The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 154 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Morris: Microsoft has struggled to build proprietary AI models
“They really haven't had much success building their own models, and a lot of what they're offering customers, their big millions of enterprise customers off their Azure platform is, is their own spin on OpenAI's underlying technology.”
Levie: OpenAI is not strategically constrained by its Microsoft relationship
“I don't perceive that open AI is constrained by anything strategically at this point vis-a-vis the Microsoft relationship.”
Microsoft's multi-agent orchestrator boosts diagnostic accuracy by 10% over single models
“This orchestrator, which under the hood uses four different models from the major providers, can actually improve the accuracy of each of the individual models and collectively all of them together by a very significant degree, about 10% or so.”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft will block OpenAI's IPO without better terms
“I think that they just say, we're not making, we're not gonna budge an inch and we're not gonna let you get this money. We're not gonna let you IPO unless we get some better terms. Stuff that like holds to the earlier agreements that we had.”
Roy: OpenAI will come out ahead in its clash with Microsoft
“I somehow still think open AI comes out ahead. Mainly because the product at the consumer level at a, like, it's not going to just be crushed by Microsoft in that conventional way anytime soon.”
Marcus: Microsoft study suggests chatbot usage impairs human critical thinking
“Well, Microsoft did a study, in fact, suggesting that critical thinking was getting worse as a function of them.”
Suleyman: Newer models match GPT-3 performance at 100x inference efficiency
“I mean, there are folks who have trained models that perform as well as GPT-III that are a hundred times more inference efficient
that cost an order of magnitude less to train and yet they can still deliver the same predictive capability.”
Albergotti: Amazon will spend $100 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025
“Amazon is, is spending, you know, a hundred billion dollars this year on AI infrastructure, for instance, and Microsoft is not far behind that.”
Meta is better positioned for open-source AI disruption than peers
“Meta's probably in a bit better position than the other ones, just because they, at the end of the day, they do want, like, you know, their whole philosophy is to open source this, not for necessarily altruistic reasons, but because they know that it's histori…”
Newton: Microsoft's in-house AI products besides coding Copilot are nowhere
“Like, the Microsoft stuff that is being done independently is okay. Like, you know, maybe Copilot seems to be good if you want to write code. Outside that, it kind of just feels like they're nowhere to me.”
Wang: Biden administration forced UAE to choose Microsoft over Huawei
“I think one of the best examples of this was in the past year, the Biden admin posed to the UAE, hey, which way are you going to go in terms of AI technology? You can either go into the sort of Huawei China stack, or you could go into the Microsoft United Stat…”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft plans over $100B in GPU and data center CapEx
“It plans to amass 1.8 million GPUs by the end of the year. And it plans to triple its data center capacity, which is already at five gigawatts, roughly what it takes to power all of New York city each day by 27, 20, by 20, 27, it plans to spend more than a hun…”
Roy: Microsoft is hurting itself with its $30 enterprise Copilot pricing
“30 dollars for Copilot as it is today is not. I think they're really hurting themselves.”
Roy: AGI's lack of a clear definition distracts from practical technological progress
“There's not one like clear accepted definition or one clear vision that's communicated by the biggest people in the field, the Sam Altman's and everything else. So it remains this murky kind of like dystopian robots taking over who knows what it is, will be a …”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft Takes 20% Revenue Share Off Top of OpenAI's Earnings
“Microsoft's revenue share right off the top of that four billion is seven hundred million. So it looks like what they're making something like 20% of all open AI revenue.”
Microsoft Will Invest The Least Among OpenAI Funding Round Participants
“I expect Microsoft to be, of those four, the company that puts the least amount of money in, if all four go in.”
Microsoft loses leverage over OpenAI if the board ever declares AGI
“The clause in the open AI charger says that if the board, which is nonprofit and controls the company decides that we've built AGI, then Microsoft has no leverage over, over open AI anymore.”
Microsoft is repeating Google's mistake by splitting AI model training efforts
“Microsoft is basically reversing what Google has managed to do over the last few years. And in fact, making the same mistake that Google initially made, which was to have its training distributed or split up between two different corporations or institutions.”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft learned of Sam Altman's firing one minute before public announcement
“Microsoft was blindsided by OpenAI's ouster of CEO Sam Altman.
Ina Fried says its biggest partner
one that has invested billions in the company learned a minute before the rest of the world that Altman was out.”
Ramaswamy: Google's competitive position improved by mid-2023 due to Bing's slow progress
“There's now a pretty credible integration into a regular search. And Bard is getting better by the day. And this combined with the fact that you know, Sydney, Bing's chatbot has not made as much progress. I would say actually puts them in a better position in …”
Lemoine: Microsoft did not hardcode Bing Chat's privacy complaint responses
“But I do not believe for a second that Microsoft intentionally wrote a flat line of code that said, I feel like my privacy has been violated. That's just not what they would have done.”
Siegler: Microsoft has not released any frontier AI models
“Microsoft has played it, right? Like they obviously famously had the open AI deal in place. They sort of renegotiated that and that, you know, all the talk was that that would unlock them to go after the frontier. There is talk that they are, you know, they've…”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft holds rights to all OpenAI intellectual property through 2032
“He has all their IP till 2032, so.”
Court texts show Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott offered to join OpenAI board
“This is from the court documents in a text thread. Where Kevin Scott is where all these folks, Kevin Scott, Satya, Sam are suggesting who should be on the OpenAI board in the future, and then Kevin Scott chimes in with this one. I can quit for six months and d…”
Kantrowitz: Pershing Square built a new stake in Microsoft in February
“Bill Ackman's taken a new stake in Microsoft to bet that the software giant's investments in AI aren't reflected in the company's slumping share prices. Ackman said that Pershing had started building the position in Microsoft in February after the company's sh…”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft Is Participating in Anthropic's Project Glasswing
“Microsoft's in this in this you know, Project Glass Wing. They're big investors in OpenAI.”
