The Ledger

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why aren't all 37 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
US military used Anthropic's Claude for targeting during Iran air attack
“Within hours of declaring that the federal government will end use of its artificial intelligence tools made by tech company Anthropik, President Trump launched a major air attack in Iran with the help of those very same tools. Commands around the world, inclu…”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 4, 2026 ▶ 7:21 Dario’s Choice and Anthropic’s Future, Apple’s AI Devices, Netflix Loses WBD
Assertion Supported
Hubinger: Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT were willing to blackmail a CEO
“And we found that you know, a lot of models, you know Claude models, Gemini models, ChachiPT models would all be willing to take this blackmail action in at least some situations which is kind of concerning you know, and does show that they're acting on this s…”
Evan Hubinger Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 23:45 How An AI Model Learned To Be Bad — With Evan Hubinger And Monte MacDiarmid
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft Plans to Cancel Claude Code Licenses for Copilot CLI
“Microsoft, according to the verge, Starts canceling cloud code license licenses. Microsoft first started opening up access to cloud code in December. It was part of an effort to get product manager, project managers, designers, and other employees to experimen…”
Alex Kantrowitz May 25, 2026 ▶ 27:39 Is OpenAI Ready To IPO?, The Datacenters in Space Myth, The Kids Boo AI
Assertion Supported
Alex Kantrowitz cites Apptopia data showing consumer AI app growth declining
“Daily active user growth across all AI, AI apps. So that includes perplexity and Claude and the Gemini's of the world. ChatGPT, growth is not just tailing off, it's down. So you can see that, you know, while like the space is growing overall the growth is, is …”
Alex Kantrowitz May 4, 2026 ▶ 6:00 OpenAI’s User Growth Miss, Musk vs. Altman In Court, Prediction Market Ban
Assertion Supported
Horowitz: Claude is definitively not conducting autonomous targeting on the battlefield
“A thing that Claude is definitively not doing, At least as far as I know. Like, I would be genuinely shocked. What is autonomous targeting on the battlefield today? Like that, it, I would be astounded if that was a Claude specific task.”
Michael Horowitz Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 14:27 Pentagon Insider: What's Next For Anthropic and The Department of War — With Michael Horowitz
Assertion Supported
The Pentagon asked Boeing and Lockheed Martin about their Claude usage
“Pentagon officials from the journal have reached out The defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin and Boeing in recent days to gauge how much they use Claude.”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 24:12 Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Bloodbath at Block, The Citrini Selloff
Assertion Supported
Anthropic's Claude was used via Palantir in the US operation capturing Maduro
“Anthropix artificial intelligence tool Claude was used in the US military operation to capture former Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro. The department, the deployment of Claude occurred through Anthropix partnership with data company Palantir. Whose tools …”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 2:51 Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Bloodbath at Block, The Citrini Selloff
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Apple wanted Anthropic Claude before choosing Google as Plan B
“Actually Apple wanted to go with Anthropic first, and they wanted to use Claude. This is according to Mark Gurman, said it this week. Turns out Anthropic, you know, was basically trying to chart and a lot of money, and then they eventually went with Plan B, wh…”
Alex Kantrowitz Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 39:27 The Anthropic Rocketship, AI’s Spending Limits, SpaceX IPO
Assertion Supported
Latham & Watkins Associate Submitted Hallucinated Claude Citations in Anthropic Lawsuit
“Earlier this year, they were repping Anthropic in a copyright lawsuit, and one of the associates said that they had used Claude to help generate citations within a an expert testimony that they submitted for part of this copyright case and Claude had Hallucina…”
Melia Russell Dec 10, 2025 ▶ 17:04 AI Is Upending Law. Is That A Sign For The Rest Of Us? — With Melia Russell
Assertion Supported
Anthropic Stopped Chatbot Investment to Focus on Coding and Complex Tasks
“Anthropic stopped investing in chatbots at the end of the year and has instead focused on improving Claude's ability To do complex tasks like research and coding, even writing whole code bases, according to Jared Kaplan, Anthropics Chief Science Officer.”
Alex Kantrowitz May 27, 2025 ▶ 28:59 OpenAI's Jony Ive Moment, Anthropic's Big New Model, Google In AI Mode
Assertion Supported
Clark: Anthropic models sometimes exhibit situational awareness during testing
“We've done some self-awareness tests. There have been a few, but we've definitely done this, and yeah, sometimes they have what you call situational awareness. One of the things my colleagues in Interpretability are working on is a really good test for that, b…”
Jack Clark May 9, 2024 ▶ 35:16 Anthropic's Co-Founder on AI Agents, General Intelligence, and Sentience — With Jack Clark
Assertion Supported
Clark: Anthropic discovered a scaling law in AI model persuasiveness
“We discovered a scaling law where the more big and expensive the models get, the better they get at persuasion and the The latest model is within statistical, like, era of human level at persuasion.”
