why aren't all 71 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Meta AI leaders discussed temporarily licensing Google Gemini for their products
“The leaders of Meta's AI division Have instead discussed temporarily licensing Gemini to power the company's AI product.”
Assertion Supported
Haugen: Facebook VIP Cross-Check Whitelisted Users and Delayed Reviews Three Days
“In reality, because they weren't willing to spend a very small amount of budget, they didn't actually put that second check in for most safety systems. So for most safety systems, people got white listed. So if you were in cross check, the safety systems no lo…”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Top tech companies hold $3T in off-balance sheet AI commitments
“Nine, top tech companies had some three trillion dollars of off balance sheet commitments, mostly related to AI. Those obligations are growing faster than traditional capex, which totaled about six hundred billion over the past year past year they reported, an…”
Assertion Supported
Luria: Meta used a Blue Owl SPV to finance data centers off-balance-sheet
“The other thing that happened with Meta that was interesting is that when they Went out to borrow. They didn't borrow the capital. They created a special purpose vehicle, right? They went out with Blue Owl and they said, you know, we'll put a couple of billion…”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Zuckerberg Offered $32B for Safe Superintelligence and Was Rejected
“Zuckerberg tried to spend thirty two billion on Ilya Suskever's AI start, startup, safe super intelligence. Suskever ultimately turned Meta down.”
Assertion Supported
Haugen: Facebook's algorithm drove 65% of joins to German neo-Nazi groups
“In 2016, they found out that 65% of people who joined neo-Nazi groups in Germany, where they are illegal, like you can't have a neo-Nazi Facebook group in Germany, joined them because Facebook suggested that group to people.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: $27B in debt financing Meta's Hyperion project is off-balance sheet
“Meta's gigantic Hyperion data center project in Louisiana, which is the size of about 1700 football fields, helps explain how obligations wind up off tech companies' balance sheets. Though Meta is the builder, neither Hyperion nor the twenty-seven billion in d…”
Assertion Contradicted
Roy: Meta capex figures exclude $46B in Hyperion SPV debt exposure
“Meta recorded 88.6 billion in capital expenditures, but that doesn't include the Hyperion SPV, which had its own forty six billion dollars of exposure.”
Assertion Supported
Himel: Meta has not launched facial recognition on smart glasses
“We don't have a feature called that or that does that feature that's launched in the glasses.”
Assertion Supported
Demis Hassabis rejected higher Facebook offer because Mark Zuckerberg misunderstood AI's potential
“Facebook offered more money, but I wanted somebody who really understood why AI would be bigger than all those things. And then he sold to Google.”
Assertion Partly supported
Meta delays flagship AI model after failing to outperform Gemini 2.5
“Meta's new foundational AI model, which the company has been working on for months, has fallen short on the performance leading AI models the performance of leading AI models from rivals like Google, OpenAI, and Anthropik. On internal testing, it is now delaye…”
Prediction Partly held up
Kantrowitz: Meta's Open Source AI Strategy Is Definitely Done
“I think they're not going to, their open source strategy is definitely done.”
Prediction Partly held up
Albergati: Meta's Future AI Models Will Be Closed or Backend-Only
“I think at this point, the new models are either going to just be part of their products, like almost backend technology, or they'll be, you know, they'll be closed models, just like open AI.”
Assertion Supported
Meta will use AI chatbot conversations to target Instagram and Facebook ads
“Meta has basically announced that, yeah, we're going to take everything you say to an AI chat bot and we are going to Basically have it affect the kind of ads that you see on Instagram and Facebook. Of course there are some exceptions if you are talking about …”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Meta agrees to $14.8B 49% stake in Scale AI
“Meta has agreed to take a 49%
stake in the data labeling firm Scale AI for 14.8 billion.
Meta will send the cash to Scale's existing shareholders and place the startup CEO Alexander Wang, former Big Technology podcast guest in a top position inside Meta.
Meta…”
Assertion Supported
Meta and Anduril partner to develop military AR/VR hardware
“Luckey's defense company Andrel and Meta said Thursday that they will together build a line of new rugged helmets, glasses, and other wearables that provide a virtual reality or augmented reality experience.”
