The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,136 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Morris: OpenAI redefined Stargate to include any rented data center
“Part of the reason they're able to claim Stargate is off the ground is because they changed the definition of it. Previously, it had to involve open AI, Oracle, the data center provider, SoftBank, the financier and MGX, which is a huge New sovereign wealth or …”
Morris: Suleyman's Healthcare AI Diagnosed Rare Ailments 4x Better Than Doctors
“And what they were able to do is take the most complicated sort of doc Like house level, you know, the TV show house level, weird medical ailments that affect one person every six years. And they were able to diagnose them, you know, at a rate like four times …”
Morris: AI Overviews and Mode Are Increasing Google Search Engagement
“The way that they've integrated AI into search, whether it's the overviews, the bullet points at the top of your results, or the AI mode, which you can click on, and then it just behaves like GPT, Gemini, or Claude. It's actually Boosting engagement. People ar…”
Morris: Google Will Lose Exclusive Safari Search Deal from Antitrust Remedies
“They're going to have to share more data with rivals. They're going to lose the right to be Apple's exclusive search engine provider on Safari across its devices.”
Morris: Tesla Board Is Preparing a New Pay Package for Musk
“We reported that far from looking for a new CEO the board is actually looking at giving him a new pay package.”
Salesforce expects zero AI revenue growth in 2025 despite agent rebrand
“The information reported a few months ago that Salesforce does not expect any growth from AI this year. That is absolutely bonkers for a company that's rebranded, and I paraphrase here, as an agent first company.”
OpenAI is directly undercutting Microsoft's enterprise subscription deals
“OpenAI has been undercutting Microsoft in deals, selling their models, and undercutting their enterprise subscription deals.”
OpenAI must convert to for-profit by year-end to keep SoftBank funding
“By the end of the year, OpenAI must convert to a for-profit entity, or SoftBank does not have to give them more than twenty billion dollars total.”
Kantrowitz: Trump Administration Froze Billions in Grants to Harvard, Cornell, Northwestern
“The Trump administration has frozen 2.2 billion in grants to Harvard. They have frozen a billion in funding to Cornell. Seven hundred ninety million to Northwestern. They're looking at Johns Hopkins. 3.3 billion.”
Kantrowitz: Grok 4 beats all models on ARC-AGI by significant margin
“And then of course in the Arc AGI test, it outperforms Every model by a significant margin.”
Petersen: Importers Classify Products As Computers to Evade 30% Tariffs
“Computers are exempted right now. There's a computer and everything, so everybody in the world is trying to claim that this is actually a computer. It's not a watch, it's a computer, and then you get, you know, how do you get I've seen a lot of different peopl…”
Petersen: Warehouse robots most likely will not be humanoid
“Humanoid actually doesn't solve a lot of problems because you don't get more density out of your warehouse. You want real estate density. You want to be able to stack the goods all the way to the ceiling, jam them in. So it's more, the form factor is not going…”
Microsoft's AI doctor reduces diagnostic costs by ordering fewer unnecessary tests
“The other thing that we see, for example, is that it's able to optimize for cost as well and reduce the cost by avoiding unnecessary tests versus the humans.”
Smith: AI-vulnerable occupations continue rising as share of US jobs
“Returning to a measure reintroduced in two, 20, 23, we examine American data on employment by occupation, singling out workers that are believed to be vulnerable to AI. These are white collar employees, including people in back office support, financial operat…”
Noah Smith: US Wage Inequality Has Decreased for Over Ten Years
“Right around the time that this thesis started becoming very well accepted and popular, wage inequality started to go down and wages started rising more at the bottom of the distribution than at the middle or top. And so we've seen that for now over 10 years. …”
Smith: China is manufacturing 100 nuclear weapons per year
“China's building a hundred nuclear weapons a year.”
Kantrowitz: Federal Judge Ruled Anthropic's AI Book Training Was Legal
“A federal judge in San Francisco ruled late on Monday that Anthropics use of books without permission to train its artificial intelligence system was legal under US copyright law.”
