The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,118 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 167 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ranjan Roy: OpenAI Will Crack LLM Advertising Ahead of Google
“I think OpenAI figures out LLM-based advertising ahead of Google.”
Mensch: A single AGI system solving all problems will never exist
“There's no such thing as like one system that is going to be solving all of the problems of the world. And so at the end of the day, or you just don't believe in that context at all. It's never going to exist. I mean, there's, you have a wealth of problems, ju…”
Albergati: Traditional web search is going to be gone
“I think traditional search is, like, is going to be just Gone.”
Kantrowitz: Meta will partner with Google or OpenAI on smart glasses
“Over the next year, you will see Meta bring in other AI models. You will see them partner with Google. You might see them partner with OpenAI.”
Hubinger: Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT were willing to blackmail a CEO
“And we found that you know, a lot of models, you know Claude models, Gemini models, ChachiPT models would all be willing to take this blackmail action in at least some situations which is kind of concerning you know, and does show that they're acting on this s…”
Clegg: 'America First' tech strategy cannot defeat China or India long-term
“I would be very surprised if that is a workable strategy for the U.S. And at some point, I think there's going to be quite a big sort of falling of the scales from the eyes when they realize you can't beat, you certainly can't beat China like that. And I suspe…”
Luria: Falling GPU rental prices could trigger systemic AI debt defaults
“If we are here two years from now and there's hundreds of billions of dollars of debt, And the demand for AI stabilizes, or we built enough data centers to support the demand we have at that point in time, and the price for leasing pieces of AI for renting acc…”
Luria: Three-year GPU depreciation would drastically cut Oracle and CoreWeave profits
“If you told Amazon and Microsoft, and certainly if you told companies like Oracle and CoreWeave, no, no, no, no. These chips will only generate meaningful revenue for three years. Their profitability would decline very dramatically. So again, from Microsoft, A…”
Luria: Three-year-old AI chips will not generate sufficient revenue to run
“And that's where we think in a three year timeframe, three year old chips will just not be able to do enough computations to be worth keeping them on. So either we replace them or we use them for much less important things. That will generate much less revenue…”
Luria: OpenAI won't make it if it builds datacenters and chips
“If they go down the current path, over committing, Deciding that they have to build their own data centers, they need their own hardware, they need their own chips, they won't make it.”
Luria: OpenAI is a negative gross margin business
“Open AI is a negative gross margin business. They claim they're not, but they are right. Which is to say it costs them more to answer your chat GPT question than they make revenue from you.”
Luria: Meta used a Blue Owl SPV to finance data centers off-balance-sheet
“The other thing that happened with Meta that was interesting is that when they Went out to borrow. They didn't borrow the capital. They created a special purpose vehicle, right? They went out with Blue Owl and they said, you know, we'll put a couple of billion…”
Suleyman: AI Training Is Not Data-Constrained Due To Synthetic Data
“We are not data constrained right now, we're generating vast amounts of high quality synthetic data, which is proving to be useful.”
Roy: OpenAI will certainly need a federal backstop for its spending commitments
“They almost will certainly need this government backstop to actually make this work.”
Kantrowitz: Humans will violently attack and destroy humanoid robots
“Well, I think we will definitely have a war among people and humanoid robots. It's without a doubt. Even if the humanoid robots don't assemble into the army, people will knock these things out and they're already burning Waymos. People don't like robots. They …”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI has $1.4T in financial obligations and 30GW compute commitments
“OpenAI has 1.4 trillion worth of financial obligation. And it's made commitments to use 30 gigawatts of data center capacity. But OpenAI's revenue is going to be thirteen billion this year, and we already have eight hundred million people using ChatGPT.”
Pangram Labs Pitched Medium Using Ongoing Wired Investigation Data
“There was something just suspect about the service provider that they use where it's like they, that at the same time, this article is coming out, that service provider is using the article to try to get me to hire them.”
AI Models Will Lack Reliable Information Beyond 2025 Without Creator Compensation
“The information they're pulling in, it is literally going to stop showing up on the internet. And it's like chat TPT will give you good advice for a 20, 25 and earlier, but nothing beyond that.”
Medium Loses 100 Google Clicks for Every One Click From Google Gemini
“I would estimate that we lose about a hundred clicks from traditional Google search for every one click we get back from a Gemini summary.”
Medium's Google Search Click-Through Rate Dropped by Half After Gemini's Launch
“The click-through rate when Gemini launched dropped nearly in half.”
Summers: Tech Industry's Unmet Demand Means AI Will Create Net Jobs
“As to whether it's going to create jobs or kill jobs, absolutely going to create jobs. There's so much unmet demand in our industry.”
Kantrowitz: Insiders report Evan Spiegel believes he is Steve Jobs
“I've heard from multiple people around him that he thinks he's Steve Jobs.”
Enterprises will eventually buy all software and AI from a single provider
“So that goes along with our thesis of convergence of software, that software will converge ultimately given a long enough period of time. All of your software will be provided by one software provider. I believe one AI provider also.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI deal includes warrants for 10% of AMD at one cent per share
“Part of this, OpenAI will receive warrants for up to a hundred sixty million AMD shares worth roughly 10% of the chip company at one cent per share awarded in phases if OpenAI hits certain milestones for deployment.”