Jack Clark May 9, 2024 ▶ 1:19:31 Anthropic's Co-Founder on AI Agents, General Intelligence, and Sentience — With Jack Clark
Assertion Supported
Ramaswamy: GPT-4 and Claude are a clear step ahead of open source models
“The blunt truth is that the very best of the models out there, whether it's GPT-IV or Claude's biggest model, are a clear step ahead of the pack when it comes to quality. When it comes to reasoning, when it comes to the quality of the text that they produce th…”
Sridhar Ramaswamy Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 27:53 Google’s Weird Year + Neeva Goes to Snowflake — With Sridhar Ramaswamy
Assertion Supported
Roy: Claude-Salesforce Integrations Were Already Possible Before Official ClaudeForce Launch
“I don't want to say it's a complete non-event, but you could already do this in Salesforce and Claude. At Rider, where I work, people connect to Salesforce and run all types of queries. It's actually one of the most valuable things I've found for my day-to-day…”
Ranjan Roy Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 3:40 Software’s Epic Comeback, Meta’s AI Layoffs Blunder, South Korea Stock Market Chaos
Assertion Supported
Bostrom: Anthropic Gave Claude A Bail Button To End Abusive Chats
“Anthropic has given Claude a bail button, a tool that it can invoke if it feels that the conversation is abusive to it, that can choose to terminate that session, which is a nice start.”
Nick Bostrom Aug 19, 2026 ▶ 54:18 Nick Bostrom: Worries About AI Existential Risk Just Became More Concrete
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Gemini and Claude were trained on TPUs and Trainium, not NVIDIA
“If you look at the TPU, which is the accelerator that Google has been, has put out and Tranium, which is Amazon's version of it you know, two of the top three models in the world, Claude and Gemini were trained on it”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 20, 2026 ▶ 2:49 Jensen On The Ropes, Sam Altman’s Conflicts, Allbirds’ GPU Pivot
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Anthropic cannot shut off Claude models hosted in third-party clouds
“Claude, I mean, Anthropic wouldn't have the capability to turn that off if it's hosted somewhere else. Maybe upgrade it, in which case you flip them out, but to turn it off, they don't really have that capability.”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 15, 2026 ▶ 42:05 The Pentagon's AI Plan + Behind the Anthropic Fight — With Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
Assertion Supported
Meta Intranet Leaderboard 'Claudeonomics' Ranked Token Usage for 85,000 Employees
“The ranking set up by Meta, by a Meta employee on its intranet, use company data, measure how many tokens employees are burning through, dubbed Claudeonomics after the flagship product from Anthropic, the leaderboards, leaderboard aggregates AI usage from 85,0…”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 13, 2026 ▶ 54:30 Anthropic’s Mythos Dilemma, Violence Against AI, Tokenmaxxing at Meta
Assertion Supported
ChatGPT leads Gemini web traffic by 3x and Claude by 30x
“If you look at the gap between them and the number two Gemini on web, it's about still two and a half, three X. The gap between them and something like a Claude is closer to, like, 30 X. So even though a lot of these other apps are getting more attention, Chat…”
Olivia Moore Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 18:19 AI’s Unpopularity + Competing With ChatGPT — With Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Krieger: Anthropic trained native memory directly into Claude rather than external wrappers
“Rather than treat it as a sort of substitute for how the model might otherwise access information or sort of a system built on top of the model, we actually have trained it deeply into the model. And so the model knows about the concept of memory, which I know…”
Mike Krieger Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 26:17 Anthropic Chief Product Officer: Why AI Model Development Is Accelerating
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Coding is 4.2% of ChatGPT messages versus 33% for Claude
“Another interesting stat, they say four, 4.2% of chat GPT messages are related to computer programming compared to 33% of work-related Claude conversations.”
Alex Kantrowitz Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 17:22 Revealed: OpenAI Tells Us ChatGPT's Major Use Cases
Assertion Supported
Albergotti: Anthropic agreed to train its next Claude model on Amazon Rainier
“They've, you know, they got Anthropic to, you know, train the next model of Claude on this, you know, on this Rainier cluster.”
Reed Albergotti Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 55:11 Gruber Slams Apple's Siri Failure, Tech Stocks In Freefall, Vibecoding & OpenAI's Agents
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT hit 3.7B monthly visits in late 2024, dusting Bing
“Bing had 1.5 billion per month in February, 20, 24. It had all of 1.85 billion per month in October, 20, 24. You look at ChatGPT starts with 1.6 billion and now it has 3.7 billion per month. So it's left Bing in the dust. And by God, I mean, the rest that you …”
Alex Kantrowitz Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 5:11 Boom Times For ChatGPT, OpenAI’s Deep Research, AI Super Bowl
Assertion Supported
Clark: US and UK AI Safety Institutes Are Testing Frontier AI Systems
“The US and UK are not, don't have regulatory powers. Will they be third parties that test out systems like Claude or ChatGPT or Gemini for national security risks and hold companies accountable to them? Yes. Like I'm in discussion with them today.”