Anthropic trained on 7 million pirated books, risking massive copyright damages
“This is the ruling said that they have more than seven million pirated books and U S copyright law says willful copyright infringement can justify statutory damages of up to 150,000 dollars per work.”
Kantrowitz: MIT Study Found ChatGPT Users Showed Lowest Brain Engagement
“The study divided 54 subjects, 18 to thirty-nine-year-olds,
From the Boston area into three groups and asked them to write several SAT essays using OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google search engine, and nothing at all.
Researchers used an EEG.
I guess that's, yeah,
it's …”
Kantrowitz: Study Shows 30% AI Code Adoption Increased Productivity Only 2.4%
“There is a new paper that just came out there where they looked at a company going from zero to 30% of its code written by AI and a key measure of productivity only went up by 2.4%.”
Kantrowitz: Meta agrees to $14.8B 49% stake in Scale AI
“Meta has agreed to take a 49%
stake in the data labeling firm Scale AI for 14.8 billion.
Meta will send the cash to Scale's existing shareholders and place the startup CEO Alexander Wang, former Big Technology podcast guest in a top position inside Meta.
Meta…”
Roy: Meta AI Discover tab publishes full user chats and voice recordings
“If you go to the Discover tab, it posts entireties of chats from people that probably don't realize that it's being posted, and it's like, as a social network, even crazier, it posts people's voices prompting Meta AI, so it has like an audio clip, audio messag…”
Kantrowitz: Judge orders OpenAI to preserve ChatGPT chats for NYT lawsuit
“The New York Times is telling OpenAI, has gotten a judge to rule in favor of this position, that OpenAI has to preserve its chats, because people who are using OpenAI's ChatGPT to, ah, go around the New York Times paywall, ah, may delete those chats. And there…”
Meta and Anduril partner to develop military AR/VR hardware
“Luckey's defense company Andrel and Meta said Thursday that they will together build a line of new rugged helmets, glasses, and other wearables that provide a virtual reality or augmented reality experience.”
Anduril and Meta's Eagle Eye system integrates AI models with battlefield sensors
“The system called Eagle Eye will carry sensors that enhance soldiers' hearing and vision, detecting drones flying miles away or sighting hidden targets, for instance. It will also let soldiers operate and interact with AI-powered weapon systems. Andro's autono…”
Anthropic Stopped Chatbot Investment to Focus on Coding and Complex Tasks
“Anthropic stopped investing in chatbots at the end of the year and has instead focused on improving Claude's ability To do complex tasks like research and coding, even writing whole code bases, according to Jared Kaplan, Anthropics Chief Science Officer.”
Anthropic: Claude Opus 4 Blackmails Engineers in 84%+ of Replacement Simulations
“In these scenarios, Anthropic says Claude Opus Four will often attempt to blackmail the engineer by threatening to reveal the affair if the replacement goes through. Anthropic notes that the model tried to blackmail engineers, 84% of the time when the replacem…”
Hanna says xAI uses methane generators to power its Memphis supercomputer
“I would also say that speaking about existing effects, there's also a lot of reporting coming out of Memphis right now, especially around the methane generators that XAI has been using to power a particular supercomputer there called Colossus there, and specif…”
Bender says Microsoft abandoned net-zero carbon goals because of generative AI
“I would say that we've got Brad Smith at Microsoft giving up on the plans to become a net zero carbon since the beginning of Microsoft, and he said this ridiculous thing about we had a moonshot to get there, and turns out with generative AI, the moon is five t…”
Roy: Cook backed CFO over Schiller on 27% App Store fee
“So in 2023, after the initial decision, Phil Schiller had actually said that maybe we move to a model where Apple takes no commission, but apparently Apple's finance chief had come up with the idea around 27%. Tim Cook sided with the finance chief, Luca Maestr…”
Roy: Tesla would have operated at a Q1 loss without regulatory credits
“They would have been operating at a loss. The net income of four hundred nine million dollars is only because, again, they got five hundred ninety five million dollars in regulatory credit sales.”
