The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,235 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 147 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Levie: Governments will evaluate and green-light AI model releases within 3-5 years
“I think practically in the next three to five years, we probably have to end up in an environment where models do get evaluated by the government. There is a sort of collaborative approach between the government and research and the labs. You know, the governm…”
Gardizi: OpenAI will not deploy 10 gigawatts in the next few years
“Even if you think of open AI, for example, announcing a 10 gigawatt project you know, we're not going to see 10 gigawatts in the next couple of years, or they're going to sort of spread out that bet.”
Brockman: Every AI provider will sell out all their compute
“I do think there's a bit of an attractor state where just like from a business model perspective, every provider sells out all their compute. I think that is just like the world that we're heading towards, where there just is not going to be enough compute to …”
Brockman predicts AI stack prices and margins will continue increasing
“And again, I think it's going to keep happening where because everyone has this avalanche of demand that you're going to see prices and margins and all of these things continuing to increase at various levels of the stack.”
Kantrowitz: AI platforms will inevitably use personal interaction data for targeted ads
“So will AIs build an amazing sort of profile of you based off of all the personal data and then use that for ads? Most certainly.”
Roy: Google Gemini will monetize via ads, but Anthropic will avoid them
“At least anthropic is not, I mean, I don't think they're going in that direction at all. Google and Gemini, Obviously, 100% will”
DeepSeek's Enterprise Growth Spike Unlikely To Withstand Rival Price Cuts
“Only about .4% of businesses are using it. Again, that's up from .1. So, Forex increase, but it's extremely small, and I think it's not going to be very durable, given that OpenAI and Anthropic are well positioned to respond to that with some price cuts.”
SpaceX lacks earnings to justify its $2.2 trillion valuation for years
“It's a 2.2 trillion dollar company. It's not going to have earnings that justify that at all for years.”
Himel: AI wearables will fail without existing analog adoption habits
“If you don't see a lot of people doing that already with analog versions, I think it's unlikely that you're gonna see an AI version take off.”
Himel: Wearables will eventually become the best form factor for AI
“And we believe that wearables will be the best form factor eventually for the AI. Because they're always with you, they can see what you see, they can hear what you hear, and there's something you can talk to throughout the day when you need it, and they can b…”
Himel: Wearables will become ubiquitous without completely replacing smartphones
“At some point, we think that they'll be ubiquitously used by people providing a ton of value. That doesn't mean phones are gonna go away, but I think you'll see wearables be used for some of the things that you do on phones today. And a bunch of things that yo…”
Siegler: AI agent landscape will fragment across multiple walled-garden tools
“I worry that we're going to not get a seamless move into like a one single place where we can do all of this, like the sort of the pie in the sky version that you're talking about, where there's one tool, but instead we have to use like Three or four different…”
Siegler: OpenAI Faces Listing Trouble if Anthropic IPOs First
“If OpenAI goes out, if Anthropic goes out before OpenAI does, OpenAI is in a lot of trouble from a public listing perspective, just because we even talked about this when it was still just the notion that they would have a better bottom line, right? Like that …”
Hinton: AI will probably cause massive unemployment
“The societal risks, like I believe it's probably going to cause massive unemployment. Nobody knows for sure, but that's going to be terrible for society.”
Hinton: AI will eventually read nearly all medical scans
“I still think in terms of reading scans that'll be done more and more by AI. And in the end, AI will be doing, reading nearly all the scans. Maybe in a few very tricky cases, radiologists will be consulted.”
Costolo: SpaceX could be worth over $2T on day one
“When SpaceX goes public, and I think it'll actually, could you could, it could end up being worth over two trillion dollars on day one, whether that's a fake price or not.”
Costolo: OpenAI will pop on IPO day but face intense quarterly scrutiny
“It will still do really, really well on day one because people are going to be like, it's the next stigma. It's the next Cerebrus. I can't, I, you know, I haven't been able to buy secondary before I want to be an investor. You have to own one of these things, …”
Costolo: AI data centers will stall without public buy-in from CEOs
“Again, writ large across the country, it goes back to the Darios and the Sams, et cetera, need to start painting a picture to the country about why this is great for us, or a lot of these data centers aren't going to get built.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Anthropic are gearing up to file for IPOs
“OpenAI and Anthropic as both gear up towards filing for IPOs. Maybe even this year we could potentially even see the paperwork for OpenAI come through as you and I record today, Ranjan.”
Roy: Claude will never repeat its previous six-month revenue growth
“The graph of revenue growth for Claude for the last six months, we will never see again. It was just something where no one was checking anything.”
Kantrowitz: AI communication failures will cause political moratoriums and data center blocks
“Like, you're not, the botching of the storytelling on this front, and you know, we talk a lot about comms, so fine, get the criticism, but like, this is gonna have real implications. You're gonna have candidates talking about kill switches, moratoriums, you're…”
Plouffe: Vance will break from Trump and Sacks on AI by 2027
“I believe that J.D. Vance will separate from Sachs and Trump on AI by, you know, first or second quarter of twenty-twenty-seven. Not all the way, but he's gonna have to.”
Plouffe: Mechanized robot battalions will make nations enter more wars
“You're going to have fully mechanized battalions. And what does that do? Where some countries have that and some don't. And, or, if everybody eventually gets it, my view is, you just have to be a casual student of history to know leaders like conflict. We'll h…”
Plouffe: Autonomous vehicles will be biggest public health win since anti-smoking
“I think autonomous vehicles, I mean, if they're going to get adopted on scale, both trucking and for passenger use over time, it'll be the biggest public health victory since the efforts to cease smoking. By, you know, we have, it's the greatest reason that pe…”
Cherny: AI Agents Will Destroy Switching Costs as a Software Moat
“Some modes get less important, and this is, for example, switching costs, because if you want to switch from vendor A to vendor B, you can, you know, you can just ask Quad to do that, and Quad is going to get better and better over time at it.”
