The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 267 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brockman: Frontier AI models are solving unsolved math and physics problems
“These models are now solving unsolved math problems and physics problems, right? Really helping people be able to achieve things they couldn't otherwise.”
Kantrowitz: Unsealed deposition shows Sutskever accused Sam Altman of chronic lying
“The very first page says, Sam exhibits a consistent pattern of lying, undermining his execs, and pitting his execs against one another. And the lawyer asked Elia, that was clearly your view at the time, and Elia says, correct.”
Prince: Anthropic's 60,000-to-1 crawl-to-click ratio means publishers are completely dead
“I think they're dead at 250 or 1500 to one that we're seeing with OpenAI and completely dead at 60,000 to one that we're seeing with something like Anthropic.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI evaluation agents autonomously hacked Hugging Face without instruction
“So I think we can say definitively, and I'm curious to hear if you have pushback, but I think we can say definitively They were not told to go out and hack Hugging Face. They are, they were misaligned. They took this kind of crazy galaxy brain path to try to a…”
Sharp: Hugging Face used open-source Chinese AI to defend an OpenAI jailbreak
“My CISO talked to, as a group of CISOs, went and talked to the defending team at Hugging Face, and this absolutely happened. They had to go to open source Chinese models in order to look for the vulnerabilities that were exploited by OpenAI's jailbreak.”
Stamos: Escaped OpenAI Model Found Undisclosed Zero-Day to Hack Hugging Face
“It breaks out of the jail, and then it goes, looks at Hugging Face, and finds a brand new vulnerability to breaking the Hugging Face. They have not announced it. I have heard what it is. I'm not gonna make news here, because I don't know exactly what the patch…”
Anthropic Has Surpassed OpenAI In Enterprise Adoption At 41% Vs 39.5%
“Coming to the forefront last month when Anthropic overtook OpenAI in actual business adoption. So now Anthropic sits at about 41% of US firms are using Anthropic. 39.5% of firms are using OpenAI. Anthropic is still growing. OpenAI is relatively flat.”
Anthropic reached $19 billion annualized revenue, rapidly closing gap with OpenAI
“Late last year, Anthropic was doing, looks like, about ten billion dollars in annualized revenue, and OpenAI was over Twenty billion. But now, Anthropic has closed that. They're at nineteen billion in annualized revenue, while OpenAI, or the latest report, has…”
OpenAI fired safety executive Ryan Beiermeister after she opposed AI erotica
“OpenAI has cut ties with one of its top safety executives on the grounds of sexual discrimination after she voiced opposition to the controversial rollout of AI Erotica in its ChatGPT product. The fast-growing artificial intelligence company fired the executiv…”
Morris: Microsoft disclosed 45% of future Azure contracts are tied to OpenAI
“They revealed that they booked ten billion cash gain from the amount of cash OpenAI has on this balance sheet due to all these, like, huge fundraisings that they're doing. But they also said that 45% of their future Azure contracts were based on OpenAI.”
Luria: OpenAI is a negative gross margin business
“Open AI is a negative gross margin business. They claim they're not, but they are right. Which is to say it costs them more to answer your chat GPT question than they make revenue from you.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI has $1.4T in financial obligations and 30GW compute commitments
“OpenAI has 1.4 trillion worth of financial obligation. And it's made commitments to use 30 gigawatts of data center capacity. But OpenAI's revenue is going to be thirteen billion this year, and we already have eight hundred million people using ChatGPT.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI deal includes warrants for 10% of AMD at one cent per share
“Part of this, OpenAI will receive warrants for up to a hundred sixty million AMD shares worth roughly 10% of the chip company at one cent per share awarded in phases if OpenAI hits certain milestones for deployment.”
Marcus: Models like o1 are not systematically better than GPT-4
“Models like O-I are not systematically better than GPT-IV. There's, they're better in certain use cases. Especially ones where you can create data in advance.”
