The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 138 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Two Companies Account for Roughly 39% of Nvidia's Revenue
“One crazy thing that came out of Nvidia's earnings last week was, I think something like two companies make up 39% of its revenue.”
Dwarkesh: Hyperscaler ASICs will come online from all major providers
“And so that just sets up a huge incentive for all these hyperscalers to build their own ASICs, their own accelerators that replace the Nvidia ones. Which I think will come online over the next few years from all of them.”
Lebaredian: Majority of NVIDIA's engineers are software engineers
“The majority of our employees are engineers, and the majority of those engineers are software engineers.”
Hoffman: 6-12 Month Delays Are Normal for Nvidia and Chipmakers
“It's actually not atypical. For either NVIDIA or chip manufacturers to sometimes be, you know to have six to 12 month error bars in, in the stuff they're doing”
Hoffman: Nvidia Blackwell Delays Would Slow AI Development But Not Stop It
“If they can't get their year olds up and produce it, that will be a, you know, concerning thing for NVIDIA and will slow down some of, you know, kind of AI's development because the faster chips in a dense environment is actually, in fact, instrumental and hel…”
Garman: NVIDIA treats AWS very fairly in allocating GPU supplies
“They're very fair in dealing with us and we give long-term forecasts and they tell us what they can supply.”
Garman: Nvidia Blackwell delivers about 2.5x compute performance of H100
“I think we were expecting about two and a half times the compute performance out of the Blackwell chip that you get out of an H-one hundred”
Shapiro: NVIDIA operates with dynamic virtual teams rather than rigid org charts
“Kind of come second, and in fact, the notion of the group is kind of dynamic, and we really don't have much of an org chart in the company. Jensen says the mission is the boss, and so we have these virtual teams. There's a lot of cross-functional work that goe…”
Shapiro: NVIDIA is the only company offering a three-computer AV stack
“So NVIDIA is the only company that has these three computers, and it's really this whole life cycle of developing, testing, and deploying the software, and really it's a continuous flywheel.”
Shapiro: NVIDIA's in-car AI avatars will train exclusively on vehicle data
“So as we think about having some kind of an avatar in the car, that's your concierge, we're going to train it specifically on everything to do with that car brand, that car model. And the kinds of things that you would want to do in the car. So it's not necess…”
Batnick: Nvidia has earned a valuation premium above market multiple
“I don't know what the right answer is, but it probably shouldn't be trading at a market multiple, call it 20 times or so, so it certainly has earned a premium that it's trading at.”
Kantrowitz: Big cloud providers drive about 45% of Nvidia's data center revenue
“And like something like 45% of Nvidia's data center revenue is coming from the big cloud providers, like those five customers.”
Batnick: A 13% three-day drop is normal for high-growth stocks
“What happened over the last three days is abnormal in terms of the market cap losses, but for a company that's doubled and doubled again and doubled again or whatever the performance has been, for it to lose 13% in three days is completely normal. I mean, that…”
Batnick: Nvidia trades at 40x forward earnings compared to Cisco's dot-com 130x
“Cisco got as expensive as I think it was a 130 forward times earnings. Right now NVIDIA is trading somewhere between 40, let's call it 40 times forward earnings.”
Doshi: NVIDIA H100 is 1.9x faster but 2x costlier
“One of the problems with NVIDIA was that they released their H 100, but they didn't really reduce its cost. You know, it is, it's two is, you know, 1.9 X faster, but two X costlier.”
Catanzaro: Accelerated computing requires optimizing the full stack for key workloads
“Acceleration really is about specialization. It's about being able to focus and prioritize and say, this is the workload that matters most, and I'm going to optimize the entire stack for that workload.”
El Hallak: ServiceNow Is Making 20 Autonomous Agents Available Alongside Project Arc
“Kind of a super exciting part about our partnership with ServiceNow is they talk about 20 autonomous agents that they've, you know, they're making available. These are in addition to these, you know, to project arc.”
NVIDIA OpenShell AI sandboxes strictly enforce deny-by-default access permissions
“The default is no. When you spin up OpenShell, the default at runtime for an agent running in a sandbox is an, you are explicitly giving it access to very specific, you know, processes or actions that it wants to take.”
ServiceNow runs fine-tuned models on internal GPU clusters using NVIDIA software
“We have a range of models that we use for different use cases from the frontier models to fine tune models that we're running on NVIDIA software inside of our own GPU clusters inside of ServiceNow.”
El Hallak: NVIDIA OpenShell Governs Agent Permissions and Routing at Runtime
“And we have a, an open source secure runtime that's just between the infrastructure and the agent. And what it does is it defines what an agent can do at runtime. What it has access to, what it can read to, what it can read from, what it can write to what AP, …”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI gave all Nvidia employees access to GPT-5.5
“They also did something interesting, which is that they gave access to GPT, 5.5, to the entire company of NVIDIA.”
Kantrowitz: NVIDIA acqui-hired top talent from inference chipmaker Groq
“Remember, they acquired, ah, the, or they, the Aqua higher-zitioned the top talent from Grok, not Elon's Grok, but this Grok company that's meant for inference, and that was one of the big answers for them in in their GTC conference this year.”
