The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,235 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 147 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Vogt: Human-driven ridesharing will be remembered as a flawed social experiment
“I think we will look back at, you know, right now is kind of like a flawed social experiment, you know, gone wrong with human driven ride share.”
Teller: Extreme AI outcomes will not happen in our lifetime
“Do I believe that anything particularly extreme in our lifetime is going to happen? I don't. I'm sorry, but I've been working on robots trying to open doorknobs for like the last 30 years, and it's been a slog.”
LeCun: Autonomous AI systems will inevitably develop emotions
“So if you have autonomous AI systems that work by optimizing objectives and they have the ability to predict they are going to have emotions. It's inseparable from autonomous intelligence.”
Enjeti predicts Trump will win 2024 presidential election if not indicted
“Yes to run, win. If he doesn't get indicted, I think he'll probably win.”
Haidt: Democrats are likely to get wiped out electorally
“But the Democrats aren't, are likely to get wiped out because Most people really hate what the cultural left is doing in their schools, their companies and their country.”
Kantrowitz: Human-level AI will not cause mass unemployment
“Even if we get AI at human level capabilities, we're not going to see mass unemployment.”
Prince: Automated Web Traffic Will Be 1,000x Human Traffic Within Five Years
“And if we just assume the current trends, what's, what's blows my mind is that if you just fast forward five years from now we estimate now that automated traffic online will be a thousand times what human traffic is.”
Prince: The tech ecosystem will move away from the app store model
“I do think that we're going to move more and more away from kind of an app store model. Because that's not going to be the interface where we reconnect with it.”
Prince: AI micropayments must scale beyond 100 million transactions per second
“We think that somewhere between one and 10% of those will day one be monetizable through agents with a with a micropayments transaction, which means that if you're going to build something like this, you've got to build a payments infrastructure that can day o…”
Prince: 2026 Will Be the Year Media Creators Get Paid by AI
“I really think that 2026 is going to be the year that in the media space, in the content space, that you're going to see a real shift and then content creators are going to get paid.”
Prince: AI Purchasing Agents Will Systematically Favor Incumbent Mega-Corporations
“The agents have infinite time to research every possible detail. And so they're going to look for where the richest sources of information that are online, which are going to be for the established big companies that are out there.”
Prince: Ad-free AI agents will widen the global wealth divide
“And then by the way, we get to worry about the next problem, which is that AI is this massive divider between, you know, the rich and the poor. And if we're not in an ad based business model in anymore, which I think is likely if you're spending thousands of d…”
Kantrowitz: If AI fails, massive spending will trigger a financial crisis
“And I, I'm, I've really struggled, like the idea of this soft landing, I struggled to see it. Like if AI doesn't work, there's been so much money tied up into this system that there's going to be some form of crisis.”
Bostrom: Weak aligned superintelligence could help align stronger superintelligence
“If you get a kind of weak super intelligence that is For the most part aligned, we might then be able to use that to make a more powerful form of super intelligence that is more reliably aligned.”
Bostrom: AI Will Reach Domain Superintelligence Before Achieving Across-The-Board AGI
“At the point where it is as good as an average human in everything, it might already be super intelligent in some key relevant domains for AI research.”
Kedrosky: Investors will pressure AI labs to slash massive pre-training spend
“Once investors look under the hood and see more and more of this, they'll be questioning, why are we spending so much on pre-training? Why are you doing billion dollar training runs anymore? If most of the gains and models are coming from post training and RLH…”
Kedrosky: China Will Overbuild AI Data Centers Like Past Real Estate Booms
“I expect you'll see the same phenomenon, albeit with a little less social consequences once all of this turns out to be, it'll be much like what happened with their overbuilding in apartment buildings and residential and industrial space over the last decade.”
Sharp: AI model providers will launch competing telemetry products within 18 months
“I have a near 100% belief that the, that these companies will eventually want to compete with my business. And so, you know, I need them. I need their models. I need the intelligence that they're selling, but I'm, I have some very real concerns that, you know,…”
Sharp: Cybersecurity faces a severe 12-month crisis before AI defense rebounds
“We're gonna have a really bad year. In terms of security, ah, and hacking in general, and people, ah, you know, being exploited. It's gonna be a bad year. But we only really have to go through it once. As the cost of this intelligence comes down, we will event…”
Sharp: AI will commoditize software features across all vendors
“Building software is so productive, especially copying software. So if I, like, if you have a feature, I can implement a version of that feature. Super easy. You point the models at it, and they make you something that looks like that, feels like that, does th…”
Cahn: Humans will do only 1% of cognitive work in 50 years
“Today humans do 99% of cognitive work in
50 years, humans are going to do maybe one percent of cognitive work, right?”
Beck: Next-gen data centers will use no more water than a car wash
“The way we share it with politicians in our areas, for instance, to say, well, the new data center are not going to use more water than a car wash.”
Beck: AI Growth Will Halt Without Water Recycling and Renewables
“There will be no AI if we can't reuse the water, there will be no power if we can't use more renewables as well going forward, and there will be no data center if we don't have people in community in democratic countries like the United States that are saying,…”
Shao: MiniMax AI Projected to Reach $1.2 Billion ARR by Year-End
“I think, you know, if you look at, I think Moon Minimax AI I think AI's run rate AR is already something like one billion now, and then Minimax projected to be one billion or to 1.2 billion by the end of the year.”
