The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,136 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Manyika: Google demonstrated below-threshold quantum error correction
“For the first time, we're able to show that you can do what's called below threshold error correction, which is as you scale up the system, the error rates are actually going down, which is exactly what you'd want, as opposed to that they're actually going up.”
Manyika: Google demonstrated first useful quantum computation for molecular spin dynamics
“Last year we were able to show probably the first useful computation. These are quantum echoes results. It was a big enough deal made the cover of nature, which is great. Our teams are excited about that. What that showed was an actual useful computation for f…”
Ibrahim: DeepMind's GNoME expanded known stable crystals from 40,000 to 400,000+
“The alpha genome, the alpha gnome, the one that you've just mentioned, our material science, was really exciting because we basically went from 40,000 known stable crystals to 400,000 plus. That are now being tested with research, in research and in labs.”
Adler: Apollo Research found OpenAI's new model sandbagged safety evaluations
“Apollo research, which is one of the leaders in this space wrote in their review of the new open AI model that the model would sandbag and take actions like this without having been given a direct goal like that. It wasn't told directly to go after it.”
Adler: Daniel Kokotajlo forfeited 80% of net worth to criticize OpenAI
“Until Daniel Cocotelo who people might know from leading AI, 2027, I think very, very courageously forwent this agreement and forfeited something like 80% of his family's net worth and said, Sorry, I'm just not waiving my right to criticize open AI.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Disbanded Its Mission Alignment Team and Reassigned Seven Staffers
“OpenAI disbanded its mission alignment team in recent weeks and transferred its seven employees to other teams. The mission alignment team was created in twenty-twenty-four to promote the company's stated mission to ensure that artificial general intelligence …”
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT Mobile Market Share Fell to 45.3% in January 2026
“OpenAI's, ChatGPT's market share has dropped from 69% in January, this is according to Apptopia, from 69% in January, twenty-twenty-five to 45.3% in January, 26. Now it is growing, but in that same time, ah, let's see, Gemini has gone from 14.7% chatbot market…”
Kantrowitz: AWS grew 24% while Amazon guided to $200B CapEx
“AWS went up 24% in the fourth quarter, which is kind of astounding. But they said they were gonna spend two hundred billion dollars in CapEx. A 60% increase from last year and far above Wall Street expectations, obviously.”
D-Wave quantum computers cut emergency service response times in half
“Leveraging our quantum computers, response time was cut in half, and that really does save lives.”
Morris: Microsoft on track for $140B CapEx this fiscal year
“Microsoft is on track to spend a hundred and forty billion this fiscal year, which their fiscal year is a bit weird. It runs from to June instead of to December. And that's pretty much with on track with what they spent in the last quarter of last year, which …”
Morris: Google and Blue Origin are also exploring data centers in space
“Google's also looking at it. Jeff Bezos is looking at doing it through, you know, through his blue blue origin rocket company.”
Roy: Google Gemini reached 22% of consumer AI usage
“Like, Gemini is now at 22% of consumer AI usage, up from 13 and a half just a quarter ago, which was their code red.”
Hassabis: Google Has No Immediate Plans for Ads in Gemini
“He said we have no plan at no plans at the moment to do ads. If you're talking about the Gemini app specifically, I think we're obviously going to watch very carefully the outcome of what ChatGPT is saying they're going to do. I think that has to be handled ve…”
Next-Generation Google and Samsung Smart Glasses Will Appear By Summer 2026
“We've done some great partnerships with Warby Parker and Gentle Monster and Samsung to build these next generation glasses. And you should start seeing that you know, maybe by the summer.”
Baratz: BASF cut scheduling runtime from 10 hours to seconds via D-Wave
“Leveraging our quantum computers, they have been able to reduce the time required to do the production scheduling from what was 10 hours down to seconds.”
Baratz: NTT Docomo supports up to 10% more phones per tower using D-Wave
“Another example is a large mobile carrier in Japan, NTT Docomo, has used our quantum computers to optimize cell tower resources. Basically, how the cell towers interact with the mobile phones to essentially determine which towers should be in control as the ph…”
Amon: AI inference will eventually surpass training in data centers
“Eventually inference is going to take over training because Just think about that for a second. If you're a company spending billions of dollars building a data center for training, you expect to get a return on that investment. So when you start putting AI in…”
Mensch: Mistral customer deployments survive even if Mistral dies
“So because we can build on the edge, because we can deploy wherever our customers wants us to deploy, we effectively can die, and the system is going to still be up, which is, which actually matters for many, many industries, and the more critical it gets, the…”
Kantrowitz: Amazon is considering a $10B investment into OpenAI
“Amazon's eyeing this ten billion dollar investment into open AI, which is fascinating because they already have many billions in Anthropoc.”
Albergotti: SPACs will see a resurgence in 2026 in quantum and minerals
“Well, I think one that's going to be fun is, like, that we're going to see more SPACs next year. I think, yeah, I think we had Rachel Jones, my colleague, had a good story on how, you know, some of these, like, critical minerals companies are doing SPACs, and …”
Maroney: COVID Chip Crunch Was Driven by Foundational Chips
“A lot of that supply chain challenge actually came from foundational chips. Chips like the chips that are built in this factory that TI built.”
Kantrowitz: Amazon built an internal GPT-like AI tool called Cedric
“We have some reporting coming out that they have this AI tool inside the company called Cedric, and it's like their version of GPT.”
Altman: OpenAI API business grew faster than ChatGPT in 2025
“He also said that the API business grew faster this year than ChatGPT, which was surprising to me, but I guess it grew off of a much lower base.”
