The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,883 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 20 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Stamos: White House Rules Cause US AI Models to Refuse Fixing Code
“That's what's driving people insane right now in the defensive industry, is that because of the White House, American models are refusing to help fix code. They are refusing to help us find our bugs and fix them. Thanks to the White House's actions.”
Stamos: The Presidential Administration Halted Government AI Safety Standards Development
“We've lost, there was a process in place to create standards for this kind of stuff. That process was stopped by the current administration.”
Kantrowitz: China's open-source AI is at most four to five months behind
“It seems to show that China's open source movement is not the 10 or 15 months behind US AI, but maybe four or five months at the very, at the most, maybe even less than that.”
Gardizy: OpenAI Is Developing In-House Chips and Using Cerebras Hardware
“Yeah, yeah, they are. They're using chips from other companies. Cerebris is a good example, and they have their own in-house chip.”
Cherney: US chip designers have no real contingency plan for Taiwan invasion
“Chip companies, the design companies in the US do not plan for this. The contingency plan, excuse me, is something along the lines of like, well, we're all kind of screwed if China invades, which, OK, but like, there's no real plan there.”
Cherney: China Cannot Effectively Produce Sub-Leading-Edge Transistors Without EUV Machines
“They run up to up to the limit of like, they can't buy UV machines. The big ones that Lauren was just talking about. So if you can't buy those things, it's just fundamentally difficult to make transistors below a certain size and they can't do it effectively.”
Goode: NVIDIA Invested in CoreWeave, Which Used the Capital to Buy Chips
“They have become a major investor in CoreWeave, and then CoreWeave is using that money to buy NVIDIA chips.”
Kutylowski: AI translation for major language pairs is pretty much flawless
“And like right now, if you look at the quality of those solutions, if you take a well written document, and if you look at the language pair that is like one of the major language pairs, like let's say English to French or English to Spanish, or some of the bi…”
Anthropic Accuses Alibaba of Distilling Its Models
“Anthropic just accused Alibaba of distilling their models recently.”
Audit Finds $1.7M in Mistaken AI Overcharges, Mostly From Anthropic
“Between March and June, Vaudit audited bills sent to 60 companies totaling thirty-four million, mostly for usage of Anthropik's cloud code, and found about 1.7 million in mistaken overcharges.”
Commerce Department export controls barred foreign Anthropic developers from their models
“The Commerce Department signs an order saying that the models are designated export controlled and that no foreigner, including the Foreign citizens who worked and actually built the models themselves can touch them.”
Frontier AI models matched elite human bug finders last year
“This Rubicon was crossed well last year with the Opus four series with the GPT five series. That is when the models became better or as good or better than the best human bug finders and not just as good as the best Bug finders.”
GPT-5 and Chinese AI model Kimi readily find bugs and write exploits
“You can just ask GPT-V to go find these bugs and it will go do it for you. You can just ask Kimi, which is an open source Chinese model. It will go write you these exploits.”
China's open-weight GLM 5.2 rivals top Anthropic and OpenAI models
“It is within percentage points of the top closed models from anthropic and open AI in a bunch of things a bunch of evals. We don't know how good it is at bug finding yet, so there hasn't been any good testing here, but encoding a bunch of other intelligence ta…”
Anthropic's Glasswing participants found 10,000 security bugs but fixed only 1,000
“They have found like 10,000 bugs. Now, one of the problems with Glasswing is they found like 10,000 bugs, but they've only fixed a thousand.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Recently Raised $122 Billion
“OpenAI recently raised a hundred and twenty two billion. That's three or four times larger than the largest IPO, pre-SpaceX.”
Gardizi: OpenAI uses alternative chips and develops in-house silicon to diversify
“They're using chips from other companies. Cerebris is a good example, and they have their own in-house chip. So I think maybe publicly they're doing some big announcements with NVIDIA, and I believe it's five gigawatts they have to deploy in the next couple of…”
Goode: Intel Fab 52 matches TSMC 2nm technology but at fraction of scale
“This was the Intel fab 52, which is their most advanced fab. It's a two nanometer fab, and it is on the level of what TSMC does in terms of two nanometer, but of course, at a fraction of the scale of what TSMC does.”
Goode: CoreWeave uses Nvidia investment money to buy Nvidia chips
“They're at the point where they have become a major investor in CoreWeave, and then CoreWeave is using that money to buy NVIDIA chips.”
Ranjan Roy: DeepSeek and Chinese models are now in almost every agent conversation
“The conversation around moving towards deep seek and adding it into your agentic process or adding Chinese models did not exist in any conversation I was in 12 months ago and now is in almost every conversation, at least as an option, because cost has become s…”
Stamos: Frontier AI matched top human bug finders in 2025
“This Rubicon was crossed well last year with the Opus four series with the GPT five series. That is when the models became better or as good or better than the best human bug finders and not just as good as the best Bug finders.”
Stamos: Glasswing found 10,000 bugs but only fixed 1,000
“Glasswing is they found like 10,000 bugs, but they've only fixed a thousand. Right. So like you do not want a 10 to one ratio of the bugs you found to fixed.”
Stamos: Running Opus 4.8 will catch 70% of critical bugs
“Use Opus four eight right now, and I guarantee you'll get 70% of the bugs you care about.”
Stamos: NIST research proves models cannot be fully immune to jailbreaks
“No, there's actually a paper from NIST. It's like a kind of a Godel completeness theorem kind of paper that basically says it's impossible to make a model that is completely not jailbreakable.”
Krieger: Top token users do not correlate with top performers
“We found that there's not a lot of correlation between
[10288] Mike Krieger: Like the person who's using the most tokens and like the person that I like, it's an interesting thought. I just made you at your companies like write down your 10 most productive peo…”
Krieger: Anthropic found little correlation between employee token usage and actual productivity.
