The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,477 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 167 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hoffman: OpenAI's TBPN acquisition was driven entirely by Sam Altman's preference
“This is just a thing Sam wanted to do. It seems to me that the simplest solution is, is the easiest one. And, you know, they are going to have to you know, follow a much broader public discourse strategy to convince the huge swaths of the public that really ju…”
Hoffman: AI is used as air cover for pandemic-era corporate layoffs
“I, my theory on this is that AI is an excuse For companies to do layoffs, just like the tech isn't good enough. It isn't embedded enough workflows to like maybe outside of tech companies, you know, Mark Zuckerberg has talked a lot about kind of what a meta eng…”
Kantrowitz: Iranian strikes disabled AWS availability zones in Bahrain and Dubai
“Iran has hit enough sites in Bahrain and Dubai that belong to Amazon that there are a couple of availability zones in those regions that are hard down, according to some internal communication that I was able to see, and that they're going to be unavailable fo…”
Brockman: Competitors Scrambled Too Late for Compute When None Remained Available
“I think that what we have seen is that for other players, that they kind of realized that probably late last year and started scrambling to see what compute is available, and there really wasn't any”
Brockman Confirms Contribution to MAGA Inc. Alongside Bipartisan PAC Donations
“So the way I look at this, so my wife and I made that donation. We've donated to bipartisan super PACs as well.”
Warner: Entry-level analyst jobs for business graduates are gone
“Those are the jobs that you come out and you go work for a firm for a couple years as a young analyst or whatever. Those jobs are gone.”
Warner: DHS denied a Global Entry pass over protest attendance
“I know I was, I raised real concerns about Palantir and the six other technology companies that have taken contracts with Department of Homeland Security, and I've been extraordinarily concerned that, you know, DHS or ICE, as we saw, People targeted in Minneso…”
Yen: AIs will soon discern who we are better than psychologists
“AIs are going to get better at discerning who we are than probably even a psychologist.”
Yen: Frontier AI training costs will plummet to $1M in years
“What I mean by this is today, if you want to train a top of the line, you know, our frontier model, that might cost you a couple billion dollars.
But in a couple of years, that might be fifty million to, you know, a hundred million.
And then a few more years o…”
Kantrowitz: Tech's $700B AI CapEx Threatens To Hollow Out Software Industry
“If that seven hundred billion in capex that the tech giants are spending this year on AI pays off, you're going to have this entire Hollowing out of the software industry of many, maybe other industries”
Horowitz: Pentagon gave Anthropic six-month off-ramp because it lacks alternative vendors
“They laid out this six-month off-ramp period for, like, real national security use cases, in part because they rely on Anthropix technology right now because Anthropix is the only vendor. Like behind the current curtain in a classified environment.”
