The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 138 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kantrowitz: Jensen Huang privately cited OpenAI's lack of discipline in deal pullback
“In recent months, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Wang has privately emphasized to industry associates that the original one hundred billion dollar agreement was non-binding And not finalized. He also said, he also privately criticized what he described as a lack of discipl…”
SpaceX leases entire 300MW Colossus One compute capacity to Anthropic
“Anthropic will use all the computing capacity from SpaceX's Colossus One data center in a new agreement with Elon Musk's rockets and artificial intelligence company. SpaceX will supply 300 megawatts of new computing capacity Using more than 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs…”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft and Nvidia committed up to $15B into Anthropic
“Microsoft and Nvidia this is according to your story, have committed to invest a total of up to fifteen billion in the company.”
NVIDIA is not a rational investment at a $4.32T market cap
“Like from, by any rational perspective, obviously, no.”
Gelsinger: Nvidia got lucky on AI because AI workloads resemble graphics
“Yeah, and it very much is that way, and Jensen and I, you know, we've known each other for 35 years, you know, this general purpose workload, and we always are adding more capabilities to the CPU, but over here, it was always just go really fast for graphics, …”
Gardizy: OpenAI Is Developing In-House Chips and Using Cerebras Hardware
“Yeah, yeah, they are. They're using chips from other companies. Cerebris is a good example, and they have their own in-house chip.”
Goode: NVIDIA Invested in CoreWeave, Which Used the Capital to Buy Chips
“They have become a major investor in CoreWeave, and then CoreWeave is using that money to buy NVIDIA chips.”
Goode: CoreWeave uses Nvidia investment money to buy Nvidia chips
“They're at the point where they have become a major investor in CoreWeave, and then CoreWeave is using that money to buy NVIDIA chips.”
Cherney: Nvidia has run out of growth avenues outside China
“Nvidia has run out of places to grow. They can't sell to any more countries. They can't sell to any more hyperscalers. They can't sell to any more. Even they're going after the enterprise market, which is messy and complicated and difficult to actually make a …”
Gardizi: OpenAI uses alternative chips and develops in-house silicon to diversify
“They're using chips from other companies. Cerebris is a good example, and they have their own in-house chip. So I think maybe publicly they're doing some big announcements with NVIDIA, and I believe it's five gigawatts they have to deploy in the next couple of…”
Brockman: Massive Scale AI Training Requires Concentrated Compute Clusters
“Well, because the, there's multiple reasons but one is that even as the balance of how much inference versus training changes, that you cannot get massive scale training Through any other way besides this concentration of compute on one problem.”
Nvidia CEO calls OpenClaw the biggest milestone since ChatGPT
“Jensen Wong, the NVIDIA CEO, happens to be driving the whole thing. Four and a half trillion dollar company, which is crazy. Just said that OpenClaw is the most important thing after ChatGPT.”
Siegler: Nvidia was likely acting as OpenAI's infrastructure debt guarantor
“To me, that seemed like what a big part of this deal was basically NVIDIA stepping in to be a, you know, a guarantor of the debt that, that opening AI would need to raise.”
Siegler: Nvidia likely to participate in OpenAI's new round instead of $100B deal
“Actually with open AI doing their new fundraise, it's more likely that NVIDIA is just going to be a part of that fundraise.”
Amon: Qualcomm is building post-GPU chips for data center inference
“So we're building what we believe is post-GPU. When you started to do inference and you need the dedicated engines, We're building that. I actually believe that the NVIDIA acquisition of Croc validates that you different engines for different things, and I thi…”
Intrator: NVIDIA invested $350M across two rounds while CoreWeave raised $25B
“NVIDIA has made two investments in CoreWeave. They made an investment of a hundred million dollars. And then they made an investment of and that was early, that was in the B round, I believe. .
Brian Venturo: At a two billion dollar valuation.
Michael Intrator…”
Cramer says a $10 trillion market valuation is possible for Nvidia
“Yes, I do, because when it was at three hundred billion, he told me it could be a couple trillion, and everyone laughed.”
Roy: Nvidia's accounts receivable are rising while cash conversion decreases
“One of the things I kept seeing popping up was if you dig one level lower accounts receivable for Nvidia are actually significantly higher than the typical past quarters. Free cash flow is decreasing or cash conversion of their actual sales. Like all these kin…”
Siegler: An Nvidia earnings miss could trigger a cascading market selloff
“Even if everything goes great for all of these companies, if something just happens in the macro markets and like causes Nvidia to slip on earnings one quarter, you see like this cascading effect. It's not hard to see. Like you can see how all of a sudden they…”
Oracle Lost Nearly $100 Million Renting Nvidia Blackwell Chips in Three Months
“In the three months that ended in August, Oracle lost nearly a hundred million from the rentals of NVIDIA's Blackwell chips.”
Siegler: Minor AI slowdown could trigger systemic debt collapse
“If a slowdown happens in, in several of, on several of these fronts on any number of, sorry, I should say on any one of these, like several fronts that are going right now, it can start like, it seems like it would start a cascading effect that would potential…”
Costica: DeepSeek's database leak was a typical cloud exposure, not an exotic exploit
“It was a very, ah, what I would say, typical exposure that exposed a lot of sensitive data, but yet, ah, if we look historically, there were similar incidents, for instance, with Microsoft releasing a token that had access to sensitive data in, you know, a buc…”
Rice: Chip Export Controls Cannot Eliminate China's AI Capabilities
“We know that the Nvidia chip, which was prohibited for sale in China, it probably slowed it, but we would be on a fool's errand if we think it's going to eliminate the ability of the Chinese to do these things.”