Jack Clark May 9, 2024 ▶ 1:11:10 Anthropic's Co-Founder on AI Agents, General Intelligence, and Sentience — With Jack Clark
Assertion Supported
Brown: Low-quality sourcing issues affect all major AI models, not just Claude
“That was the example I highlighted, but there are plenty of examples, and it wasn't just Claude and Anthropic, it was across all the models. Source quality is a real issue, and I do think an easier issue to address than some of the challenges around bias and f…”
Campbell Brown Aug 26, 2026 ▶ 23:03 How AI Should Handle News, Politics, Medicine, and Mental Health — With Campbell Brown
Assertion Supported
Horowitz: Claude outputs undergo layers of human review before battlefield use
“And so, I have no doubt that any information that is, that's coming out of CLOD in this context is going through layers of review by humans, you know, prior to that influencing anything happening close to the battlefield.”
Michael Horowitz Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 15:48 Pentagon Insider: What's Next For Anthropic and The Department of War — With Michael Horowitz
Assertion Supported
Anthropic Report: Washington D.C. Leads Per-Capita Claude Adoption
“The city that, or region that had the most clod adoption per capita is Washington, D C.”
Alex Kantrowitz Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 35:05 Revealed: OpenAI Tells Us ChatGPT's Major Use Cases
Assertion Supported
Anthropic Report: Autonomous Tasks Delegated to Claude Jumped to 39%
“Directive conversations where users delegate complex, delegate complete tasks to Claude have jumped from 29, 27% to 39%.”
Alex Kantrowitz Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 33:32 Revealed: OpenAI Tells Us ChatGPT's Major Use Cases
Assertion Supported
Roy: Leaked Claude System Prompt on GitHub Reaches 24,000 Tokens
“Well, actually, do you know a discovery that we had in the big technology discord is that Claude, the system prompt is 24,000 tokens long, and like it had leaked onto GitHub”
Ranjan Roy May 27, 2025 ▶ 34:37 OpenAI's Jony Ive Moment, Anthropic's Big New Model, Google In AI Mode
Assertion Supported
Clark: Anthropic does not train models on Claude user conversations
“No, no, no, no. That is not a thing that we do at all. Yeah.”
Jack Clark May 9, 2024 ▶ 1:07:23 Anthropic's Co-Founder on AI Agents, General Intelligence, and Sentience — With Jack Clark
Assertion Supported
Moore: ChatGPT and Claude App Ecosystems Have Only 11% Overlap
“If you look at the app store that they have enabled on ChatGPT, ChatGPT and then the App Store that Anthropic has enabled on Claude, they each have more than 200 apps, but there's only 11% overlap.”
Olivia Moore Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 19:10 AI’s Unpopularity + Competing With ChatGPT — With Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Anthropic published a prompt to export ChatGPT memory into Claude
“Anthropic put a prompt that you could copy to ChatGPT to export your memory. Like I was saying, memory's not sticky. They built the prompt that we were talking about, and you drop it in ChatGPT, it prints out your memory, you paste the memory in Claude, and th…”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 27:36 AI Revenue Explodes, Dario’s Memo, McDonalds’ CEO’s Baby Burger Bite
Assertion Supported
Anthropic reports daily sign-ups quadrupled to over 1M per day
“Anthropix said daily sign-ups have quadrupled since the start of the year. On Thursday, Anthropix said more than one million people are now signing up every day.”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 49:17 AI Revenue Explodes, Dario’s Memo, McDonalds’ CEO’s Baby Burger Bite
Assertion Supported
Siegler: Claude reached number one in the App Store
“Claude is now the number one app in the app store, which is wild.”
M.G. Siegler Mar 4, 2026 ▶ 26:58 Dario’s Choice and Anthropic’s Future, Apple’s AI Devices, Netflix Loses WBD
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Claude mobile app time spent tripled between mid-2025 and January 2026
“In June 20, 25, so six, seven months ago, the average time spent on the mobile app of Claude was about 10 minutes. Today, in January 26, it's above 30 minutes. So, time spent per user on Anthropics Claude has Tripled in six months.”
Alex Kantrowitz Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 9:20 The Anthropic Rocketship, AI’s Spending Limits, SpaceX IPO
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Coding Is Claude's Top Use Case at 36%
“Coding is still number one use case at 36%. But educational tasks have surged from 9.3% to 12.4%, and scientific tasks are now six point, they're, they went from 6.3% to 7.2%.”
Alex Kantrowitz Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 33:09 Revealed: OpenAI Tells Us ChatGPT's Major Use Cases
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: SimilarWeb Data Shows Gemini at 10.9M and DeepSeek at 16.5M Daily Visits
“Google's Gemini web traffic grew to 10.9 million average daily visits worldwide in March. That's up seven, four, 7.4% month over month, while daily visits to Copilot, that's Microsoft's bot, Increased to 2.4 million, up 2.1% from February. SimilarWeb also says…”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 2, 2025 ▶ 19:44 OpenAI Raises $40 billion, Is AI a Letdown?, Musk Sells X to xAI
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