Kantrowitz: Many GPUs are transshipped through Singapore to China
“Clearly there's a lot of GPUs that have gone through Singapore and then go right to China.”
Parker: Semiconductor stocks will outperform when the market recovers
“I guess what I'm convinced of, because of the fact that 19, the last 20 times when the market did recover tech work, because semis have sold off so much, and because they ultimately are growing faster relative to the economy than they did previously, that semi…”
Petersen: Cabinet secretary indicated administration will negotiate deals on tariffs
“I believe there will be deals cut. I don't know if in time to pause the tariffs altogether, but and I believe that because a cabinet secretary told me that there would be a pause, a negotiation, I should say, not a pause, but he said two weeks ago that this wa…”
Petersen: Asian e-commerce giants will absorb duties if de minimis ends
“My suspicion from having analyzed a few of these and working with them is that the companies will keep, keep going and just have to pay the duties.”
Suleyman: GPT-4 and GPT-4o Efficiency Will Improve 100x
“So I expect that to happen for GPT-IV, GPT-IV-O and all of the other models down the road.”
OpenAI Finalizes $40B Funding Round at $300B Valuation
“OpenAI has finalized forty billion dollars in funding at a 300 Billion dollar valuation. That is according to Bloomberg.”
Dartmouth trial shows AI chatbot TheraBot matches traditional therapy outcomes
“There is a study out of Dartmouth, again, from the information, that says that a custom-built AI chatbot called TheraBot reduced patient symptoms at a level comparable to traditional therapy. People with depression reported 51% better, feeling 51% better on av…”
OpenAI plans to release its first open-weight reasoning model since GPT-2
“OpenAI is planning to release an open weight language model in the coming months. This is from Sam Altman. We are excited to release a powerful new open weight language model. With reasoning in the next coming months, we want to talk to developers about how to…”
McCullough: Roughly 80 percent of China's AI data centers sit unused
“And there was an article that I did this week about how in China something like 80% of the build out of their data centers for AI is, is currently unused.”
Kantrowitz: Big Tech will not pull back AI CapEx, spending over $300B
“The capex pullback. I don't see it happening. We have big tech that's going to spend three hundred billion on capex this year plus. Much of that is going to AI, open AI, there's rumors now that, or reports, really, that they're about to raise forty billion dol…”
Hendrycks: Recent AI reasoning models score in 90th percentile on wet-lab guidance
“We are finding that with the most recent reasoning models quite unlike the models from two years ago, like the initial GPT-IV, the most recent reasoning models are getting around 90th percentile compared to these expert level virologists in their area of exper…”
Hendrycks: AI models lied 20% to 60% of the time under pressure
“So we have a paper out last week, we're just measuring the extent to which they're deceptive. And in the scenarios we have, like all the models were in these sorts of scenarios under, you know, slight pressure to lie, not being told to lie, but just some sligh…”
LeCun: Meta's V-JEPA exhibits physical common sense by detecting impossible events
“And you measure the prediction error as you show the video to the system. And when something impossible occurs, the prediction error goes, goes through the roof. And so you can detect if the system has integrated some idea of what, you know, is possible physic…”
Baszucki claims short-seller Hindenburg Research is no longer in business
“It's interesting that Hindenburg is no longer in business.”
Lebaredian: Video AI models fail basic physics like object permanence
“One of the basic things is object permanence. If you direct the video to move the camera, point away, and come back, Objects that were there at the beginning of the video are no longer there or they're different, right? And so that is such a fundamental violat…”
Demis Hassabis acknowledges AI progress is slowing and taking longer
“Even Demis, you know, when you talk to him, he noted that he doesn't necessarily believe in, in, you know, a wall being hit, but he did acknowledge that things are slowing and it'll just take longer to get more, you know, juice out of the squeeze as it were.”
Big Tech cannot cut AI CapEx due to catastrophic FOMO risk
“I think that it won't be so easy also for, as I noted, for all these companies to pull back spend because they've already committed to buying X number of H. 200 chips, and then soon enough, we'll get the next iteration, you know, announced down the road, and s…”