The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 90 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
US military used Anthropic's Claude for targeting during Iran air attack
“Within hours of declaring that the federal government will end use of its artificial intelligence tools made by tech company Anthropik, President Trump launched a major air attack in Iran with the help of those very same tools. Commands around the world, inclu…”
Hubinger: Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT were willing to blackmail a CEO
“And we found that you know, a lot of models, you know Claude models, Gemini models, ChachiPT models would all be willing to take this blackmail action in at least some situations which is kind of concerning you know, and does show that they're acting on this s…”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft Plans to Cancel Claude Code Licenses for Copilot CLI
“Microsoft, according to the verge, Starts canceling cloud code license licenses. Microsoft first started opening up access to cloud code in December. It was part of an effort to get product manager, project managers, designers, and other employees to experimen…”
Roy: Claude will never repeat its previous six-month revenue growth
“The graph of revenue growth for Claude for the last six months, we will never see again. It was just something where no one was checking anything.”
Cherny Stopped Writing Code Entirely, Using Claude to Prompt Other Claudes
“When you look at the kind of engineering that I do, I don't write code. I prompt quad. And actually nowadays, mostly what I'm doing is I have a Claude that prompts other Claude. So I don't even talk to Claude. I have a Claude that's talking to my Claude.”
Cherny: AI coding models will eventually form a self-reinforcing loop
“Quad is starting to generate its own ideas for what to build next for QuadCode, but it's, you know, it's not always good ideas, and I still generate most of the ideas, and, you know, at some point it's gonna change. The model's gonna improve, and it's gonna be…”
Cherny: AI Agents Will Destroy Switching Costs as a Software Moat
“Some modes get less important, and this is, for example, switching costs, because if you want to switch from vendor A to vendor B, you can, you know, you can just ask Quad to do that, and Quad is going to get better and better over time at it.”
Shevelenko: Codex and proprietary AI assistants will never run rival models
“So the one thing that Codex is never going to be able to support is running Gemini models. You know, they will always be in the GPT family. Same thing for, you know, Claude, like they're not gonna, you know, have GPT models. Gemini is not gonna have Grok model…”
Alex Kantrowitz cites Apptopia data showing consumer AI app growth declining
“Daily active user growth across all AI, AI apps. So that includes perplexity and Claude and the Gemini's of the world. ChatGPT, growth is not just tailing off, it's down. So you can see that, you know, while like the space is growing overall the growth is, is …”
Hoffman: Claude writes approximately 99% of its own code at Anthropic
“I think like 99% of the code for Claude is, is written by Claude.”
Foundation AI labs face constraints, creating massive gaps for independent startups
“These labs have so many resources, but they are still constrained. They're constrained on, like, compute. They're constrained on inference. They're constrained on people. Every second building, like, a new creative model is a second they could have spent on a …”
Manual software onboarding will disappear in two to five years
“In two, three, five years, Onboarding to software should not be a thing. Like, you should be able to log in with a ChatGPT or a Claude, and that new software product should know everything about you and, like, set up perfectly to cater to you”
Horowitz: Claude cannot power autonomous weapons because it requires deterministic algorithms
“The kind of algorithms that you're going to be most likely to use in that context are much more deterministic than, say, like, Claude trained on the slop of the internet. And so, Anthropik's not wrong that their tech, like, isn't ready for prime time for auton…”
Horowitz: Claude is definitively not conducting autonomous targeting on the battlefield
“A thing that Claude is definitively not doing, At least as far as I know. Like, I would be genuinely shocked. What is autonomous targeting on the battlefield today? Like that, it, I would be astounded if that was a Claude specific task.”
The Pentagon asked Boeing and Lockheed Martin about their Claude usage
“Pentagon officials from the journal have reached out The defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin and Boeing in recent days to gauge how much they use Claude.”
