger sounds likely and may be announced this week
“If they really do merge with SpaceX, which it does sound like now, is gonna happen, and may even be announced this week, which is insane how fast that that came together, if it comes together in that way.”
Kantrowitz: Tim Cook will likely step down as Apple CEO in 2026
“This is the last year, I think, for Tim Cook. Just, you know, not based off of any, anything more than reading the reports, but I think he's done.”
Siegler: Apple's next CEO will be John Ternus or Craig Federighi
“It has to be sort of between those two, between Ternus and Federighi. But everyone, you know, all the reporting points to Ternus. And so you have to believe that that's the thing.”
Roy: OpenAI will hit 1B users in 2026 but lose clear leadership
“I think a billion users. I don't think I think they're not the leader. I think Gemini's Google definitely starts to catch up. I think like everyone is biting off at different parts of the open AI. Empire, I guess if we call it that, but I don't think there's a…”
Kantrowitz: Apple targets smart glasses launch by end of 2026
“Apple is going to release its smart glasses targeted at the end of next year.”
Luria: OpenAI will generate at most $15B revenue, lose over $20B
“A company that at best will have fifteen billion dollars of revenue this year and will be losing more than that. So we'll be losing probably more than twenty billion dollars this year.”
AI Models Will Test and Verify Their Own Work Within Six Months
“Like I think over the next three or six months, I think we're going to see machine learning models being able to test and verify their work.”
Morris: OpenAI will not declare GPT-5 as AGI
“I hate to make bold predictions, especially in tech, because you can often be spectacularly wrong, but I do not think they're going to say GPT-V is anything approaching AGI, however you choose to define it.”
Morris: Google Will Lose Exclusive Safari Search Deal from Antitrust Remedies
“They're going to have to share more data with rivals. They're going to lose the right to be Apple's exclusive search engine provider on Safari across its devices.”
Petersen: Warehouse robots most likely will not be humanoid
“Humanoid actually doesn't solve a lot of problems because you don't get more density out of your warehouse. You want real estate density. You want to be able to stack the goods all the way to the ceiling, jam them in. So it's more, the form factor is not going…”
Parker: Semiconductor stocks will outperform when the market recovers
“I guess what I'm convinced of, because of the fact that 19, the last 20 times when the market did recover tech work, because semis have sold off so much, and because they ultimately are growing faster relative to the economy than they did previously, that semi…”
Petersen: Cabinet secretary indicated administration will negotiate deals on tariffs
“I believe there will be deals cut. I don't know if in time to pause the tariffs altogether, but and I believe that because a cabinet secretary told me that there would be a pause, a negotiation, I should say, not a pause, but he said two weeks ago that this wa…”
Petersen: Asian e-commerce giants will absorb duties if de minimis ends
“My suspicion from having analyzed a few of these and working with them is that the companies will keep, keep going and just have to pay the duties.”
Suleyman: GPT-4 and GPT-4o Efficiency Will Improve 100x
“So I expect that to happen for GPT-IV, GPT-IV-O and all of the other models down the road.”
Kantrowitz: Big Tech will not pull back AI CapEx, spending over $300B
“The capex pullback. I don't see it happening. We have big tech that's going to spend three hundred billion on capex this year plus. Much of that is going to AI, open AI, there's rumors now that, or reports, really, that they're about to raise forty billion dol…”
Big Tech cannot cut AI CapEx due to catastrophic FOMO risk
“I think that it won't be so easy also for, as I noted, for all these companies to pull back spend because they've already committed to buying X number of H. 200 chips, and then soon enough, we'll get the next iteration, you know, announced down the road, and s…”
Newton: Microsoft and OpenAI will stay partnered in 2025 despite tensions
“I mean, my, like, possibly contrarian take is, like, they just kind of muddle through. Like, that's kind of what I think that they're going to do. OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the, like, infrastructure of making AI. They're not goi…”
Wang: Militaries will deploy AI agents in active combat in 2025
“20, 25 will be the year where we start to see several militaries around the world start utilizing AI agents in active warfighting environments to great effect.”
Wang: AI will eventually formulate hypotheses, run tests, and conduct research autonomously
“Eventually It'll be able to start making its own hypotheses, running those tests on its own, and sort of ultimately making its own sort of discoveries or realizations or sort of conduct its own research.”
Ives: Current fiscal year will be Apple's strongest iPhone unit year ever
“So regardless of what you want to say about Apple intelligence, if it's going to be rolled out in October, November, January, February, in the next, for this fiscal year, this will, unless some black swan event happens, be the strongest iPhone unit year ever h…”
Weinberg: OpenAI Will Need to Raise Capital Again by 2026
“My back of the envelope would say 20, 26 at the latest”
Bosworth: Wrist neural interfaces will eventually work without physical gestures
“Over time, we think we can do that without having any gestures at all. Just having the intention, expressing the intention down your control system.”
Diamandis: Elon Musk will become the world's first trillionaire
“Elon will be the first trillionaire out there.”
GPT-5 will enable autonomous agents to execute UI tasks for hours
“Then we're gonna see much more multimodal data, and I think that'll look a lot like the equivalent of supervised fine-tuning, but for a bunch of people recording their screen and doing workflows with their screen, navigating UIs. So I think you'll have agents …”
Swisher says Apple needs AI partners because it doesn't steal data
“Why they have to partner with someone. They don't collect information the way the others do. They're not information thieves the way the others are.”
Srinivas: Anthropic will release a model better than GPT-4 in 2024
“I actually think they will end up creating a model better than GPT-IV this year. Like, it, it's sort of almost guaranteed to happen. So I believe it's going to happen with CLAW-III.”
Gelsinger: Intel, AMD, and Nvidia will be AI's three big merchant providers
“There's going to be those that build their own, you know, and that's what you see Amazon, Microsoft, Google are doing. They're going to say, hey, I'm going to own this and do this myself. And then there's going to be the general providers in the marketplace, a…”
Enjeti predicts McCarthy will cave to establishment and pass Ukraine aid
“Kevin McCarthy has said that he won't pass any more aid to Ukraine. In my opinion, he will absolutely fall to the blob and will 100% do that.”
Kosloff: Trump will run in 2024 and easily win GOP primary
“The thing that's weird for me, Trump is going to run. Trump easily wins the primary.”
Kosloff predicts a U.S. TikTok ban or forced spinout is inevitable
“For me, the question isn't like, Is there gonna be some form of TikTok spin out disinvestiture ban? It's gonna happen at some point.”
Brockman: Future voice AI will process input and output simultaneously
“The obvious thing that you want to accomplish is a model An AI that works much more like you and I do, right? That's able to process input at the same time it's processing output. And all of that is, of course, something that many people in this field are tryi…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Will Cut Prices to Leverage Infrastructure Scale Against Anthropic
“I think they will. I mean, I think that there's, if you think about it strategically, right? Anthropic has been winning. It's also, it's like part of this is about lifetime value, right? Anthropic has been winning over a lot of these enterprise customers with …”