The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 167 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 167 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
LeCun: Scaling up LLMs will not produce human-level AI
“We are not going to get to human level AI by just scaling up LLMs. This is just not going to happen.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Anthropic head toward trillion-dollar IPOs within next year
“We have open AI and Anthropic. Now they're going to do fifty billion dollars in revenue this year. They're both headed towards trillion dollar IPOs within the next year.”
Warner predicts AI will push recent college graduate unemployment to 30%
“We're at about nine percent recent college graduate unemployment. I think that number will actually go to 30%, and the economic disruption that will have not only on those young people that don't get jobs, but their parents who help finance their college educa…”
Altman memo sets AI research intern for Sept 2026 and AI researcher for March 2028
“We have internal goals of having an automated AI research intern by September of 2026, running on hundreds of thousands of GPUs and a true automated AI researcher by March of 2028.”
Amodei: In a couple years, AI will be the world's biggest industry
“I actually think that, you know, as the revenues, as the economic business of AI ramps up and it's ramping up exponentially, you know, if I'm right in a couple years, it'll be the biggest source of revenue in the world, right? It'll be the biggest industry in …”
LeCun: Human-level AI will not happen within two years
“Whatever you can hear from some of my more adventurous colleagues it's not going to happen within the next two years. There's absolutely no way in hell to, you know, pardon my French.”
Kedrosky: Token demand is unlikely to achieve 100M-fold growth in 6 years
“You have to see around a hundred million fold growth over the next six years in terms of tokens. Is it possible? Absolutely. It's possible. Is it likely? No, it's not likely, but it could happen.”
Beck: AI will need India's power and US drinking water by 2030
“We estimate that in the next four or five years, by 2030, AI will need the incremental power of the whole of India and the incremental drinking water of the whole of the United States.”
Roy: Tesla and SpaceX will inevitably have to merge
“Giving that little nugget to the world, starting to seed that idea, and I think it's almost, it has to happen, because these two companies, again, Tesla has a car business, SpaceX kind of has a space business, still has an internet satellite business, but they…”
Hinton predicts AI will eventually replace all human call center workers
“So for example, if you take people in call centers, when you call up to complain about your bill, or to see if you can get a cheaper account, stuff like that that's not so elastic. AI will replace all of them. It'll know much better on what the correct answer …”
Costolo: SpaceX will acquire Tesla
“I think SpaceX, I am one of the people that believes SpaceX will buy Tesla.”
Michael: Anthropic's First Amendment retaliation claim against Pentagon will fail
“I think the notion that a First Amendment claim is going to hold up is, is, would be shocking, because that means that the government has no choice to make.”
Adler: OpenAI skipped committed safety testing for GPT 5.3 Codex release
“And unfortunately, it seems like OpenAI's release of last week, GPT, 5.3 codex, one of the big breakthrough models we've been talking about. As I look over the evidence, It seems like open AI did not abide by the testing that they had committed to in various w…”
Kantrowitz: Meta will partner with Google or OpenAI on smart glasses
“Over the next year, you will see Meta bring in other AI models. You will see them partner with Google. You might see them partner with OpenAI.”
OpenAI will not achieve $100 billion in annual revenue, Zitron predicts
“Even if OpenAI was profitable, okay, they're the biggest AI company, cool. Are they going to a hundred billion a year? Bullshit. No.”
Kantrowitz: Grammarly will go extinct as LLMs replace grammar tools
“And here's my hot take on Grammarly. I think they're going to go extinct. I think I wouldn't call them a rapper because they were around before large language models, but all this logic that they painstakingly built into their program and all the AI developmen…”
Kantrowitz: Regulators will likely break up Google and potentially Meta
“The vibe here is that we're going to see breakups very likely of Google and potentially of Facebook.”
Demis Hassabis predicts AGI is three to five years away
“I think you know, I would say probably like three to five years away.”
Prince: Automated Web Traffic Will Be 1,000x Human Traffic Within Five Years
“And if we just assume the current trends, what's, what's blows my mind is that if you just fast forward five years from now we estimate now that automated traffic online will be a thousand times what human traffic is.”
Sharp: AI model providers will launch competing telemetry products within 18 months
“I have a near 100% belief that the, that these companies will eventually want to compete with my business. And so, you know, I need them. I need their models. I need the intelligence that they're selling, but I'm, I have some very real concerns that, you know,…”
Shao: MiniMax AI Projected to Reach $1.2 Billion ARR by Year-End
“I think, you know, if you look at, I think Moon Minimax AI I think AI's run rate AR is already something like one billion now, and then Minimax projected to be one billion or to 1.2 billion by the end of the year.”
Kantrowitz: Selling Raw AI Intelligence Alone Won't Build Trillion-Dollar Companies
“I think that if there was a belief that you could build a trillion dollar company just by selling intelligence from the API alone not gonna happen most likely.
but what could happen is you, if you're the developer of the intelligence, you can build products w…”
Shao: Mass-Market Humanoid Robot Deployment Is 10 Years Away, Not Five
“People love to hype about it. They're saying, look, human robots are going to be deployed in the next three to five years in the mass market. He gave me a rough number of 10 years again, and I believe him, because I've seen a lot of these robots. They frankly …”
Stamos: International Treaties to Halt AI Development Will Not Happen
“You've got people talking about international treaties or whatever. I don't think any of that's going to happen. I don't know what my position is on that, but I just don't think it's going to happen. I just, I think there's no way this is just math and Silicon…”
Gardizy: OpenAI will not deploy 10 gigawatts of data centers within two years
“Like, even if you think of OpenAI, for example, announcing a 10 gigawatt project, you know, we're not going to see 10 gigawatts in the next couple of years, or they're going to sort of spread out that bet.”
