The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 167 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 167 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Will Go Public as a Trillion-Dollar Company
“And he did, you know, he did take a nonprofit and turn it into, you know, it's going to be a trillion dollar IPO company.”
Kantrowitz: Apple Is on Schedule to Release a Foldable Phone in 2026
“Apple is on schedule to release one this upcoming year, so why not wait?”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic Will File S-1 or Set IPO Timeline in 2026
“My prediction is, while opening a dozen IPO, Anthropic at least sets a timeline. If not, you know, files in S-One next year.”
Cramer: Meta and YouTube will capture 50% to 70% of ad market
“In the end, Mark is going to have, along with YouTube, 50%, if not 70% of the advertising market. And that's a very big market.”
Altman: ChatGPT's Market Lead Will Increase Over Time
“ChatGPT is still by far the dominant chatbot in the market, and I expect that lead to increase, not decrease over time.”
Siegler: Apple services will overtake the iPhone within a decade
“I think at some point in the next decade, services will pass the iPhone as the largest business for Apple.”
Groq CFO: AI workloads will consume 25% of US energy by 2028
“I think I saw a statistic that says by twenty-twenty-eight in the United States, a quarter of all of the energy produced will be used to run AI workloads, right, which is an amazing statistic.”
Suleyman: AI task horizons will soon reach hundreds of thousands of steps
“And the other one is the sort of length of a task horizon that can be predicted. So at the moment it's like a few steps, but soon it will be tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of steps accurately. And that will mean that a model can like use APIs or quer…”
Suleyman: AI data and training pipelines will become fully closed-loop within years
“So, it doesn't seem very far-fetched to say that in a few years time, at significant scale, That will get closed loop. And, you know, it'll be interesting to see you know, what happens and whether the quality bar can be maintained and whether performance does …”
Siegler: OpenAI's IPO will be the largest in history
“I mean, given their fundraisers are bigger than any IPOs ever. So this has to be, you know an all time record IPO in the making.”
Practical quantum computing applications will emerge within five years, Matias predicts
“And I'm quite optimistic that we are going to see these real life applications in the framework of about five years.”
Kantrowitz: Amazon will achieve 75% automation across fulfillment centers
“I think Amazon's going to accomplish this goal. I think they're going to get to that 75% automation, and I think that is going to be, you know, I don't know, I think it's going to be a clear problem.”
Guthrie: AI infrastructure will remain supply-constrained for the next two years
“With AI, we're still more supply constrained than we are demand constrained. And I think I, you know, I expect that to continue over the next couple of years as the technology continues to evolve and as people start to integrate AI into more and more workflows…”
The first 100 error-corrected qubits on fast architectures will arrive by 2028
“I think you'll see in 20, 27, 20, 28, the first hundred air created qubits on fast machines.”
Quantum computers will have enough qubits to break standard encryption around 2040
“In around 2040, we think there'll be enough qubits to start to break encryption, and secrets last longer than that.”
Prince: Global regulators will force Google to split its web crawler
“I am also a hundred percent certain that regulators are paying a ton of attention to this. And that around the world, you will see them force Google to split their crawler out into announcing exactly what it is doing.”
Albergotti: OpenAI's Stargate will focus on inference across multiple sites
“My guess is like, yeah, it will be built, but like, is it gonna be some huge thing that then they like train and train AGI on? I think it's probably gonna be like multiple sites and that are connected. And a lot of it's gonna be inference rather than training.”
Patel: 4x annual compute scaling cannot continue beyond 2028
“If you look at things like how much energy is there in the country, how much how many chips can TSMC produce and what fraction of them are already being used by AI. Even if you look at like raw GDP, like how much money does the world have? How much wealth does…”
Scaramucci: US will probably hold Bitcoin on its fiscal balance sheet
“We'll probably end up having Bitcoin on the corporate, on the fiscal balance sheet of the United States.”
Scaramucci: Bitcoin will reach $1 million per coin
“I think it becomes an asset class.
I think it's a million dollars a coin, and I have a 20,000 dollar cost basis in it, and I'm going to hold it.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is likely to IPO within next couple years
“OpenAI is trying to move to this new structure.
In fact, it's decided on a new structure, and that means it's likely to IPO sometime in the next couple years, you would think, given the amount of money they raised.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Jony Ive's hardware will not launch next year
“I'm going to say, I'm calling, I think they want it to happen next year.
I'm calling that it's not going to happen next year.”
Parker: Semiconductors will grow 5% to 8% above GDP over 10 years
“Semis grew about two percent above GDP for 30 years. I think they're gonna grow something like five to seven to eight percent above GDP, you know, if you look at the last two years, say, through the next eight.”
