The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Iranian strikes disabled AWS availability zones in Bahrain and Dubai
“Iran has hit enough sites in Bahrain and Dubai that belong to Amazon that there are a couple of availability zones in those regions that are hard down, according to some internal communication that I was able to see, and that they're going to be unavailable fo…”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 35:57 OpenAI's TBPN Mistake, SpaceX’s $2 Trillion IPO?, Iran Disables Amazon Infrastructure
Assertion Supported
Garman: AWS automated reasoning mathematically eliminates AI hallucinations in bounded domains
“So by that, by this kind of mechanism, you're, like, systematically able to actually mathematically prove that you got the right answer coming out of this and completely eliminate hallucinations for that area, right? It doesn't mean that we've eliminated hallu…”
Matt Garman Dec 5, 2024 ▶ 27:13 AWS CEO Matt Garman on Amazon's Big AI Chips Bet, Working With OpenAI, and Nuclear Energy
Assertion Supported
Garman: Trainium 2 Delivers 30% to 40% Better Price-Performance Than GPUs
“We see 30 to 40% price performance games versus our instances that are GPU powered today.”
Matt Garman Dec 5, 2024 ▶ 10:38 AWS CEO Matt Garman on Amazon's Big AI Chips Bet, Working With OpenAI, and Nuclear Energy
Assertion Supported
Siegler: OpenAI owes Microsoft rev share even on AWS and Google
“While Microsoft no longer has to pay revenue share back to open AI still has to pay it to Microsoft and they have to pay it even when they're using AWS or potentially Google in the future.”
M.G. Siegler May 5, 2026 ▶ 40:22 Did Apple Get AI Spending Right?, Microsoft & OpenAI’s New Reality, Where’s Stargate?
Assertion Supported
OpenAI expands its AWS agreement by $100 billion over eight years
“OpenAI said it's expanding its existing thirty-eight billion dollar agreement with Amazon Web Services by one hundred billion over the next year, eight years.”
Alex Kantrowitz Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 29:08 Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Bloodbath at Block, The Citrini Selloff
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: AWS grew 24% while Amazon guided to $200B CapEx
“AWS went up 24% in the fourth quarter, which is kind of astounding. But they said they were gonna spend two hundred billion dollars in CapEx. A 60% increase from last year and far above Wall Street expectations, obviously.”
Alex Kantrowitz Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 55:43 Software In Shambles, OpenAI vs. Anthropic Super Brawl, Amazon’s Struggles
Assertion Supported
Sivasubramanian: Trainium2 offers 4x faster training and 2x energy efficiency
“AWS actually, for instance, we have invested in technologies such as Trinium-II chips, which actually can deliver up to four X faster training. And, ah, also it is while improving energy efficiency up to two times, as an example.”
Swami Sivasubramanian May 1, 2024 ▶ 3:49 AWS VP of AI and Data Swami Sivasubramanian — GenAI's Growth Potential
Assertion Supported
Garman: Nvidia Blackwell delivers about 2.5x compute performance of H100
“I think we were expecting about two and a half times the compute performance out of the Blackwell chip that you get out of an H-one hundred”
Matt Garman Dec 5, 2024 ▶ 18:02 AWS CEO Matt Garman on Amazon's Big AI Chips Bet, Working With OpenAI, and Nuclear Energy
Assertion Supported
Wood: AI Startup NinjaTech Has Hundreds of Thousands of Monthly Active Users
“I think Ninja Tech is seeing, you know, remarkable growth. They have hundreds of thousands of monthly active users.”
Matt Wood Jul 10, 2024 ▶ 24:04 Amazon's Longterm AI Vision — With AWS VP Matt Wood
Assertion Supported
Wood: AWS AI and Machine Learning Business Exceeds Multibillion-Dollar ARR
“Bedrock, which is the service that we make available to customers to build generative AI applications. That's one of our fastest growing services ever. And all up, AI machine learning at AWS is already a multi-billion dollar business. In terms of ARR.”
Matt Wood Jul 10, 2024 ▶ 5:52 Amazon's Longterm AI Vision — With AWS VP Matt Wood
Prediction Held up
Wood: Most enterprises will fine-tune existing models rather than build foundation models
“There isn't one model to kind of rule them all. Each different model has, you know, different sweet spots, and it's my expectation that most customers will invest in not building the foundation models, but will invest in fine tuning and improving those individ…”
Matt Wood Jul 10, 2024 ▶ 20:35 Amazon's Longterm AI Vision — With AWS VP Matt Wood
Assertion Supported
Sivasubramanian: Tens of thousands of companies use Amazon Bedrock
“Bedrock, which is used by tens of thousands of companies already are with things like Amazon Q and so forth.”
Swami Sivasubramanian May 1, 2024 ▶ 39:37 AWS VP of AI and Data Swami Sivasubramanian — GenAI's Growth Potential
Assertion Supported
Wood: Amazon Titan trained on public web data and licensed datasets
“Titan was trained on publicly available data. And. That's a very squishy phrase. It's very precise. Okay. And data which proprietary data that we had licensed specifically for the purpose of training.”
Matt Wood Aug 3, 2023 ▶ 41:41 Amazon Reveals Its AI Master Plan — With Matt Wood
Assertion Supported
AWS revenue grew 28 percent after years of slower growth
“AWS, by the way, stuck in the 17, 18% growth rate range for the past few years grew 28%.”
Alex Kantrowitz May 4, 2026 ▶ 41:16 OpenAI’s User Growth Miss, Musk vs. Altman In Court, Prediction Market Ban
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