The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 11 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kantrowitz: Meta will partner with Google or OpenAI on smart glasses
“Over the next year, you will see Meta bring in other AI models. You will see them partner with Google. You might see them partner with OpenAI.”
Kantrowitz: Regulators will likely break up Google and potentially Meta
“The vibe here is that we're going to see breakups very likely of Google and potentially of Facebook.”
Cramer: Meta and YouTube will capture 50% to 70% of ad market
“In the end, Mark is going to have, along with YouTube, 50%, if not 70% of the advertising market. And that's a very big market.”
Link: Amazon will deliver ~20% 5-year CAGR, beating Meta and Google
“And I think you're going to see a CAGR of about 20% for the next five years at this company versus Meta at 13% and versus Google at 12.8%.”
Ives: Meta and Google will eventually integrate into Apple Intelligence
“Apple basically said, we now will be the castle for AI. And if you want access to it, you got to come through Apple intelligence, clearly open AI. I eventually think Meta Google are going to have to make the same move.”
Morris: Meta to double annual CapEx to $135 billion
“Meta double is going to double this year. It's capex. So like spending on data centers and chips and servers and everything that goes into supporting that upgrading power structure, it's going to double it to one hundred and thirty five billion, you know, from…”
Siegler: Smart glasses will not replace smartphones within 5 to 10 years
“It also doesn't sound like the type of thing that's, you know, people are going to leave their smartphones behind anytime in the next five to 10 years.”
Bosworth: AR Glasses Will Be Usable and Enjoyed Within a Decade
“It's within our lifetime, certainly within the next decade, it's in our view we're going to be able to use and enjoy this technology.”
LeCun: Meta's Galactica AI demo was pulled by its development team
“Well, so what happened was the team that worked on it, which is within FAIR is called Papers with Code. They were so distraught by the reaction that they just couldn't take it. They said like, you know, we're just going to take it down. Like this was not a hig…”
Sorkin: Facebook will not ultimately be broken up
“I think Facebook will ultimately get broken up? No, I don't.”
Newton: Meta Orion consumer glasses are years away and will be downgraded
“So my understanding is that the Orion headset is, like, multiple years out, and that when it arrives, it won't actually even be as good as the glasses that we tried on this year, because in order to make the cost work, they're just gonna have to, like, rip out…”