Suleyman: Microsoft's OpenAI partnership will last through 2030 and beyond
“Whilst we have a incredibly deep partnership with them, which is going to last way through 20, 30 and beyond,”
Tytunovich: The same privacy regulations for humans will apply to AI agents
“In my opinion, it needs to be exactly the same. It's a tool operating on your behalf. It's not a different it's got your permissions. It's an automation tool. So yeah, I think, or my opinion is, and I think it's also going to be the case of what's Going to hap…”
Eggemeier: 80% of customer interactions will be automated within 3-5 years
“We think about 80% will be automated within the next three to five years, leaving 20% of those interactions still to go to a human being.”
Eggemeier: Human support headcount will remain flat despite 80% AI automation
“And so what we think is going to happen to our interactions are going to go massively up. We're going to help companies automate 80% of them, and you're going to have about the same amount of human beings that you had before in the human agent role because of …”
Roy: OpenAI cannot achieve a $300B valuation if it open-sources models
“You're not gonna be a three hundred billion dollar company when you're open source like that.”
Demis Hassabis predicts a virtual cell AI model will take five years
“I think that would be like maybe five years from now. Yeah. So I have a kind of five year project and a lot of the alpha fold, the old alpha fold team are working on that.”
Ives: Meta and Google will eventually integrate into Apple Intelligence
“Apple basically said, we now will be the castle for AI. And if you want access to it, you got to come through Apple intelligence, clearly open AI. I eventually think Meta Google are going to have to make the same move.”
Link: Amazon will deliver ~20% 5-year CAGR, beating Meta and Google
“And I think you're going to see a CAGR of about 20% for the next five years at this company versus Meta at 13% and versus Google at 12.8%.”
Ives: Google antitrust fight will end in tweaks, not breakups
“This is going to be fought out in court for many years, and I think it will be settlements and business model tweaks, not massive changes.”
Roy: Apple's Services revenue will eventually surpass its iPhone revenue
“I think it's gonna happen. I mean, after the announcement of the 16, I think I think it's probably gonna be sooner rather than later”
Diamandis: Longevity Escape Velocity Will Be Reached in About 20 Years
“Ray Kurzweil's prediction is 2030, which is insanely close, right? Why? It's because AI is going to help us understand why we age, how to slow it, how to stop it, how to reverse it. George Church puts it at some 15 years out. David Sinclair is in that same are…”
Diamandis: Global population will peak around 9 to 9.5 billion before dropping rapidly
“And if you've got a massive underpopulation, right, we peak at nine, nine and a half billion and have a very rapid drop off.”
Global software developers will reach one billion by 2030
“And I think AI is going to accelerate that massively. And, you know, one billion developers by 2030 or so is a little bit under 10% of the population, depending on where the world's population is going. That's actually a low number if you think about it, becau…”
Lessig: 'Right to Warn' only allows public disclosure if reporting channels fail
“The right to warn we were talking about actually talked about creating an incentive so that no confidential information would be released to the public. If they had this structure, you know, imagine a portal again, where you can connect with the company and wi…”
Training next-generation frontier AI models will soon require gigawatts of power
“And then how much, basically, would it cost in terms of energy to train a GPT four level model, a 4.5 level model, five, whatever. And you get into the gigawatts pretty soon.”
Gelsinger: Global chip production will reach 50/50 East-West balance by 2030
“By the end of the decade, so, you know, seven, eight years, I think we can get close to fifty-fifty by the end of the decade, and if we accomplish that, right, over a seven or eight year period, I think the world is going to sleep much better at night”
Luckey: Photorealistic VR will rely on Micro-LEDs and advanced optics
“People, people often seem to think that there's got to be this big breakthrough, like that we're going to be scanning lasers. I'm like, no, I think actually things are going to look pretty similar. You're going to have micro LED displays that are very high bri…”
Luckey: US military will not remove humans from AI kill decisions
“We have a strong, actually, system for accountability, where it's always a person, as they say, on the loop. A person is always making that decision to kill. I don't think that we're going to get away from that anytime soon.”
Friedberg: 90% to 95% chance scalable fusion exists within two decades
“I would say there's probably a 90 plus percent chance or 95% chance that we will have scalable fusion energy in the next decade or two”
Marcus: Machines will convincingly conduct podcast interviews within 30 years
“And some point I'm going to say, 30 years from now. We'll be able to make machines that do podcast interviews and I won't really know. I don't really know if you're a person fake or, you know, machine faking me out or whatever at some point.”
Siegler: Apple will undoubtedly face class action lawsuits over foldable iPhones
“There will be, of course, people who bend it the other way to prove that it could bend, you know, it's not invincible and there'll be all sorts of fun class action lawsuits undoubtedly that, that arise as these new form factors come into play.”
Siegler: Google May Skip Gemini 3.5 Pro to Jump Directly to Gemini 4
“It sort of feels like they're going to go try to jump right to four now. And if they do that, four had better be really good. Otherwise they're going to have a real narrative problem.”