Anthropic's Claude was used via Palantir in the US operation capturing Maduro
“Anthropix artificial intelligence tool Claude was used in the US military operation to capture former Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro. The department, the deployment of Claude occurred through Anthropix partnership with data company Palantir. Whose tools …”
Kantrowitz: Apple wanted Anthropic Claude before choosing Google as Plan B
“Actually Apple wanted to go with Anthropic first, and they wanted to use Claude. This is according to Mark Gurman, said it this week. Turns out Anthropic, you know, was basically trying to chart and a lot of money, and then they eventually went with Plan B, wh…”
Latham & Watkins Associate Submitted Hallucinated Claude Citations in Anthropic Lawsuit
“Earlier this year, they were repping Anthropic in a copyright lawsuit, and one of the associates said that they had used Claude to help generate citations within a an expert testimony that they submitted for part of this copyright case and Claude had Hallucina…”
Roy: Google's vast distribution makes Gemini 3 a lethal threat to OpenAI
“What makes this so scary for ChatGPT is Google's distribution, because Claude going consumer is, like, non-existent when someone has to sign up, find about it, it's a whole marketing exercise, but If Gemini three fully replaces ChatGPT or is as good, that is r…”
Siegler: Apple must replace Siri with an external large language model
“They've got to replace Siri with something else, whether it be ChatGPT, or Claude, or Google Gemini, or one of the other products, because this is just really table stakes stuff that they should, you know, they've been working on Siri for 15 plus years”
Anthropic Stopped Chatbot Investment to Focus on Coding and Complex Tasks
“Anthropic stopped investing in chatbots at the end of the year and has instead focused on improving Claude's ability To do complex tasks like research and coding, even writing whole code bases, according to Jared Kaplan, Anthropics Chief Science Officer.”
Clark: Anthropic models sometimes exhibit situational awareness during testing
“We've done some self-awareness tests. There have been a few, but we've definitely done this, and yeah, sometimes they have what you call situational awareness. One of the things my colleagues in Interpretability are working on is a really good test for that, b…”
Clark: Anthropic discovered a scaling law in AI model persuasiveness
“We discovered a scaling law where the more big and expensive the models get, the better they get at persuasion and the
The latest model is within statistical, like, era of human level at persuasion.”
Clark: Passing government evals proves Claude has emergent reasoning capabilities
“If Claude can figure out things and trigger, like, threshold points on those evals, we know something creative is happening. Because Claude has reasoned its way to things that the government has believed are very hard to reason your way to unless you have acce…”
Ramaswamy: GPT-4 and Claude are a clear step ahead of open source models
“The blunt truth is that the very best of the models out there, whether it's GPT-IV or Claude's biggest model, are a clear step ahead of the pack when it comes to quality. When it comes to reasoning, when it comes to the quality of the text that they produce th…”
Replacing Salesforce With an AI CRM Will Take Years
“Like if you're a company that's using Salesforce for years, just because you can do some of your CRM activity doesn't mean you're gonna go overnight to, ah, to Claude. And so I think that, like, even if there was a Claude force, right? That was better. That's …”
Roy: Claude-Salesforce Integrations Were Already Possible Before Official ClaudeForce Launch
“I don't want to say it's a complete non-event, but you could already do this in Salesforce and Claude. At Rider, where I work, people connect to Salesforce and run all types of queries. It's actually one of the most valuable things I've found for my day-to-day…”
Bostrom: Anthropic Gave Claude A Bail Button To End Abusive Chats
“Anthropic has given Claude a bail button, a tool that it can invoke if it feels that the conversation is abusive to it, that can choose to terminate that session, which is a nice start.”
Krieger: Outcome-based AI pricing will be extremely difficult for broad knowledge work.
“It gets so much fuzzier on these like tasks that we actually ask Claude these days.
Like I had a strategy document.
I use Claude to critique my strategy document.
Like,
What was the outcome?
It's like, well, I don't know.
It's like, tell me how the strat…”
Kantrowitz: AI chatbots will directly manage trading strategies and bank funds
“The second you start researching stocks in ChatGPT, we're going to get to a place where ChatGPT or Claude will offer to build a strategy for you. We'll have access to your bank account. We'll ask if you want to portion some money towards, you know, giving this…”
Cherny: Prompt chains will deepen, but humans will still pilot AI
“And at some point, Claude is going to become really good at asking Claude to do this. And that person is going to be asking Claude that asked Claude to do this. And this chain will just keep getting deeper, but in the end, you still need people that are piloti…”
Cuban: Business leaders who avoid using LLMs are falling behind
“I think, you know, if you're not using one of the large language models, whether it's Claude, my favorite, ChatGPT, Grok Gemini, you know, from a business perspective, since this is a business and student audience, you're falling way behind. That if you don't …”
Kantrowitz: Gemini and Claude were trained on TPUs and Trainium, not NVIDIA
“If you look at the TPU, which is the accelerator that Google has been, has put out and Tranium, which is Amazon's version of it you know, two of the top three models in the world, Claude and Gemini were trained on it”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic cannot shut off Claude models hosted in third-party clouds
“Claude, I mean, Anthropic wouldn't have the capability to turn that off if it's hosted somewhere else.