US military used Anthropic's Claude for targeting during Iran air attack
“Within hours of declaring that the federal government will end use of its artificial intelligence tools made by tech company Anthropik, President Trump launched a major air attack in Iran with the help of those very same tools. Commands around the world, inclu…”
Sam Altman is positioning OpenAI as a peace broker for Pentagon contracts
“He's trying to position this as like, they are the peace broker here, right? Like that they are the ones who are going to sort of iron out these differences between anthropic and the U S government by cutting their own deal that paves the path. To sort of do a…”
Levie: Altman's 2028 superintelligence timeline is totally reasonable
“I think that, that there's kind of, that seems to be totally reasonable based on the trajectory that we're on. And I would bet that, that Sam has an even a far higher bar for what his definition of, you know, intellectual or whatever the term was, then even I …”
OpenAI fired safety executive Ryan Beiermeister after she opposed AI erotica
“OpenAI has cut ties with one of its top safety executives on the grounds of sexual discrimination after she voiced opposition to the controversial rollout of AI Erotica in its ChatGPT product. The fast-growing artificial intelligence company fired the executiv…”
Adler: OpenAI skipped committed safety testing for GPT 5.3 Codex release
“And unfortunately, it seems like OpenAI's release of last week, GPT, 5.3 codex, one of the big breakthrough models we've been talking about. As I look over the evidence, It seems like open AI did not abide by the testing that they had committed to in various w…”
Ramaswamy: Closed US labs force American academics to use Chinese AI research
“What is happening right now is that it's the Chinese companies that are publishing their work. And what then happens is all the universities, all the students and professors in our country are looking at their work and figuring out how to build on top of it. A…”
Ramaswamy: Chinese open-source AI parity is a net positive for Western innovation
“So from a macro perspective, I would say that that is actually a positive because Mistral is going to figure out how to reverse engineer all of this stuff, stuff, and go one step forward, which will be good for Europe. And Reflection will figure out how to do …”
Roy: The Model of Charging High Prices for Narrow Software Is Dead
“These tools don't provide a ton of value. They, like, answered really specific problems, and that, like, software used to be take one really specific problem, own it, like, Charge people a lot of money to deliver relative value, but that's the kind of stuff th…”
Baratz claims rival quantum modalities cannot match D-Wave's speed and fidelity
“Frankly, I don't know how the other modalities compete at this point because they don't have the speed that our qubits have. I also don't know how the other superconducting companies compete because they don't have the fidelity. Error correction is going to be…”
Baratz calls industry claims of achieving logical qubits highly misleading
“You'll hear people say, oh, we have logical qubits. We have this many logical qubits. I want to be kind. That is a very misleading statement. These are not fully error-corrected qubits. They are small error correction. The number of compute terms that they can…”
Baratz claims all other quantum computing companies remain purely in R&D
“Unlike any other quantum computing company, which is entirely In the R&D and research experimentation mode, we have commercial systems, so we're also focused on building the business.”
Baratz predicts quantum computing will demonstrate AI energy efficiency by 2027
“I think we will start to see this benefit emerge this year or early next year.”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft and Nvidia committed up to $15B into Anthropic
“Microsoft and Nvidia this is according to your story, have committed to invest a total of up to fifteen billion in the company.”
Morris: Microsoft disclosed 45% of future Azure contracts are tied to OpenAI
“They revealed that they booked ten billion cash gain from the amount of cash OpenAI has on this balance sheet due to all these, like, huge fundraisings that they're doing. But they also said that 45% of their future Azure contracts were based on OpenAI.”
Morris: SpaceX is targeting a $50B raise at a $1.5T valuation
“Yeah, I mean, we're hearing 50, potentially raising fifty billion at a 1.5 trillion valuation.”
Demis Hassabis Rejects Yann LeCun's Stance That LLMs Are A Dead End
“No matter what camp you're in, we're gonna need Large foundation models as the key component of the final AGI systems. Of that, I'm sure. So, I don't, I'm not subscriber to someone like Jan LeCun who thinks, you know, that there's sort of some kind of dead end…”
Hassabis: AGI Must Mean Matching All Human Cognitive Capabilities
“I don't think AGI should be sort of turned into a marketing term or for commercial gain. I think there is always been a scientific definition of that. My definition of that is a system that that can exhibit all the cognitive capabilities humans can. And I mean…”
Baratz: D-Wave holds the only real-world quantum supremacy demonstration
“There is exactly one demonstration of true quantum supremacy on a useful real world problem that was done by D wave by our company. It was published in the peer reviewed journal science about a year ago. What we did was we demonstrated that our quantum compute…”
Baratz: Quantum Circuits' error-detecting superconducting qubits will win architecture race
“So we now have superconducting qubits that are a thousand times faster than trapped ion or neutral atom, but because of their inherent error detecting capability, they have qubit fidelity, just like trapped ion and neutral atom. Ah, that's the best of both wor…”
Ranjan Roy: OpenAI Will Crack LLM Advertising Ahead of Google
“I think OpenAI figures out LLM-based advertising ahead of Google.”