Kantrowitz: Selling Raw AI Intelligence Alone Won't Build Trillion-Dollar Companies
“I think that if there was a belief that you could build a trillion dollar company just by selling intelligence from the API alone not gonna happen most likely.
but what could happen is you, if you're the developer of the intelligence, you can build products w…”
Shao: Mass-Market Humanoid Robot Deployment Is 10 Years Away, Not Five
“People love to hype about it. They're saying, look, human robots are going to be deployed in the next three to five years in the mass market. He gave me a rough number of 10 years again, and I believe him, because I've seen a lot of these robots. They frankly …”
Antani: Training data corruption will pose massive risk to enterprise AI adoption
“And so the integrity of these models and whether they can be triggered because of training data corruption, that's intentional or inadvertent is going to be a really interesting area of discovery over the next couple of years. And it's going to be a massive am…”
Stamos: Autonomous AI Hacking Will Reach Every Adversary Facing US Companies
“This level of capability will be in the hand of every adversary every American company faces.”
Stamos: International Treaties to Halt AI Development Will Not Happen
“You've got people talking about international treaties or whatever. I don't think any of that's going to happen. I don't know what my position is on that, but I just don't think it's going to happen. I just, I think there's no way this is just math and Silicon…”
Stamos: Cybersecurity Faces Years of Total Chaos From Autonomous AI Attackers
“I think we're gonna go through a couple of years of craziness. Like, we have 20, we're all living using twenty-something years of really important software that was written mostly in non-type-safe, non-memory-safe languages. We're using, you know, for the soft…”
Roy: Kimi K3 launch will destroy the frontier model moat narrative
“I think this is actually going to be a moment where even more so the idea that Frontier models are a massive moat really goes away.”
Kantrowitz: AI frontier intelligence will commoditize into a price war
“If you have five companies that have this level of intelligence, it's a price war. It commoditizes. So I think we should assume, and we've talked about this on the show, that intelligence is gonna commoditize.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI alienating tech allies will eventually cause severe consequences
“OpenAI's loss of these friends over time is going to add up to something really bad. Who knows what that exactly is, but there's gonna come a time where OpenAI's gonna need Satya, or it will need John Ternus, or it will need Elon. And they won't be there for t…”
Schmidhuber: Robots will soon learn to operate all existing physical machines
“And I think the culmination point of that, which I've been talking about again for decades, is at some point in the not so distant future, we will have a robot that doesn't have to be super smart, but just smart enough to learn to operate all the already exist…”
Schmidhuber: AI Will Soon Run Locally Without Internet or Cloud
“Soon AI will not be in the cloud, you know. No, it will be local, on your local computer, a small little computer, it will be as powerful as what's now in the cloud, but you won't have to connect it to the internet”
Gardizy: Around 50% of AI data center projects will miss completion deadlines
“But on on projects that are actually getting built, I do think, you know, 50% not really getting done on time is is, you know, what I would expect.”
Gardizy: OpenAI will not deploy 10 gigawatts of data centers within two years
“Like, even if you think of OpenAI, for example, announcing a 10 gigawatt project, you know, we're not going to see 10 gigawatts in the next couple of years, or they're going to sort of spread out that bet.”
Bosworth: Consumers will soon treat AI models like invisible database infrastructure
“The model itself isn't the value. And I think we're going to get to a world very soon where consumers, they don't care. They don't want to specify the model they're using. They don't want to, they don't care if it's 4.7 or 4.8. Like you don't care what Oracle,…”
Bosworth: Future smart glasses will generate custom apps on the fly
“In the future, there's no reason that couldn't just be you wearing the glasses in real time, telling the glasses what app you want right now, and having it on the fly build that app for you.”
Bosworth: The future of computing is agent-brokered services, not standalone apps
“I don't think the appy thing is the way the future's gonna look. I think the future's gonna be valuable services. That are provided to you, and you getting access to those services the way that you want when you need it, and paying money to the people who prov…”
Siegler: Frontier AI models face diminishing returns despite massive costs
“Everyone's starting to recognize that there might be a world in which like, you don't want to have the frontier models because you're in charge of the cost of that. And the returns are going to be more and more diminishing over time now.”
Brockman: AI Compute Demand Will Outstrip Supply, Selling Out Every Provider
“I do think there's a bit of an attractor state where just like from a business model perspective, every provider sells out all their compute. Right. I think that is just like the world that we're heading towards, where there just is not going to be enough comp…”
Brockman: Current frontier AI intelligence will become mundane and cheaper within a year
“I think frontier intelligence will always be something that is going to be, you know, it's always going to be the priciest thing. But I think that a year from now, that level of intelligence is going to feel pretty mundane and like, you know, going to be much …”
Kantrowitz: Gating US Frontier AI Will Drive Enterprise Shift to Open Source
“If companies or countries cannot rely on the, or their ability to access frontier AI from US foundational model companies, they will rush toward open source. They will rush towards other solutions. They may, you know, not, they may be slower to go to these mor…”
Roy: AI Lab IPO Narratives Will Suffer as Cheaper Models Suffice
“And I do firmly believe overall utilization of models and agentic AI is going to be just, you know, like exponential, but the core IPO story, I think, takes a huge hit from this. So I think, like, the advantage of having something far superior for a short amou…”