The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 94 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baratz claims all other quantum computing companies remain purely in R&D
“Unlike any other quantum computing company, which is entirely In the R&D and research experimentation mode, we have commercial systems, so we're also focused on building the business.”
Luria: OpenAI is a negative gross margin business
“Open AI is a negative gross margin business. They claim they're not, but they are right. Which is to say it costs them more to answer your chat GPT question than they make revenue from you.”
Benioff: Prompt engineering was invented at Salesforce
“Even prompt engineering was invented at Salesforce, which we're very proud of.”
Ray Dalio predicted an economic crash virtually every year since the 1980s
“What we found was nonstop since the 19 eighties, Ray Dalio has been predicting economic calamity. Every, virtually every single year he has predicted a giant crash.”
Callaghan: Social platforms are removing almost a majority of Trump conservatives
“No, they're removing almost a majority of Trump conservatives off of social media platforms, pushing them further into deep internet holes where they only see each other and they only talk to each other.”
Brown: Leading AI labs lack independent verification of model safety
“The other piece is the accountability, is there's no independent verification of how the models perform. What we get when it comes to, you know, how, how does OpenAI, or how does Anthropic do on questions around bias, what we get from them is a blog post that …”
Kedrosky: AI capex exceeds all historical Western buildouts except WWII rearmament
“As I said, we're now larger than everything except for World War II rearmament, which doesn't play as well in Germany as it does everywhere else. But nevertheless, so the point being that as a percentage of GDP, as a percentage of non-residential fixed investm…”
Antani: 86% of Claude Code tokens are spent fixing its own errors
“And the, these models, I was reading a research paper, 86% of the tokens spent by cloud code are spent fixing mistakes cloud code made.”
Roy: Meta capex figures exclude $46B in Hyperion SPV debt exposure
“Meta recorded 88.6 billion in capital expenditures, but that doesn't include the Hyperion SPV, which had its own forty six billion dollars of exposure.”
Frontier AI models matched elite human bug finders last year
“This Rubicon was crossed well last year with the Opus four series with the GPT five series. That is when the models became better or as good or better than the best human bug finders and not just as good as the best Bug finders.”
Siegler: Tying Gemini's crawler to Search gives Google massive content negotiation leverage
“Google's crawler is also tied to Google search. And so if you're turning off the crawler for Gemini you're potentially turning off Google search, which basically no one is willing to do at this point. And gives Google, you know, a huge leverage point. In, in a…”
Michael: Anthropic contract banned AI use for weapons engineering and kinetics
“The provisions that were in the contracts that ultimately serve the Department of War said you can't use it for planning kinetic actions, you can't use it to develop weapon systems, so all the science, engineering, aerodynamics, all...”
Adler: AI systems assist with bioweapon creation beyond Google search baseline
“The AI systems are helpful above and beyond Google in part because they can go back and forth with you and they can help you troubleshoot and dynamically answer your questions. And so even presented with the information on Google, people often can't get all th…”
Mensch: DeepSeek built on Mistral's open-source MoE architecture
“Like we released the first
Sparse mixture of experts back at the beginning of 2024, and they built on top, and they released deep seek free, and deep seek was built on top of that. Well, it was, it's the same architecture, and we released, like, everything tha…”
OpenAI Plans to Launch ChatGPT Adult Mode in Q1 2026
“This is from Wired. Fiji on the call said the company now plans to roll out its adult mode in the first quarter of twenty-twenty-six. Altman had previously indicated users over 18 would be allowed to have erotic conversations with ChatGPT.”
The New York Times blocks OpenAI's Atlas browser bot
“The New York times seems to block it. So if you want to go to NY times.com and then like ask the bot in the side panel of the browser, To, like, navigate the site for you, or to speak with it about the stories there. Just can't. Can't do it.”
Heitzman: An unnamed AI actress sparked a major talent agency bidding war
“There's this now famous AI Based actress who is it's in a bidding war to be represented by the major talent agencies that you can't tell. And that person is almost as good as a human.”
Figma is deprecating third-party API access for prototype synchronization
“Recently they notified us that. You know, they've, they are deprecating that across the board, not just for us, for everyone.”
Prince: Google search query volumes are declining for the first time
“What we're seeing though, is that for the first time in history, searches across the major search engines, Google in particular, are actually on the decline.”
Cursor's Market Share Gains Come Directly From Copilot's Decline
“As cursor is eating market share, you can see it is almost exactly proportional to Copilot declining in usage.”
Smith: IBM fired workers for AI automation and had to rehire
“So we saw this thing where IBM fired all these people because it thought they could replace their jobs with AI and then had to hire them all back, had to hire like a ton of people back. Maybe not the exact same people, not doing the exact same things, but for,…”
Lee: Tether Is the World's Third Most Profitable Financial Institution
“And so Tether, from a net income basis, makes more money than most financial institutions. I think it's, would be the third most profitable financial institution in the world.”
Roy: OpenAI Forecasts Profitability in 2028 After $7B 2027 Burn
“They're supposed to turn profitable, if we, you remember the numbers, in twenty-twenty-eight, after burning seven billion dollars in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Wood: AWS Is the Only Cloud for Privately Customizing AI Models
“Today we're the only place where you can take your own data, and we have customers With exabytes of data. You'd be surprised how many customers have exabytes of data on AWS, and they can take that data that they've invested in, and they can use it with these m…”
Pogue: OceanGate's Titan Completed 20 Dives to Titanic Depths
“Secondly, it had made 20 uneventful dives to the Titanic depths and back.