Levie: Nvidia hitting $400B in revenue and a $10T valuation is realistic
“To be worth 10 trillion dollars, you probably want, you know, three hundred billion in profit, let's say. And so with their margins, that means that, you know, they're doing four hundred billion in revenue. Like, that's totally not crazy. 405 hundred billion i…”
Lee: Nvidia's 30x Earnings Valuation Is Reasonable Compared to 1990s Toyota
“You know, NVIDIA is not crazy today, you know, because it's 30 times earnings, which is not a premium. I mean, Toyota traded at 40 times earnings for years in the nineties just making cars, and NVIDIA is not making a car. You know, they're making a really diff…”
Parker: Nvidia will not miss near-term earnings, beats Mag 7 peers
“I don't think they're going to miss their earnings in the short term, so I sort of think NVIDIA is Better position than the other Mac seven in the short term.”
Parker: Jensen Huang knows more about healthcare than most healthcare companies
“I think Jensen knows more about healthcare than most healthcare companies.”
Parker: Nvidia has 15-20% downside and 80-100% upside over 2-3 years
“I'm looking at, if I'm looking at this thing, I'm thinking, all right, maybe it has 15 to 20% downside and 80 to a hundred percent upside and a two to three year view for the best company with like a genius CEO and a product area that grows above GDP.”
Lebaredian: DeepSeek efficiency gains fit NVIDIA's decade-long progress curve
“So what we've seen here with DeepSeq is, is a great advancement that's on that same curve that we've been on for a decade now.”
NVIDIA VP: Film studios will adopt AI world models for faster, cheaper VFX
“What we're building with AI, with generative AI, and particularly with world foundation models, that once we get to the point where they really understand, ah, the depth of the physics that they need to produce something like Planet of the Apes, once we have t…”
Lebaredian: Future AI's greatest value will come from physical world interaction
“And our thesis is that from all the AIs we're going to create into the future, the most valuable ones are going to be the ones that can interact with our physical world.”
Lebaredian: ChatGPT would not exist without NVIDIA's early LLM software work
“Had we had not done that, I don't think we would have had ChatGPT.”
Lebaredian: AI Physics Understanding Will Unlock Most Robotics Applications in a Few Years
“At this point, I believe in a few years, we're going to get to a level of a physics understanding with our AIs that are, that's going to unlock, you know, the majority of the applications we need to apply them in, in robotics.”
Lebaredian: Making AI more efficient will increase overall compute demand
“I think intelligence is something that is probably the most endless of all, all computing problems. If we can throw more compute at the problem, we can make more intelligence and do it better and better. So making, making AI more efficient, Will just increase …”
Ives: NVIDIA will reach $4 trillion market cap in 3-6 months
“I think you're looking at four trillion dollar mark cap again in the next three to six months. I mean, that's, I think them and Apple, they battle it out for that finish line to get the four trillion.”
Batnick: Missing Nvidia hurts Cathie Wood's innovation fund credibility
“She sold it before the run and listen, she has a difficult job, but to make matters worse, like she never got back on and there was a lot of opportunity for her to do so. And when you market yourself as the innovation fund and you miss the biggest innovation o…”
Batnick: Nvidia could drop 50% without proving the bears right
“Can this thing get cut in half? Absolutely it can get cut in half. But does that prove the, does that prove that the bears were right? I don't think so. Growth stocks get cut in half all the time.”
Batnick: Nvidia got cheaper during its run as EPS sextupled
“So Nvidia has gotten cheaper. Over the course of the run, because the fundamentals have outrun even the incredible share price. So over the last, so last year Nvidia earned a dollar nine. That was her earnings per share. Over the last 12 months, it's done six …”
Kantrowitz: AI spending will slow without step-change gains in 18 months
“And from everything that I hear, it's going to be the next 18 months that will basically decide, like, if they do 18 more months of development of these models within OpenAI, within Anthropic, within Microsoft, and Meta, and don't see sort of step change incre…”
Google is the only tech giant with successful custom AI chips
“Google is the company that actually has a successful accelerator program for AI chips already with their TPUs, which other companies are trying, but don't yet have to replace, you know, Nvidia GPUs.”
Doshi: AI companies would leave NVIDIA if cheaper compute alternatives existed
“It's not CUDA that's keeping, I think, keeping a lot of us. It's actually that there is nothing really dramatically better than NVIDIA's GPUs. And so if there's nothing dramatically better than, I mean, the reality is the cost for training and inference are so…”
Catanzaro: Training data and compute matter more than AI model architecture
“The model is less important than the data. And the compute that goes into training the model. If you have a model that has really excellent compute properties that allows you to scale really well, efficiently to, you know, many thousand of GPUs, the kinds of r…”
Gelsinger: Intel aims to manufacture chips for Nvidia, AMD, and hyperscalers
“You know, we're also going to be a foundry. We're going to be the manufacturer for many of those chips as well. So we want to be the manufacturer for Nvidia, for AMD, for Google, for Amazon. We want to be their manufacturing partner, even if we're not using ou…”
Gelsinger: Intel, AMD, and Nvidia will be AI's three big merchant providers
“There's going to be those that build their own, you know, and that's what you see Amazon, Microsoft, Google are doing. They're going to say, hey, I'm going to own this and do this myself. And then there's going to be the general providers in the marketplace, a…”
McCullough: GPU Startups Could Provide Alternatives to AWS and Incumbent Clouds
“There are these new startups that have access to the Nvidia chips that are creating sort of sort of new cloud offerings I've been hearing from a lot of people that, like, this could provide the opening for people to get a wedge against the traditional, because…”
McDermott: Generative AI is an undeniable secular shift driving enterprise tech
“And if you believe like I do, that this is now a secular movement that's undeniable. And one that will fundamentally change the enterprise, then you'd have a bull case on NVIDIA and all companies in the enterprise that can be generative AI market leaders.”