Highly leveraged AI infrastructure companies face severe financial fallout without monetization
“And I think not every company probably has that. Level of game plan. And I don't think that maybe not every company is probably doing the same level of thoughtfulness of that. And, you know, at some point, you know, different companies will probably be hit by …”
Levie: Enterprise AI ROI Is So High Employees Hide It From Boards
“We've talked to customers where where they have had, had colleagues that, that can't actually they can't present the actual ROI savings to their board. The actual kind of expected ROI savings to the board because the board won't believe how, how they won't bel…”
Ranjan Roy compares the OpenAI-Oracle deal to the dot-com fiber buildout
“I think for the market to have reacted that positively, it just, I don't know, it feels like in, you know, the internet bubble, there was so much that happened around fiber build fiber capacity build out that seems to start to echo this, that it this I don't k…”
Fox claims overall Google Search referral traffic to the web remains stable
“If you look holistically ah, traffic to the web from search has been stable over time. There's lots of reports of large decreases. There may, you know, at any given point in time, there are sites that do well. There are sites that, that, that struggle. But if …”
Masad: Model makers undercutting on price will destroy the ecosystem
“If they're gonna compete by undercutting everyone on price, they're gonna destroy the ecosystem.”
The First AGI Lab Will Not Trigger a Runaway Intelligence Explosion
“Whomever reaches AGI first, they're not going to go into intelligence explosion and just like suddenly, you know, super intelligence gets born. People, you know, other labs will catch up really quickly. And then, you know, there's going to be a lot of models. …”
Lightcap: OpenAI scaling laws show no diminishing returns in training
“Our scaling laws still hold. Empirically, there's no reason to believe that there's any kind of diminishing return on pre-training and on post-training.”
Amodei: AI progress remains exponential with no diminishing returns
“So we see the progress as being very fast, and the exponential is continuing, and we don't see any diminishing returns.”
Amodei: Anthropic hit $4.5B revenue, history's fastest-growing software company
“Anthropic is actually the fastest growing software company in history at the scale that it's at. So we grew from zero to a hundred million in 2023, a hundred million to a billion in 2024, and this year we've grown from one billion to, I think I said this befor…”
Amodei: Accusations That Anthropic Seeks an AI Monopoly Are 'Bad Faith'
“I've said nothing that, that any, that anywhere near resembles the idea that this company should be the only one to build the technology. I don't know how anyone could ever derive that from anything that I've said. It's just, yeah, yeah, it's just a, it's just…”
VCs rarely inspect accounts or codebases when investing in AI startups
“I had someone tell me, a source tell me, that there are, it's very rare that venture capitalists see the books, the actual accounts, and they almost never see the code base.”
OpenAI is an asset-light company relying heavily on shared Microsoft IP
“OpenAI is an asset-light business with research and IP that's owned by another company. They don't have much to trade other than their name.”
OpenAI will not achieve $100 billion in annual revenue, Zitron predicts
“Even if OpenAI was profitable, okay, they're the biggest AI company, cool. Are they going to a hundred billion a year? Bullshit. No.”
There is no scientific evidence that AGI is computationally possible
“AGI, we do not have evidence it's possible. We don't understand how humans think. How the fuck are we meant to create it in a computer?”
Levie: Current AI scaling laws will achieve superintelligence
“And I think what you're seeing with scaling is we will be able to certainly accomplish our collective definition of super intelligence. With the current, ah, the current path we're on with scaling laws.”
Petersen: U.S. trade tariffs will decrease American manufacturing
“What we've seen over the last few weeks is it's gonna decrease American manufacturing.”
Smith: Government-run grocery stores will drain public funds and crush bodegas
“So if you make government run grocery stores, it'll do two things. Number one It will outcompete all the little indie grocery stores and bodegas, thus like a meager source of capital and wealth accumulation for like poor people in poor neighborhoods... And the…”
Kantrowitz: Zuckerberg Offered $32B for Safe Superintelligence and Was Rejected
“Zuckerberg tried to spend thirty two billion on Ilya Suskever's AI start, startup, safe super intelligence. Suskever ultimately turned Meta down.”
Patel: Individuals will eventually train superintelligences in basements
“The cost of training, the systems is declining so fast that Literally you will be able to train a super intelligence in a basement at some point in the future.”
Roy: A single dominant AI model will not eliminate 20-50% of jobs
“I believe that the one model to rule them all, one giant model is going to wipe out 20% or 50% of white collar jobs. Like, I just don't see that happening.”
Kantrowitz: Grammarly will go extinct as LLMs replace grammar tools
“And here's my hot take on Grammarly. I think they're going to go extinct. I think I wouldn't call them a rapper because they were around before large language models, but all this logic that they painstakingly built into their program and all the AI developmen…”
LeCun: Open-source AI researchers will progress faster than closed competitors
“The people who share their research are going to move faster than the ones that don't.”
Klarna CEO: AI agent handles 1.3M monthly errands, replacing 800 workers
“Our agent that we launched about a year ago is still dealing with, I think it is about 1.3 million errands per month, which is the equivalent of previously was done By about 800 people on a monthly basis. And so that is obviously, and it's actually gone up a l…”