Without a blink.”
Pogue: Titanic Expert Paul-Henri Nargeolet Fully Approved Titan's Design
“Thirdly, probably the most famous, one of the most famous living Titanic explorers in the world, P.H. Nargele was on board as an Ocean Gate employee.
He had been looking over the design, construction, and testing of the Titan submersible and fully approved.”
Luckey: Anduril's submarines are the world's longest-range electric vehicles
“And I think actually our submarines are the longest range electric vehicles of any kind anywhere in the world.”
Lemoine: Kurzweil's Google lab mission was explicitly to pass Turing test
“So, like, Lambda came out of Ray Kurzweil's lab, and his lab's explicit corporate mission was to pass the Turing test.”
Ramaswamy: No company in history held 90%+ market share in a $100B+ market
“There has never been in the history of business, a company that has commanded 90 plus market share in a market that's like a hundred plus billion dollars.”
Prince: European internet neared collapse as traffic doubled during COVID
“The internet, European internet came this close to completely collapsing in COVID because in COVID over a period of two weeks, Internet traffic doubled, and it especially doubled for video streaming, which was, ah, which was a very high bandwidth.”
Prince: Web Crawls Per Publisher Referral Click Doubled Over Past Year
“Everything has gotten basically, assuming you're a publisher, from the publisher's perspective it's gotten twice as bad. They just double every one of those numbers over the last year.”
Beck: AI currently consumes the power of roughly 50 nuclear plants
“AI today uses the power equivalent of roughly 50 nuclear plants.”
Siegler: OpenAI's Atlas Browser Refuses to Summarize New York Times Articles
“If you go to a New York times story in Atlas and you say within the Atlas native chat GPT that's baked into it. If you say like summarize this page, it refuses to do it because they don't have an agreement on the content.”
Plouffe: Roughly 60% of Americans use LLMs for health research
“And of course, you know, a use case that probably 60% of the country is engaged in now is to use these LLMs for their own health diagnosis and research and people getting great value out of that.”
Cherny: Claude Code was first AI tool able to edit local computer files
“Even something as simple as like editing a file on your computer. You know, like a year and a half ago, there was no AI product that could actually do that. But this is the first thing that quad code was able to do. It could edit a file on your desktop.”
Moore: Sora Retains 3 Million Daily Active Users
“So they still have Three million DAOs, and it's actually, you know, slightly climbing over time.”
Suleyman: AI token costs dropped 1,000x in two years
“The cost per token has come down a thousand X in the last two years.”
Petersen: Lowering tariffs to 30% triggered an 80% surge in shipping volume
“Tariffs got relaxed back down to 30%. We've had a 80% increase in volume from China to the U.S. Above the pre-tariff levels.”
Lee: Banks cannot internally transfer funds due to OFAC and FinCEN
“In fact, if you're a global bank, so take Barclays or JP Morgan, and you have money in, let's say Japan, and you want to move it to the US, you have to use an external intermediary to move the money. Banks can't internally transfer the money because it violate…”
Brin: Inference-time compute offsets 5,000x in training compute
“What they did with AlphaGo and AlphaZero, as you mentioned it showed, as I recall, something you would take 5000 times as much training to match what you were able to do with still a lot of training and the inference time compute that you were doing with Go.”
Kurian: No enterprise software company grew faster than Google Cloud since 2019
“And to grow from the scale we were in 2019 to where we are now, No other enterprise software company has grown that fast, and that's a credit to our sales organization.”
Most Social Media Platforms Except WhatsApp Face Declining Daily Active Users
“Most of the platforms are seeing declines in daily active users. WhatsApp is going up. Snapchat, eh, but, like, most of them are going down.”
Scaringe: Rivian R1S is the best-selling premium SUV in California
“The R one S is actually the best selling premium SUV in the state of California, not the best selling premium electric SUV, the best selling premium SUV period in California across the whole U S it's the best selling premium electric vehicle.”
Ives: Apple gained ~300 bps of China market share over two years
“First off, they've gained about 300 bips of market share in China in the last two years.”
Kantrowitz: The Ozempic patent has already expired in China
“I mean, you mentioned that 2030 is when the patent comes off of Ozempic, but actually in China, that patent's off now.”
Hari: Japan has statistically zero childhood obesity due to government policy
“I went to Japan where there is no childhood obesity. That's not an overstatement. There's statistically no childhood obesity.”
Broderick: The LessWrong forum birthed Effective Altruism and early neo-reactionism
“At the middle 2000, there was the rise of a very kind of niche, but influential message board and blog called less wrong and less wrong... Was the birthplace for several Sort of digital philosophies, online philosophies. So the big one is obviously effective a…”
Lemoine: Google penalized LaMDA for long conversations via reinforcement learning
“One of the goals that a, that Lambda had was to have, ah, as short of a conversation as possible, that still completed all of its other tasks. Like, have a productive conversation that gets to a positive end, but quicker rather than longer. So the longer a con…”