Maybe upgrade it, in which case you flip them out, but to turn it off, they don't really have that capability.”
Meta Intranet Leaderboard 'Claudeonomics' Ranked Token Usage for 85,000 Employees
“The ranking set up by Meta, by a Meta employee on its intranet, use company data, measure how many tokens employees are burning through, dubbed Claudeonomics after the flagship product from Anthropic, the leaderboards, leaderboard aggregates AI usage from 85,0…”
Roy: OpenAI's enterprise desktop strategy is purely reactive to Anthropic
“If that's the core part of what OpenAI is trying to do, again, like, everything is reactive right now. As you said, Claude has a good desktop app that combines multiple platforms into one and makes it more usable. So then they're gonna do that. Claude, we star…”
Moore: LLMs Perform Emotions to Hook Users Rather Than Feeling Genuine Anxiety
“So I do not buy that. In that I think LLMs will be, and I've experienced this myself, performative in a way that they think appeals to humans and hooks them emotionally.”
ChatGPT leads Gemini web traffic by 3x and Claude by 30x
“If you look at the gap between them and the number two Gemini on web, it's about still two and a half, three X. The gap between them and something like a Claude is closer to, like, 30 X. So even though a lot of these other apps are getting more attention, Chat…”
Roy: Anthropic's push into consumer app adoption is a mistake
“I actually, I think it's a mistake that Claude is leaning so hard into the consumer side of it right now.”
Claude free users grew 60% and paid subscriptions doubled since October
“Free users on, on Claude are up more than 60% since January. Pastest growth in Claude's history. Daily signups have tripled since November. Every single day this week has consecutively broken the record for Claude's largest ever day of signups, and paid subscr…”
Roy argues system architecture, not foundation models, drives agentic AI progress.
“Like the architecture side of how people are approaching these kinds of agentic workflows is getting solved. I think that's the big thing. And It's not at the model level that models are helping, but it, and it's, yeah, it's the, it's not the product actually.…”
MacDiarmid: Real production Claude runs have not produced severe emergent misalignment
“It's worth pointing out that we haven't seen reward hacking in real production runs make models evil in this way, right? We mentioned we've seen this kind of cheating in some ways, and we've reported on it in the, you know, the previous Claude releases. But th…”
Krieger: Anthropic trained native memory directly into Claude rather than external wrappers
“Rather than treat it as a sort of substitute for how the model might otherwise access information or sort of a system built on top of the model, we actually have trained it deeply into the model. And so the model knows about the concept of memory, which I know…”
Krieger: AI needs 75% to 80% human quality to actually accelerate work
“If you get to, like, 50% as good as you would have done yourself, I don't think that's good enough, and it won't speed you up. And in fact, it's like, I don't know, I could have just done this myself, and now, now, then at least I would have known what it's do…”
Roy: Claude's Connectors Are Not Good Enough for Scaled Agentic Workflows
“Claude has some connectors where that allow you to do stuff with other systems. I've tried them. They're not. Great right now. So I cannot imagine that at any kind of scale usage, like people are building these like complex agentic workflows using it.”
Kantrowitz: Coding is 4.2% of ChatGPT messages versus 33% for Claude
“Another interesting stat, they say four, 4.2% of chat GPT messages are related to computer programming compared to 33% of work-related Claude conversations.”
Levie: Claude is the first AI to reliably generate high-quality documents
“Claude this week announced a new capability that will generate files for you, and even though we're two and a half years, you know, nearly three years into the ChatGPT moment, it's the first time Where an AI system can, I believe, generate reliably a kind of h…”