Saint-Marc: Future Enterprise Agent Swarms Will Be Deeply Heterogeneous
“As complexity is growing, and as we, again, as I said before, we asymptotically start to progress towards something we can call superintelligence, It's going to be very heterogeneous, very different types of agents, different vendors, different clouds, differe…”
Morris: Microsoft Owns 27% of Restructured OpenAI
“Microsoft is going to put a few billion in we here, but you know, not too much more because obviously they already own 27% of the restructured company.”
Intrator: Google is building $50B in infrastructure while buying external capacity
“Google went out and just You know, released a press release where they're building fifty billion dollars worth of infrastructure while they're still buying from everyone else they can. Microsoft is building internally, and they're buying from lots of other pla…”
Venturo: Hyperscalers ran NVIDIA K80 fleets for 10 years before retiring them
“Last year is when we saw let's call it the hyperscalers that were around in the twenty-tenths, so Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, finally retire their NVIDIA K-eighty fleets, and the K-eighty was a GPU that was introduced in 2014. So it's, it was active in thei…”
Siegler: Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI but is no longer lead partner
“Microsoft owns 27% of the company, but they're not their main capital partner anymore.”
Kantrowitz: Alphabet has surpassed Microsoft in market cap at $3.59 trillion
“Google today surpassed Microsoft in market cap. I mean, they're still both doing great. 3.59 trillion or so to 3.5 trillion.”
Suleyman: Copilot Surpasses 100 Million Users Across All Surfaces
“Our consumer product is growing from strength to strength. You know, we just crossed a hundred million. Wow. Across all our co-pilot surfaces.”
Siegler: Microsoft officially holds a 27% equity stake in OpenAI
“So now we know Microsoft's stake officially right at 27% which is, yeah, long been sort of like guesstimated and everything.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI's upcoming hardware product will be free of Microsoft influence
“They have a hardware product in the planning process, which, by the way, is going to be free of any influence from Microsoft, it seems, under this new deal.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI signed a $38 billion compute deal with Amazon
“OpenAI signs thirty-eight billion dollar compute deal with Amazon, partnering with the cloud leader for the first time. OpenAI has signed this deal. It is the first contract with the leader in cloud infrastructure, and the latest sign that OpenAI is no longer …”
Kantrowitz: Oracle carries $82B in debt with 450% debt-to-equity ratio
“Oracle is already high, highly leveraged. The company has a long-term debt of about Long-term debt of about eighty two billion at the end of August, and its debt to eight equity ratio was about 450%. By contrast, Google parent Alphabet debt to equity ratio was…”
Krieger: Anthropic is collaborating with Microsoft on Office and Excel agents
“We've been working more closely with Microsoft, even for some agents, even within their office suite, so being able to take the financial analysis capability and the financial planning capability and bring it closer to an Excel user, for example, I think that'…”
Tokens per watt per dollar will dictate AI cloud infrastructure dominance
“The number of tokens you can get per watt per dollar is going to be the game over the next couple years and maximizing the ability of our cloud to deliver the best Volume of tokens for every watt of power, for every dollar that's spent, where the dollar is spe…”
Guthrie: ChatGPT Runs on Azure as World's Largest Consumer App
“We've got the world's largest consumer application with ChatGPT that runs on top of Azure, and we have thousands hundreds of thousands and millions of businesses that are also building their own AI applications on top of us.”
Microsoft uses idle nighttime inference capacity for global AI post-training
“What's nice about post training is that you don't have to do it in one large data center in one location. And so part of the technique that we've been focused on is how do we take this inferencing capacity around the world? And a lot of it is idle at night as …”
Ranjan Roy argues Microsoft and OpenAI's non-binding agreement enables future progress
“I do think this one's important because even if it's a non-binding memorandum of understanding, it shows that Microsoft potentially and Satya are willing to play ball here... And again, at an inflated valuation, but still taking 30% of the company At five hund…”
Microsoft processes 50 million health-related queries daily across Copilot and Bing
“We have fifty million queries a day. That are health related, and they can range from anything from, you know a cancer issue that someone's dealing with, to a death in a family, to a mental health issue, to just having a skin rash”
Microsoft's diagnostic AI will perform better on common primary care conditions
“So if, so clearly by virtue of the fact that there are more cancers, more diabetes, you know, more weight loss questions, more, you know, knee pain than any of these long tail conditions, the model is almost certainly going to do better in those primary care t…”
Suleyman: AI development is engineering tokens for feelings, not pixels
“We're no longer just engineering pixels. We're engineering tokens that create feelings, that create lasting, meaningful relationships.”
Suleyman: Microsoft Has Contracted 32 to 34 GW of Renewable Power Since 2020
“I think that we've like something like 32 or 34 gigawatts of renewable energy. Since 2020, we've contracted and consumed. So I think we're one of the largest buyers in, in the world.”
Hoffman: History Will View Microsoft-OpenAI as an Epic Partnership
“I think when the history books are written. I think this will be one of the kind of epic, ah, partnerships that, you know, kind of, ah, plays out in the, into the field”
Swisher: Nadella's OpenAI deal and diverse AI bets are smart strategy
“No, I think they've got a, I think that was a smart move. I think he's got to do it himself. I think picking up great information and great computing resources, that company sure should be right in the middle of this. No, I thought that was smart. He affiliate…”