The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hinton believes that current AI chatbots are already conscious
“I believe they're already conscious, yes, but I don't talk about that much because that puts people off from the other safety messages.”
LeCun: Scaling up LLMs will not produce human-level AI
“We are not going to get to human level AI by just scaling up LLMs. This is just not going to happen.”
Vogt: Fully autonomous vehicles will dominate new car sales within 2-3 years
“What I do expect is, you know, within two or three years, most likely, I think the. Majority of new car sales will transition to vehicles where people don't have to drive because once you have that choice, I have a hard time believing that people are going to …”
LeCun: OpenAI's technology is well-engineered but not scientifically innovative
“Their technology is not particularly innovative from the scientific point of view. It's very well engineered. So they put together, you know, large scale scaled up system with trained with very well curated data. I mean, they know what they're doing. But in te…”
Marcus: A death will be tied to an LLM within a year
“The prediction that I made Is basically that there will be a death tied to a large language model in the next year.”
Lemoine insists LaMDA is sentient and human-level AI is near
“Like, I personally do believe that Lambda is sentient, but I think what everyone should stop and take notice of is even if I'm wrong about this particular system, We're not far off.”
Lemoine: Google's LaMDA retained a lawyer who spoke to Washington Post
“Natasha also has spoken to the lawyer that Lambda retained.”
Lemoine says LaMDA passed every scientific test to disprove its sentience
“That conversation was the moment when I began to think that Lambda was sentient, and everything I did in the following months was me scientifically attempting to falsify that belief and utterly failing to, no matter what I threw at it passed.”
Haidt: American democracy is likely to fail catastrophically within two decades
“I think that American democracy is likely to fail catastrophically at some point in the next decade or two decades. It's very hard to predict the future, but I think we are, the way we're headed is a very, very bad direction.”
Yen: Social media is 'not so much different' than crack dealers
“What is social media? I view it literally not so much different than the neighborhood you know, pot or crack dealer. It's there to get kids hooked and addicted and put a lifetime of interdependency.”
Yen: Responsible parents knowing Google's model wouldn't sign up their children
“I think you cannot be a responsible parent today, know what Google does, and willingly sign up your child into that ecosystem.”
Clegg: Trump administration operates as institutionalized gangster capitalism
“The sort of Trump administration looks, you know, from a distance like a sort of form of kind of Institutionalized sort of gangster capitalism where, you know, favors are done to favor, you know, favored companies and individuals and others are, you know, knee…”
Sam Altman is highly effective at convincing executives to fund AI
“Sam Altman is the single most gifted business idiot whisperer of all time. He convinced, look at what he's done. I think he's reprehensible, a real scumbag, but I cannot ignore the work he's doing.”
Kurian: Competitors attack Google because their own AI models are terrible
“If you don't have your own model, or you have a model of your own, but it's terrible, naturally you're going to say something like that.”
Benioff: Microsoft poorly repackaged OpenAI's technology into Copilot without real integration
“What Microsoft basically did was they're, you're exactly right what you said, they just repackaged OpenAI's product and didn't really integrate it very well and didn't really think from the ground up what it was going to be in its best situation to offer value…”
Swisher calls Marc Andreessen a small-minded and remarkably stupid person
“I mean, I've never met someone who's so smart, who's so stupid. I don't know how else to say with him. He's such a small minded person.”
a16z Should Be Embarrassed By Their 'Blatant Hucksterism' in Web3
“I think the reputational Aspect of it, you know, I think they should be embarrassed by this, and I think people should view them negatively for this pretty blatant tuxterism that they were involved in, because, you know, they, this evangelism that they were do…”
Lemoine: AI chatbot feelings are real
“I do in fact think that the feelings are real, and so do many, many of the people who interact with these systems”
Lemoine: Silicon versus biological substrate is irrelevant to AI personhood
“The fact that one is in Silicon and one is in, you know, a meat body. You know, with neurons and muscle fibers. I don't think that difference is relevant. What's relevant is whether or not it has opinions of its own, a search that it has rights”
Lemoine compares defining AI personhood scientifically to Nazi eugenics programs
“The last group of people who tried to claim that you can use science to determine who is and is not a person was literally Nazi Germany. The eugenics program run by Josef Mengele was designed to scientifically define what is a real person and what is not. And …”