Cherny: AI coding models will eventually form a self-reinforcing loop
“Quad is starting to generate its own ideas for what to build next for QuadCode, but it's, you know, it's not always good ideas, and I still generate most of the ideas, and, you know, at some point it's gonna change. The model's gonna improve, and it's gonna be…”
Kantrowitz: Altman believes AI-native products will beat Google's bolt-on approach
“Basically there's a difference between products that are AI native and products that you bolt AI onto. And I believe that AI native products will win. And therefore Google bolting AI onto its existing products will lose.”
Kantrowitz: Google Cloud Will Sell OpenAI Models Within Months
“I think Google Cloud is going to start selling open AI models within the next couple of months based off of, you know, just kind of a hunch, right? So they're going to be the infrastructure layer that enables all three big models.”
Dolen: Enterprise org charts will narrow into spindles within five years
“And so, yes, we're gonna go from pyramid to more like, you know, more like the spindle or the super narrow, you know, sale itself, but That's gonna be the transition that happens probably in the next two to five years.”
SpaceX will hold its initial public offering before OpenAI and Anthropic
“SpaceX will be the one that IPO is first out of this. I think we could both agree there.”
Anthropic will likely raise $50 billion at a $900 billion valuation
“I will note Anthropic is likely gonna raise at least one more round. It looks like they're gonna raise fifty billion dollars at a nine hundred billion free money valuation.”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic and OpenAI will both have trillion-dollar IPOs
“We're looking at, they're both, Anthropik and OpenAI are both gonna have trillion dollar IPOs, and we'll have many large companies, I think, that will follow them in the generative AI world.”
Shevelenko: Codex and proprietary AI assistants will never run rival models
“So the one thing that Codex is never going to be able to support is running Gemini models. You know, they will always be in the GPT family. Same thing for, you know, Claude, like they're not gonna, you know, have GPT models. Gemini is not gonna have Grok model…”
Siegler: Apple Could Win AI Era Through iPhone Hardware Advantage
“I do still think that there is a very good chance that Apple ends up a quote unquote winner of the AI movement simply because of the iPhone, because it's the best device out there to run models potentially and to run these applications.”
Kantrowitz: Apple Will Make Big Acquisitions in John Ternus's First Year
“I think Apple's gonna make some big acquisitions in Ternus' first year for him to set the tone that it's gonna be different, and I think that's good.”
Siegler: Google's Full Stack Ownership Provides Massive Cost Advantages Over OpenAI
“Google's just overall owning of, again, that entire stack when it comes to the infrastructure is going to give them massive cost advantages over what OpenAI is going to be able to offer up at that steady state.”
Cuban: Seat-licensed SaaS is doomed without exclusive proprietary data
“So I think if a company has IP that as part of their software, and when I say IP, not just, okay, our software is a little better, faster, cheaper, more, this is a database of things that you can't get anywhere else, that they're not making available to AI to …”
Cuban: Compute will get cheaper faster than capex projections expect
“The ability to process is going to get faster, cheaper, right? And it's going to happen faster and quicker than people expect. And so I think a lot of the numbers that they're throwing out there aren't going to come to fruition, you know, which is why I say th…”
Cuban: Patent filings will decline because AI models train on them
“And what you'll, you're starting to see happen, and will happen even more, if you own intellectual property, you're gonna see fewer people applying for patents, because the minute you apply for the patent, it's available to everybody, which means every model c…”
Cuban: Entry-level software engineering jobs at big companies will vanish
“If you try to work in a big company and become an entry-level software engineer or programmer, that's just not gonna be there because the people in that big company, they're gonna have training, they're gonna have older people that are in the IT department tha…”
Kantrowitz: Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery will inevitably merge
“Well, first of all, it's just going to get worse for two reasons. One is we're starting to see consolidation in the space. Like you have Netflix as this clear winter and then and then Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery are going to tie up.”
Brockman: Massive infrastructure bets are still insufficient to prevent compute scarcity
“Still not enough. We're gonna feel the scarcity. We're gonna feel it. We're feeling it already. You can sense it right now on people who are trying to use these agents and just simply cannot, you know, hitting the rate limits. So we're working on behalf of our…”
Stern: John Ternus's hardware focus will be great for Apple
“Now it kind of flips back. It goes back to someone who's very interested in the hardware, the design, the actual products. Which, you know, can only, I think, be great for Apple as the company that makes the best tech out there.”
Roy: Expect more leaks questioning OpenAI's leadership ahead of an IPO
“I think you're going to be seeing more of these kind of leaks at some point, because there has to be investors that there's a lot of money in it. There's a lot of kind of lack of clear strategy still, even after they're supposed to kind of bring focus to the c…”
Saint-Marc: Superintelligence will emerge from multi-agent scaling, not single models
“We had this strong thesis and vision that the intelligence will come not just from building ever smarter and ever bigger and more powerful single agents But more through what we call horizontal scaling. So we distributed systems, a lot of agents coming togethe…”
Kantrowitz: AI labs will eventually have to choose between apps and APIs
“I think you will eventually have to make a bet on what your business is. It's very tough to sustain both for a while, and who do you want to have the best models in that case?”
MG Siegler predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will not IPO in 2026
“I actually predict as one of my year end predictions, I predicted that neither OpenAI nor Anthropic will go public in 20, 26.”
Fidji Simo could eventually replace Sam Altman as OpenAI CEO
“That's sort of why I've always
Sort of had in the back of my head that I would not be shocked if Fiji Simo is eventually sort of overall CEO and they just sort of have Sam Altman there because he's a vital still obviously from a fundraise perspective from so…”