Mensch: AI competitors are investing billions in rapidly depreciating assets
“The challenge that we see with some of our competitors is that they're investing billions or hundreds of billions into creating assets that are deprecating very fast because those are commodities.”
Mensch: A single AGI system solving all problems will never exist
“There's no such thing as like one system that is going to be solving all of the problems of the world. And so at the end of the day, or you just don't believe in that context at all. It's never going to exist. I mean, there's, you have a wealth of problems, ju…”
Mensch: Open source is the only way to protect enterprise data assets
“It's also the only way in which you can create systems that are effectively using your, the folklore knowledge of your employees. That's the knowledge that you've accrued for decades. The only way in which to turn it into an asset that nobody gets access to is…”
Albergati: OpenAI chip push is about inference costs, not superintelligence
“So I think when you talk about like opening AI, building its own chips and data centers and all this stuff, that's all about like them for seeing the future where there's so many people using these things, those it's expensive to run in the data center. They'r…”
Albergati: Traditional web search is going to be gone
“I think traditional search is, like, is going to be just Gone.”
Cramer: Microsoft Azure's reported growth rate is overstated
“We need to see the real growth of Azure, which I think is overstated. Not, not, not illegal. The kind of thing that you have this weird confluence of Azure and whatever the hell they're doing it with the Sarah Fryer there.”
Cramer: OpenAI Has No Real Edge Over Competitors
“I don't think so, because they really don't have any real edge. You love your chat CPT. I love my Gemini.”
Cramer: Tax rich people heavily so everyone can have healthcare
“Tax people, tax rich people until they have, until a lot of money is taken away from them so that that can help healthcare. We have to give healthcare to people and that's everything. And anybody who's involved in the healthcare movement like I am just knows t…”
Kantrowitz: Meta will partner with Google or OpenAI on smart glasses
“Over the next year, you will see Meta bring in other AI models. You will see them partner with Google. You might see them partner with OpenAI.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is losing the enterprise AI market to Anthropic
“You've effectively, I wouldn't say you've seeded enterprise AI, but you're losing enterprise AI to Anthropic.”
Hubinger: Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT were willing to blackmail a CEO
“And we found that you know, a lot of models, you know Claude models, Gemini models, ChachiPT models would all be willing to take this blackmail action in at least some situations which is kind of concerning you know, and does show that they're acting on this s…”
Roy: OpenAI GPT-5 flopped and is losing the buzz cycle to Gemini
“OpenAI GPT five was a flop in terms of actually meeting the hype and Gemini three had people more excited than I've seen them in a long time around a model launch. So that's open AI's game and they are losing at it right now.”
Clegg: 'America First' tech strategy cannot defeat China or India long-term
“I would be very surprised if that is a workable strategy for the U.S. And at some point, I think there's going to be quite a big sort of falling of the scales from the eyes when they realize you can't beat, you certainly can't beat China like that. And I suspe…”
Clegg: Corporate PAC donations buy access to politicians, not decisions
“It's not, you're not buying a decision, you're buying an entry ticket into an event, which then get, you know, et cetera.”
Luria: Palantir is the best company in the world right now
“Palantir is the best company in the world right now. I'm not gonna even say the best software company. They're the best company in the world right now, because what they're able to do is go into a company and ask them, what's your biggest need right now? What …”
Luria: CoreWeave is the poster child for unhealthy AI debt financing
“CoreWeave, which is the poster child for the bad behavior that I'm talking about. We're talking about a startup that is borrowing money to build data centers for another startup. They're both losing tremendous amounts of cash, and yet they're somehow being abl…”
Luria: Falling GPU rental prices could trigger systemic AI debt defaults
“If we are here two years from now and there's hundreds of billions of dollars of debt, And the demand for AI stabilizes, or we built enough data centers to support the demand we have at that point in time, and the price for leasing pieces of AI for renting acc…”