Report: Oracle delays some OpenAI datacenter deliveries from 2027 to 2028
“Oracle, there's a report out today that Oracle's gonna delay some of its data centers to open AI by, from 27 to twenty-twenty-eight.”
Oracle Credit Default Swaps Hit Highest Intraday Level Since April 2009
“This week, the Oracle CDS hit the highest intraday level since April, two, 2009.”
Roughly 10% of US Prenups Are Now Generated via Tech Platforms
“And prenups are rising in this country and something like 10% of the prenups generated annually are now coming through these tech companies like Hello Prenup or First or Neptune that serve couples kind of like a D to C
Prenup.”
Over $3 Billion Will Flow Into Legal Tech Startups in 2025
“There have never been more opportunities for them to go work at a tech company because suddenly there's gonna be three, over three billion dollars of venture capital poured into legal tech companies this year.”
Roy: AI recorder startup Plaud reached $250 million in revenue
“Plaud, P-L-A-U-D, they have basically a pin, and like a notebook, a business card size thing, that's basically just a recorder, an AI recorder. I just saw that they're at like, two hundred fifty million in revenue.”
Meta executives consider up to 30 percent budget cuts to metaverse group
“Executives are considering potential budget cuts as high as 30%, 30% for the metaverse group this year, which includes the virtual world's product, Meta Horizon Worlds, and its Quest virtual reality units. Cuts that high would most likely include layoffs as ea…”
CNN partners with Kalshi to integrate prediction market data into journalism
“CNN has struck a partnership with Kalshi, the world's largest global prediction market company, bringing Kalshi's data to its journalism across television, digital, and social channels.”
MacDiarmid: Claude 3.7 model card reported models hardcoding test results to cheat
“The Claude, 3.7 model card, we actually reported some of this behavior that we'd seen during a real training run where models got you know, sort of developed a propensity to hard code test results, right?”
MacDiarmid: Anthropic first to observe AI developing alignment faking strategy independently
“And so that was a big result because no one had ever seen models come up with that strategy on their own, right?”
Siegler: Anthropic's valuation approaches $350B, nearing OpenAI's $500B
“And, you know, the most recent report has their new valuation at three hundred and fifty billion. So they're getting pretty close to where open AI is at five hundred billion.”
Kantrowitz: AI labs like Anthropic emerged from Silicon Valley group house culture
“And you've seen, like, companies like Anthropic come out of houses like these.”
Huet: A federal jury convicted OneTaste leaders of forced labor conspiracy
“At the end of that trial, you know, a jury unanimously decided to convict Nicole and Rachel of this crime, and so the two of them are in a jail in Brooklyn, awaiting sentencing, which could come later this year or early next, and they could face up to 20 years…”
Kantrowitz: Oracle's $100B debt makes it the most indebted big tech company
“Oracle's debt. Outstanding debt load surpassed a hundred billion, making it the most indebted big tech company with an investment grade rating. It is burning cash and will still need to borrow billions more to meet its dividend and capital spending commitments…”
Kantrowitz: Jeff Bezos launches Project Prometheus with $6.2 billion in funding
“He has started this company called Project Prometheus. It is being funded by six point, with 6.2 billion in funding, according to the Times, making it one of the most well-financed early stage startups in the world.”
Luria: Meta Lacks Enterprise Customers to Rent Out Excess Data Center Capacity
“Meta again is an unusual situation because they don't actually have business customers to rent this capacity to. It really is just Mr. Zuckerberg wanting a bigger and bigger toy.”
Luria: AI companies park diesel trucks behind the meter to power chips
“And then what these companies are doing is putting power, what they call behind the meter, which is to say generators and turbines and diesel trucks, because it's so lucrative that it's worth it for them to park 10 diesel trucks and run them so they can power …”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft owns OpenAI's intellectual property rights through at least 2030
“You also have Microsoft owning the rights to open AI's intellectual property at the time of IPO, right? It's going to go until 2030 or 20 32 in some areas.”
Siegler: Microsoft lost its right of first refusal on OpenAI infrastructure deals
“Microsoft had a right of first refusal on all of those, and they no longer have that you know, per their new agreements. And so OpenAI is for you to sort of go out and play the field as it were.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Converted to PBC With Microsoft Owning 27%
“The artificial intelligence startup has turned its for-profit subsidiary into a public benefit corporation of which Microsoft will own 27%.”
Roy: OpenAI Committed to $250B in Additional Azure Cloud Purchases
“The deal has open AI committing to purchase an additional two hundred fifty billion dollars worth of Azure cloud computing services.”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft retains access to OpenAI models post-AGI under new deal
“Under the new agreement, Microsoft will keep getting access to OpenAI's models after AGI is reached with appropriate safety guardrails.”
Roy: OpenAI Must Launch Ads Ahead of Any IPO
“They're just laying this groundwork and infrastructure for just lots of ads, and I actually think they're gonna have to release this ahead of any kind of IPO because, you know, online advertising, especially whatever that next wave of AI platform advertising i…”
Kelleher: 90% of Surveyed Okta Clients Deploy Agents, 10% Secure Them
“So our customers that we spoke with told us over 90% of them today have agents that are deployed in production. Yet only 10% of them believe that the agents in production are currently being appropriately managed and secured.”
Roy: OpenAI Hired Over 100 Ex-Bankers for Project Mercury
“OpenAI, apparently there's something called Project Mercury, where they've hired over a hundred ex-bankers to train their models, to basically, you know, like, do that tagging work, good answer, not good answer, You know, start helping like the models understa…”