Assertion Supported
Anduril and Meta's Eagle Eye system integrates AI models with battlefield sensors
“The system called Eagle Eye will carry sensors that enhance soldiers' hearing and vision, detecting drones flying miles away or sighting hidden targets, for instance. It will also let soldiers operate and interact with AI-powered weapon systems. Andro's autono…”
Prediction Held up
Bosworth: Wrist neural interfaces will eventually work without physical gestures
“Over time, we think we can do that without having any gestures at all. Just having the intention, expressing the intention down your control system.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Meta increased metaverse spending despite its 'Year of Efficiency' cost cuts
“That's actually not what happened. They didn't cut spend at all. They, in fact, increased spend on the metaverse. I mean, they are not taking their foot off the gas pedal there, and they've just tried to trim elsewhere within the company.”
Assertion Supported
Haugen: Users Found Facebook Feeds Less Meaningful After 2018 Algorithm Change
“Back in 2018, Facebook switched from just seeing how long they could keep you on Facebook, to seeing could they drive you to do interaction. And they called it meaningful social interactions. Stuff that got more interactions was considered better content. Even…”
Assertion Partly supported
Haugen: Meta Oversight Board Scope Is Limited Strictly to Moderation Appeals
“It really should be called the content moderation appeals board because that is the entire scope of what they can do. They can't ask about the performance of the content moderation systems. They can't even ask, like, what language are the content moderation sy…”
Assertion Partly supported
Thiel designed the stock structure that drove Zuckerberg and Saverin apart
“It was Teal who sort of set in motion this stock structure that creates the conflict between Eduardo Saverin and Mark Zuckerberg, which is the, you know, whatever the basis of the social network.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Meta Agrees to $18B Settlement Over Youth Addiction Claims
“Meta agrees to pay eighteen billion to settle U.S. Lawsuits over children's social media addiction, and it's going to pay it over the next decade, and strictly limit how teenagers use Facebook and Instagram under an agreement with nearly all U.S. States to res…”
Assertion Supported
Siegler: Zuckerberg Acknowledged Meta Could Launch Cloud Infrastructure For Outside Businesses
“Zuckerberg, even this week or this past week was in the news again saying, like, basically acknowledging that with all the capex spend, if they need to, they can roll out a cloud, right? They can roll out a cloud that other businesses can use.”
Assertion Supported
Meta Intranet Leaderboard 'Claudeonomics' Ranked Token Usage for 85,000 Employees
“The ranking set up by Meta, by a Meta employee on its intranet, use company data, measure how many tokens employees are burning through, dubbed Claudeonomics after the flagship product from Anthropic, the leaderboards, leaderboard aggregates AI usage from 85,0…”
Assertion Supported
Meta executives consider up to 30 percent budget cuts to metaverse group
“Executives are considering potential budget cuts as high as 30%, 30% for the metaverse group this year, which includes the virtual world's product, Meta Horizon Worlds, and its Quest virtual reality units. Cuts that high would most likely include layoffs as ea…”
Assertion Partly supported
Kantrowitz: Yann LeCun left Meta to launch a Meta-funded AI startup
“Jan LeCun has left. Inevitable. I'm not going to even take too much credit because the most likely thing ever, most likely prediction I've ever made yet. He's gonna start his own startup. Looks like Facebook is gonna fund it. So in part.”
Assertion Supported
Luria: Meta Lacks Enterprise Customers to Rent Out Excess Data Center Capacity
“Meta again is an unusual situation because they don't actually have business customers to rent this capacity to. It really is just Mr. Zuckerberg wanting a bigger and bigger toy.”