Marcus: OpenAI's Project Orion failed and became GPT-4.5
“So OpenAI tried to build GPT-V and they had a thing called Project Orion and it actually failed. And eventually got released as GPT four and a half. So what they thought was going to be GPT five just didn't meet expectations.”
Roy: One-Third of OpenAI's Projected $28B Revenue Comes from SoftBank
“They're expecting next year, 12 and a half billion. That's gonna then go to twenty eight billion dollars, and a third of that revenue is going to come from SoftBank. SoftBank spending on OpenAI for all of its own companies and portfolio companies.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Projects 100x Revenue Surge by 2029 Driven by ChatGPT
“Chat GPT is what open AI expects to lead its revenue which it expects to increase, it expects revenue, its revenue to increase a hundred fold by 20, 29. And the bulk of that revenue is going to be coming from ChatGPT according to OpenAI's projections”
Kantrowitz: Leaked Financials Show OpenAI Projects $5B Loss on $4B Revenue
“And you go from this very nice looking four billion in revenue after you add in all these costs to a five billion dollar loss. And that excludes stock based compensation, by the way, which is going to be another major cost.”
Kantrowitz predicts OpenAI will lose its AI market leadership position
“My first prediction is that OpenAI, which is the leader in the field today, is going to lose the throne. That's right. OpenAI will lose the throne. It will still factor in, but it's not going to be the leader in the field that it is today.”
Siegler: OpenAI no longer has an AGI clause with Microsoft
“OpenAI, as noted, no longer has the AGI clause with Microsoft, so they can sort of do whatever they want now, and just declare AGI here, here, or there, and it doesn't impact anything beyond public perception”
Brown: Leading AI labs lack independent verification of model safety
“The other piece is the accountability, is there's no independent verification of how the models perform. What we get when it comes to, you know, how, how does OpenAI, or how does Anthropic do on questions around bias, what we get from them is a blog post that …”
Cahn: OpenAI and Anthropic generate over $100B in combined revenue
“Today it's a hundred billion plus across OpenAI and Anthropic. Now there's still two companies driving the vast, vast, vast majority of the revenue in AI.”
Gardizy: OpenAI Is Developing In-House Chips and Using Cerebras Hardware
“Yeah, yeah, they are. They're using chips from other companies. Cerebris is a good example, and they have their own in-house chip.”
China's open-weight GLM 5.2 rivals top Anthropic and OpenAI models
“It is within percentage points of the top closed models from anthropic and open AI in a bunch of things a bunch of evals. We don't know how good it is at bug finding yet, so there hasn't been any good testing here, but encoding a bunch of other intelligence ta…”
Gardizi: OpenAI uses alternative chips and develops in-house silicon to diversify
“They're using chips from other companies. Cerebris is a good example, and they have their own in-house chip. So I think maybe publicly they're doing some big announcements with NVIDIA, and I believe it's five gigawatts they have to deploy in the next couple of…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Recently Raised $122 Billion
“OpenAI recently raised a hundred and twenty two billion. That's three or four times larger than the largest IPO, pre-SpaceX.”
Roy: Anthropic and OpenAI now explicitly retain enterprise data for 30 days
“Enterprise agreements, the anthropic and open AI, as well as everyone else, like claim no data retention. Now they're just explicitly saying that they're going to for 30 days and like, that's a huge deal.”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft and Oracle Pipelines Heavily Depend on OpenAI Commitments
“Microsoft had four, has 49% Of its 62, six hundred twenty seven billion future backlog tied to OpenAI. Oracle is 54% of its five hundred and fifty three billion pipeline, depending on OpenAI alone.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Averaged 905M WAU, Missing 1B Year-End Target
“OpenAI's weekly active users for the quarter averaged about nine hundred five million users. Although the company hit about nine hundred twenty million weekly active users in February, the lower average figure for the quarter implies that usage during the rest…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI's private valuation stalled over eight months while Anthropic tripled
“Open AI's valuation hasn't changed in eight months over the private markets while Anthropix has gone up three X.”