IFS Explores Nvidia Jetson and Metropolis for AR Field Guidance
“We're exploring with the use of NVIDIA, Jetson technology and the Metropolis platform to give augmented reality to those technicians so that when the technician is performing a task, you know, with that edge-based chip and an LLM that can go onto that chip, st…”
Kantrowitz: NVIDIA Q1 revenue hit $44B, up 69% despite China restrictions
“The company's revenue reached forty-four billion for the first fiscal quarter, for its first fiscal quarter. A 69% increase That was curtailed, so limited to just a 69% increase that was curtailed by Washington's new limits on China chip sales.”
Roy: Trump will comment on NVIDIA-Anthropic chip smuggling feud within days
“I think I'm convinced Trump is going to address this one. I'm making the call right here in the next three to four days because it's just too perfect.”
Kantrowitz: Volatility wiped $1.57 trillion off Magnificent Seven stocks in early 2025
“An astonishing 1.57 trillion wiped off the magnificent seven since the start of 2025. The volatility in the tech sector has wiped that amount off of the magnificent seven's valuation. Nvidia saw the biggest decline in the group having lost five hundred and thi…”
Lebaredian: NVIDIA trains physical AI models with video and 3D simulation
“We're not just going to describe with words, how, what happens when you drop a piece of paper. We're going to give these models other senses. During the learning process. So they'll, they'll watch watch videos of paper dropping. We can also give it more, more …”
Lebaredian: Over 650 NVIDIA employees reached a 20-year tenure
“When he got to 20, there were more than 650 people that were at twenty-year. Now, earlier I had said, when I joined the company, there were about a thousand people. So this means that most of the people That were there when I started at NVIDIA were still there…”
Lebaredian: NVIDIA has worked towards Cosmos for about a decade
“We've been working towards Cosmos For probably about 10 years, we envisioned that eventually this new technology that had formed with deep learning, that that was going to be the critical technology necessary for us to create robot brains.”
Tech stocks plunged in pre-market trading after DeepSeek R1's release
“NVIDIA down 10%, Microsoft down four percent. Google down three percent meta down 2.6% SMP down two percent. So this is all based off of this deep seek reckoning or this deep seek realization.”
Garman: AWS to launch Blackwell-based EC2 P6 instances in early 2025
“We're going to announce that the P six, which is the Blackwell based instance that's coming early next year.”
Shapiro: NVIDIA uses LLMs to turn accident reports into AV simulations
“The other thing that we can do is we can take accident reports and now using these large language models, we can input these accident reports and be able to create scenarios from a text input explaining what happened or if there's a map or something like that.”
Shapiro: NVIDIA can train regional LLMs on localized traffic laws
“The technology is there so that we can train it on what are the laws of a particular region? I mean, the signs, the light signals, the lane markings in different regions of the country or around the world. Differ quite a bit, and so basically creating these la…”
Shapiro: Mercedes-Benz and BMW use NVIDIA digital twins to simulate factories before construction
“Companies like Mercedes-Benz, like BMW are working with our teams
to develop this factory as a digital twin first, so it's a full simulation of the entire factory, all the robots, the workers, the assembly lines, the trucks pulling up, the, you know, logistic…”
Mercedes, Jaguar Land Rover, and Volvo are integrating NVIDIA driving tech
“We're bringing it into vehicles like Mercedes, like Jaguar, Land Rover vehicles, like Volvos, and a number of other brands all over the world are integrating NVIDIA technology to enable much safer driving on the streets before we get to a fully autonomous.”
Kantrowitz: Nvidia has beaten internal revenue guidance midpoints by 13% average
“Since NVIDIA's sales began exploding in the fiscal quarter that ended in April, Revenue has exceeded the midpoint of the company's own forecast by an average of 13%.”
Kantrowitz: Erasing Nvidia's 2024 gains would drop S&P 500 by 4.5%
“If NVIDIA were to lose the gains it has made this year overnight, the S&P
500 would have to come down approximately 4.5%.”
Batnick: Only 14 S&P 500 companies exceed Nvidia's $430B three-day loss
“There's 14, there's 14 companies in the S&P 500 that are bigger than the market cap that was raised in three days. That's it. Only 14 companies are more than four to thirty billion dollars. That's as big as MasterCard and it did it in three days.”
Batnick: Nvidia is only the 12th company to lead the S&P 500
“It's only the 12th or 13th company over the last hundred years to wear the crown of the number one company in the S and P 500. It's there's not been a lot of turnover at top. There's only 12 names and NVIDIA is one of them.”
Clark: Anthropic builds on Amazon Trainium, Google TPU, and Nvidia chips
“I can't get too much into the specifics, but I can just say we've sort of publicly stated that we're Working on both Tranium chips and also TPU chips. We also work on NVIDIA chips as well.”
Kantrowitz: Meta will possess 350,000 NVIDIA H100 GPUs by end of 2024
“Facebook has 350,000 of them by the end of the year.”
Ramaswamy: Nvidia's Graphics Architecture Perfectly Positioned It for AI Dominance
“The same things that made them really good for doing graphics processing, which is a lot of You know, fairly simple operations done at massive scale. You know, graphics processing is like drawing a lot of triangles on your screen. But the same thing and matrix…”