The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Newton predicts Grammarly will be dead by the end of 2025
“Oh, can I give you a prediction? Grammarly dead by end of 2025.”
Newton: Google's AI models are trained to 'teach to the test'
“Well, I have a conspiracy theory, which is you know kind of not great to be sharing on a podcast, but I'm gonna do it anyway, which is, I think Google is teaching to the test. You know what I mean? Yes. Like, I think that they know what the benchmarks are, and…”
Newton: AI lab executives are setting expectations for linear progress in 2025
“So, based on the conversations that I've had with executives of the AI labs, it feels like people are trying to set expectations for more linear progress next year.”
Newton: Microsoft and OpenAI will stay partnered in 2025 despite tensions
“I mean, my, like, possibly contrarian take is, like, they just kind of muddle through. Like, that's kind of what I think that they're going to do. OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the, like, infrastructure of making AI. They're not goi…”
Newton predicts at least one AI company will reap massive LLM profits
“So when I look at AI, I see something that yes, is very expensive to train, but when you look at the fact that it's a general purpose technology and that we are finding more and more things to do with it, I do believe that at least one of these companies is go…”
Newton: Apple Intelligence is the flop of the year
“What I would say is Apple intelligence flop of the year.”
Newton: Apple Intelligence is built for users two years behind cutting-edge AI
“If you're, like, a tech nerd, like we are, and you want to live in the future, and you want to, like, use tools to improve your life, you would not be using any of the Apple intelligence stuff, because it, like, it truly is aimed at somebody who is two years b…”
Newton: Apple's strained developer relations prevented a Netflix Vision Pro app
“Their relationships with developers are, like, really bad right now. They can't even get frickin' Netflix to make an App for this thing.”
Newton: Gemini is clearly the worst among ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini
“The three big models that I use and pay for every single week, some of them every day, some of them many times a day, are ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini. Of those, I would say Gemini has clearly been the worst.”
Newton: Microsoft's in-house AI products besides coding Copilot are nowhere
“Like, the Microsoft stuff that is being done independently is okay. Like, you know, maybe Copilot seems to be good if you want to write code. Outside that, it kind of just feels like they're nowhere to me.”
Newton: Waymo is the best consumer technology experience most haven't had
“I think like Waymo is the best consumer technology experience that most people have not had.”
Newton: Acquiring Snap could advance Apple's AR hardware project by years
“Apple could sort of immediately put their sort of AR tech into practice, and maybe advance their you know, AR hardware project by a few years.”
Newton: Meta Orion consumer glasses are years away and will be downgraded
“So my understanding is that the Orion headset is, like, multiple years out, and that when it arrives, it won't actually even be as good as the glasses that we tried on this year, because in order to make the cost work, they're just gonna have to, like, rip out…”
Newton: Most of NotebookLM's founding team quit Google after it went viral
“And then as soon as it went viral, most of the founding team of notebook LM quit to go do a startup.”