Kantrowitz: Tech Capex Will Hit $700 Billion This Year
“And we're going to see seven hundred billion dollars in capital expenditures this year”
Levie: Governments will evaluate and green-light AI model releases within 3-5 years
“I think practically in the next three to five years, we probably have to end up in an environment where models do get evaluated by the government. There is a sort of collaborative approach between the government and research and the labs. You know, the governm…”
Gardizi: OpenAI will not deploy 10 gigawatts in the next few years
“Even if you think of open AI, for example, announcing a 10 gigawatt project you know, we're not going to see 10 gigawatts in the next couple of years, or they're going to sort of spread out that bet.”
Roy: Google Gemini will monetize via ads, but Anthropic will avoid them
“At least anthropic is not, I mean, I don't think they're going in that direction at all. Google and Gemini, Obviously, 100% will”
Hinton: AI will eventually read nearly all medical scans
“I still think in terms of reading scans that'll be done more and more by AI. And in the end, AI will be doing, reading nearly all the scans. Maybe in a few very tricky cases, radiologists will be consulted.”
Plouffe: Vance will break from Trump and Sacks on AI by 2027
“I believe that J.D. Vance will separate from Sachs and Trump on AI by, you know, first or second quarter of twenty-twenty-seven. Not all the way, but he's gonna have to.”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic and OpenAI will both have trillion-dollar IPOs
“We're looking at, they're both, Anthropik and OpenAI are both gonna have trillion dollar IPOs, and we'll have many large companies, I think, that will follow them in the generative AI world.”
Shevelenko: Codex and proprietary AI assistants will never run rival models
“So the one thing that Codex is never going to be able to support is running Gemini models. You know, they will always be in the GPT family. Same thing for, you know, Claude, like they're not gonna, you know, have GPT models. Gemini is not gonna have Grok model…”
Kantrowitz: Apple Will Make Big Acquisitions in John Ternus's First Year
“I think Apple's gonna make some big acquisitions in Ternus' first year for him to set the tone that it's gonna be different, and I think that's good.”
Cuban: Patent filings will decline because AI models train on them
“And what you'll, you're starting to see happen, and will happen even more, if you own intellectual property, you're gonna see fewer people applying for patents, because the minute you apply for the patent, it's available to everybody, which means every model c…”
Cuban: Entry-level software engineering jobs at big companies will vanish
“If you try to work in a big company and become an entry-level software engineer or programmer, that's just not gonna be there because the people in that big company, they're gonna have training, they're gonna have older people that are in the IT department tha…”
Kantrowitz: Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery will inevitably merge
“Well, first of all, it's just going to get worse for two reasons. One is we're starting to see consolidation in the space. Like you have Netflix as this clear winter and then and then Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery are going to tie up.”
MG Siegler predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will not IPO in 2026
“I actually predict as one of my year end predictions, I predicted that neither OpenAI nor Anthropic will go public in 20, 26.”
Anthropic will likely IPO at a $1 trillion valuation
“Anthropic is probably going to go public at a trillion.”
Sorkin: SpaceX IPO Will Likely Outpace OpenAI in Valuation
“Oh, I imagine it does. I mean, I, if we're talking, I think the numbers now, 1.75 trillion dollars with a T. I think right now OpenAI isn't, doesn't start with a T yet, but maybe.”
Levie: Total AI market cap will reach tens of trillions of dollars
“We're talking about a category where, you know, it'll be measured in the tens of trillions of dollars. The market caps that will be generated by AI. Some of that will go to the chip providers. Some of that will go to the supply chain of the chip providers. Som…”
Manyika: Google aims to conduct AI training runs in space by 2027
“So the first milestone is we're hoping that in 20, 27 will have done a couple training runs in space.”
Commercial gate-model quantum computers remain several years and 100 logical qubits away
“Not until we get to the hundred logical qubits will these systems actually become commercial. So we still have a few years to go before we say that.”
Siegler: OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will probably be delayed to 2027
“In terms of OpenAI and Anthropic, I just think that beyond where their businesses are at and with these now massive fundraisers, as we're talking about, like, I think that it will push it out a little bit. And the real, Wild card is obviously, as it always is,…”
Morris: Amazon Will Likely Execute Another Mass Layoff Within 12 Months
“I know the HR chief is trying to calm everyone down by saying this is not the new normal, but I would be very surprised as if this is the last mass layoff as Amazon we see in the next 12 months.”
Bret Taylor: AI Agents Will Shift Software Toward Outcomes-Based Pricing
“I would argue that actually, I think agents will go the way of outcomes based pricing where, you know, for example, at CIRA, we charge per resolved case for our customer service agents. I think if you made an agent to Audit your financials. You should pay per …”
Baratz: Error-corrected gate-model quantum computers are 7 to 10 years away
“We think we're looking at seven to 10 years to get to the point where we have Truly error corrected scaled gate model, quantum computers that are capable of doing things like Helping you develop designer drugs, a drug designed for you to dramatically improve y…”