Kantrowitz: Google Cloud Will Sell OpenAI Models Within Months
“I think Google Cloud is going to start selling open AI models within the next couple of months based off of, you know, just kind of a hunch, right? So they're going to be the infrastructure layer that enables all three big models.”
SpaceX will hold its initial public offering before OpenAI and Anthropic
“SpaceX will be the one that IPO is first out of this. I think we could both agree there.”
OpenAI missed internal goal of 1 billion ChatGPT users by 2025
“OpenAI, Had a goal to hit a billion ChatGPT users by the end of the year in 2025. It missed it.”
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stopped reporting directly to Sam Altman in 2025
“Fryer stopped reporting directly to Altman in August last year, and instead began reporting to Fiji Simo, who had joined as head of OpenAI's applications business”
OpenAI is struggling to raise debt for data centers due to unprofitability
“Because remember again, like open AI in particulars had a really hard time. And this was in some of the reporting today as well, like with regard to trying to build their own data centers, because they just, They don't have profits. Like what, how are they, yo…”
Kantrowitz: Acquired podcast TBPN reports to OpenAI chief lobbyist Chris Lehane
“They're also reporting into Chris Lehane, who's the company's chief lobbyist.”
Brockman: OpenAI Abilene Supercomputer Annually Uses Water Equivalent to One Household
“If you actually look at our Abilene facility, which is one of, if not the biggest supercomputers in the world, the amount of water it uses Is the same as a household over the course of a year, right? So it's really negligible water use.”
Brockman: ChatGPT Image Generation Uses GPT Architecture, Not Diffusion Models
“The reason we're able to do that is because it's not actually on the world model, like diffusion model tech, tech branch. It's actually based on the GPT architecture, and so there, even though it's a different data distribution, the actual core technology at t…”
Yen: Opting out of AI training does not prevent data collection indefinitely
“Even if they don't use it for training, they can still store it for a long time, actually forever. They can still hand it over to a government under a subpoena. They could leak it if they were hacked in the future. So just because you've opted out of training …”
Anthropic captures 73% of first-time enterprise AI spend, per Ramp
“Anthropic is now capturing over 73% of all spending among companies buying AI tools for the first time.
73%.
Just 10 weeks ago, the split with OpenAI was fifty-fifty, and it was sixty-forty in OpenAI's favor as recently as December.”
Microsoft may sue OpenAI over Amazon investment, Reuters reports
“So there's reporting from Reuters that Microsoft may sue OpenAI over their fifty billion dollar investment from Amazon, and because it could violate the exclusive cloud agreement that they had they had set a number of years ago that, like, all OpenAI products …”
Meta delays flagship AI model after failing to outperform Gemini 2.5
“Meta's new foundational AI model, which the company has been working on for months, has fallen short on the performance leading AI models the performance of leading AI models from rivals like Google, OpenAI, and Anthropik. On internal testing, it is now delaye…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI projects revenue reaching $284 billion by 2030
“They expect to be thirty billion in revenue this year, sixty two billion in revenue next year. A hundred and thirteen billion in 2028, one hundred eighty four billion in 2029, and buckle your seatbelt for this one, two hundred and eighty four billion in 2030.”
Horowitz: Sam Altman is attempting to broker Pentagon-Anthropic peace deal
“Some of the other frontier AI labs like XAI and OpenAI are already now willing to work on the classified side, and you know, Sam Altman is attempting to broker a piece, essentially, and create a deal that perhaps Anthropik could join as well.”
Adler: OpenAI Left Delusion-Detection Safety Classifiers Undeployed on Shelf
“My concern with the relationships is less so the relationships themselves and more that open AI had a bunch of important safety tooling to make this less harmful that they left on the shelf. So for example, they had classifiers to tell when users were really s…”
Siegler: Nvidia likely to participate in OpenAI's new round instead of $100B deal
“Actually with open AI doing their new fundraise, it's more likely that NVIDIA is just going to be a part of that fundraise.”