“We found that there's not a lot of correlation between
Like the person who's using the most tokens and like the person that I like, it's an interesting thought.
I just made you at your companies like write down your 10 most productive people that you think a…”
Claude Code Has Overtaken Cursor For Majority AI Coding Market Share
“Cursor comes out, and within about a year, it has the majority of the market. Then, by the way, Cloud Code comes out, and then now Cloud Code has majority of the market.”
Seat-Based Contracts Still Represent Up To 75% Of Software Spend
“Seat-based contracts are still the vast majority of spend from most software. It's like, 60 to 75%. The rest of it is really just flat platform subscriptions. Metered usage is extremely small, like, five percent. Less than five percent.”
AI Vendor Subscription Revenue Is Growing Faster Than Token Spend
“And then notably, even for the AI companies, they're actually growing on subscription spend faster than they're growing on token spend.”
Kantrowitz: Over 20% of SpaceX IPO allocation went to retail investors
“So more than 20% of the IPO allocation went to retail investors, which means, and this is sort of where the negative side of it is, the risks typically borne out by government and venture capitalists are now being Born out by everyday investors”
Roy: Anthropic and OpenAI now explicitly retain enterprise data for 30 days
“Enterprise agreements, the anthropic and open AI, as well as everyone else, like claim no data retention. Now they're just explicitly saying that they're going to for 30 days and like, that's a huge deal.”
Himel: Meta has not launched facial recognition on smart glasses
“We don't have a feature called that or that does that feature that's launched in the glasses.”
Siegler: Tying Gemini's crawler to Search gives Google massive content negotiation leverage
“Google's crawler is also tied to Google search. And so if you're turning off the crawler for Gemini you're potentially turning off Google search, which basically no one is willing to do at this point. And gives Google, you know, a huge leverage point. In, in a…”
Hinton notes a chatbot recently produced an original Erdős mathematical proof
“For example, I think yesterday it was announced that a chatbot had come up with an interesting mathematical proof of one of the Erdos's conjectures that impressed mathematicians. It was original. It wasn't just searching the literature.”
Hinton: Almost no resources go toward making AI care about humans
“We will very much like them to care about us. And we'd like them to care about us more than they care about themselves. And almost no resources are going into, how do you do that?”
Anthropic's annualized revenue surged to $14 billion by February 2026
“In January, 20, 25, it was a billion. May, 20, 25, three billion. June, 20, 25, four billion. August, 20, 25, five billion. October, seven billion. December, eight to ten billion. This year, February, 2026, fourteen billion. March, 2026, nineteen billion. Apri…”
Intelligence AI: Only 18% of AI coding token spend yields shipped products
“For companies using advanced AI coding tools, only 18% of spending on tokens It's translating into shipped coding products that reach real users, according to Intelligence AI, a startup that aggregated data, and more than 2000 companies using AI, using advance…”
Roy: Alphabet and Amazon Profits Rely Heavily on Anthropic Paper Markups
“Last quarter Alphabet, parent company, Google reported 62.6 billion dollars in profit. Google is a cash machine. They always have been. 28.7 billion of that was a paper markup on Anthropic. Amazon, 30.3 billion in profit. 16.8 billion, same Anthropic paper gai…”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft and Oracle Pipelines Heavily Depend on OpenAI Commitments
“Microsoft had four, has 49% Of its 62, six hundred twenty seven billion future backlog tied to OpenAI. Oracle is 54% of its five hundred and fifty three billion pipeline, depending on OpenAI alone.”
Costolo: OpenAI commitments exceed $1T without revenue to back them
“When you go and run on the numbers, it adds up to crazy over a trillion dollars worth of commitments that don't have the, you know, and you don't see the revenue model or growth yet to back it up.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Averaged 905M WAU, Missing 1B Year-End Target
“OpenAI's weekly active users for the quarter averaged about nine hundred five million users. Although the company hit about nine hundred twenty million weekly active users in February, the lower average figure for the quarter implies that usage during the rest…”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft Plans to Cancel Claude Code Licenses for Copilot CLI
“Microsoft, according to the verge, Starts canceling cloud code license licenses. Microsoft first started opening up access to cloud code in December. It was part of an effort to get product manager, project managers, designers, and other employees to experimen…”
Kantrowitz: xAI rented Colossus 1 compute cluster to Anthropic
“You just rented your AI warehouse Colossus One to Anthropic.”
Anthropic Engineers Increased Code Output by Hundreds of Percent With Claude Code
“What happened with Claude is now many companies, including Anthropic, and all of our biggest customers are reporting gains on the order of hundreds of percentage points. And I think the last number that we reported is the amount of code written per engineer at…”
Cherny: Multi-Claude Automated Safety Checks Are Now Safer Than Human Approvals
“Essentially we found both in the laboratory setting, and now we're finding in the wild, this is safer than what we had before. So as a user, it's a really nice benefit, because you don't have to sit there and say yes over and over, and actually the result is b…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI's private valuation stalled over eight months while Anthropic tripled
“Open AI's valuation hasn't changed in eight months over the private markets while Anthropix has gone up three X.”
Canney: ServiceNow scaled from 14K to 30K employees without adding HR headcount
“But out of that process and governance, we were able to come up with the use cases that deployed agents and AI into our people operations space, and it did double the output, more than double the output of what our people could do in people operations to serve…”
Dolen: Enterprises can now use AI agents to automate back-office finance tasks
“You can right now build a Gentix that they're interoperating with your ERP, interoperating with some of your custom built tools to do a lot of the things that historically you had people doing, right? You're checking the, you know, the actuals to accruals, you…”