Assertion Supported
Meta cuts approximately 600 jobs in its AI division
“Meta said on Wednesday that it cut approximately 600 jobs in its artificial intelligence division.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Meta to cut off ChatGPT access on WhatsApp next year
“Meta said Saturday it would cut off access to non-meta chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT on WhatsApp beginning next year.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Zuckerberg Testified Only 17% of Facebook Time Goes to Friends' Posts
“Only 17% of Facebook and seven percent of Instagram time are spent with friends posts.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Meta AI has 600M users compared to OpenAI's 400M
“And I was just speaking with Jan LeCun, the chief AI scientist at Meta, and he said there's Six hundred million people using their AI assistant within their apps compared to four hundred million of open AI's chat GPT.”
Assertion Supported
Meta's new real-time image generation model produces outputs under one second
“And that's why we did all this model work to really get this thing very fast. It's under a second, which is like really, really exciting.”
Assertion Contradicted
Haugen: Meta increased safety spending two to three times post-leak
“We've seen them having to increase the amount they spend on safety by two to three times, which is huge compared to the past times they've increased safety.”
Assertion Supported
Ranjan Roy: Meta rebuilt its ad infrastructure using LLMs and agentic AI
“They rebuilt their entire advertising infrastructure to incorporate large language models and agentic processes and the newer vintage of AI rather than the traditional machine learning, and that's what's made it, I mean, it basically just, not saved, but like,…”
Assertion Partly supported
Siegler: Meta spends $130B on CapEx while Apple spends around $18B-$20B
“We have Meta over here that's spending a hundred and thirty billion dollars in CapEx, whereas Apple is spending much closer to zero. You know, it's something around, like, it's like 18 or twenty billion dollars in CapEx. Because they're not building out obviou…”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses have sold 2 million lifetime units
“Guess how many lifetime Meta Ray-Bans glasses, the most successful quote unquote AI wearable, Ever has sold. Guess how many units it sold? Two million.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Siegler: Meta will announce its superintelligence model 'Avocado' within weeks
“We're probably a few weeks away, maybe less from whatever they're going to, you know, announce in terms of coming out of their new AGS super intelligence efforts, their avocado model.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Meta poaches Apple UI design chief Alan Dye
“Apple's head of user interface design, Alan Dye, along with the deputy and maybe some other team members, went over to Meta. Meta poached them.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Meta AI cuts spared new superintelligence hires
“The cuts on Wednesday did not affect the newest hires who have been empowered to develop super intelligence.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Close to a dozen Apple AI leaders have left for Meta
“I think this is, what, close to a dozen. Folks from Apple's AI division that have left to Meta, including a large percentage of, it seems like a large percentage of its leadership.”
Assertion Partly supported
Kantrowitz: Zuckerberg's voice prompt crashed Meta's live demo servers
“Apparently Zuck said, hey, Meta, start live AI. It activated everybody's AI in the room, and effectively DDoSed the servers. All of the servers were all, all the traffic was also routed to the company's servers in Iceland, apparently. So, that's why it broke.”
Assertion Partly supported
Google Announces $10 Billion AI Infrastructure Deal With Meta
“They just announced this is something that came up in our discord. They just announced this ten billion dollar deal with Meta for AI infrastructure.”
Assertion Partly supported
LeCun: Meta AI has reached 600 million users
“Well, you have three point something billion users six hundred million users of Meta AI.”
Assertion Supported
Boureau: Facebook M was a hybrid AI-human system
“No, we had some, so the way I worked on the M team for a bit. So no, there was a, it was a hybrid thing. Like the AI would make suggestions and the humans were just to make sure that it was still a good quality, which a lot of the systems are still like that.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Meta raised AI CapEx guidance to $64B–$72B
“CapEx, spending that they're gonna go from AI, is gonna go, the original range was 65 60 to sixty-five billion. Now it's going to be 64 to seventy two billion, largely on artificial intelligence investments.”
Prediction Held up
Patel: Meta's next Llama model will match DeepSeek-V3's cost efficiency
“And Meta's Meta is going to release their new llama soon enough. Right. And that one is going to be, you know, a similar level of cost decrease probably similar areas, deep seek V three.”
Assertion Contradicted
StumbleUpon drove more publisher web traffic than Facebook did in 2012
“When you and I first started working together, you know, stumble upon was the thing driving the most traffic, not Facebook for most publishers.”