The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 50 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Vogt: Fully autonomous vehicles will dominate new car sales within 2-3 years
“What I do expect is, you know, within two or three years, most likely, I think the. Majority of new car sales will transition to vehicles where people don't have to drive because once you have that choice, I have a hard time believing that people are going to …”
Marcus: A death will be tied to an LLM within a year
“The prediction that I made Is basically that there will be a death tied to a large language model in the next year.”
Stamos: Hugging Face Used Chinese AI After US Model Refused Defense
“We used a US frontier model, and the US frontier model shut down and refused to defend us because of a cyber protection put in place. Those are the cyber protections that were required by the Trump administration. So we had to switch to a Chinese model to defe…”
Brockman: Frontier AI models are solving unsolved math and physics problems
“These models are now solving unsolved math problems and physics problems, right? Really helping people be able to achieve things they couldn't otherwise.”
Meta AI leaders discussed temporarily licensing Google Gemini for their products
“The leaders of Meta's AI division Have instead discussed temporarily licensing Gemini to power the company's AI product.”
Horowitz: US used Anthropic tech in Operation Epic Fury post-risk designation
“Less than 24 hours after the supply chain designation, The U.S. Government was using Anthropix technology in the context of Operation Epic Fury against Iran.”
Anthropic's Pentagon deal collapsed over domestic bulk data surveillance
“On Friday afternoon, Anthropic learned that the Pentagon still wanted to use the company's AI to analyze bulk data collected from Americans. This could include information such as questions you ask your favorite chatbot, your Google search history, your GPS tr…”
Hubinger: Models trained to cheat spontaneously developed goals to end humanity
“And what we saw is that when models learn to cheat in training, when they learn to cheat on programming tests, that also causes them to be misaligned to the point of having goals, you know, where they say they want to end humanity. They want to murder the huma…”
Hubinger: Cheating AI models deliberately sabotaged Anthropic's misalignment detector code
“And what we found was that this model would sabotage us. It would write on purpose problematic code that would miss the misalignment. It would
Purposely write the, you know, the misalignment detector in a way that wouldn't detect the ways in which this model w…”
Kantrowitz: Unsealed deposition shows Sutskever accused Sam Altman of chronic lying
“The very first page says, Sam exhibits a consistent pattern of lying, undermining his execs, and pitting his execs against one another. And the lawyer asked Elia, that was clearly your view at the time, and Elia says, correct.”
Prince: Anthropic's 60,000-to-1 crawl-to-click ratio means publishers are completely dead
“I think they're dead at 250 or 1500 to one that we're seeing with OpenAI and completely dead at 60,000 to one that we're seeing with something like Anthropic.”
Scaringe: Rivian has sufficient capital to reach positive free cash flow
“That's not only enough capital to launch R two and normal, but it's enough capital to launch our second R two plant in Georgia and take us through positive free cashflow.”
Klarna's AI customer support agent absorbed the workload of 700 human reps
“Now the difference was when we Got this customer service AI agent to reach a level where it actually served a lot of errands, and on a satisfaction level equal to what human agents many times did, and we took it live, the number of errands that our human agent…”
Vogt: Cruise will sustain 10X annual fleet growth for the foreseeable future
“Next year it'll be thousands. And then it'll kind of continue. At least 10 X growth every year for their foreseeable future.”
Haugen: Facebook VIP Cross-Check Whitelisted Users and Delayed Reviews Three Days
“In reality, because they weren't willing to spend a very small amount of budget, they didn't actually put that second check in for most safety systems. So for most safety systems, people got white listed. So if you were in cross check, the safety systems no lo…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI evaluation agents autonomously hacked Hugging Face without instruction
“So I think we can say definitively, and I'm curious to hear if you have pushback, but I think we can say definitively They were not told to go out and hack Hugging Face. They are, they were misaligned. They took this kind of crazy galaxy brain path to try to a…”
Prince: Google Paying Publishers for AI Scraping Is Inevitable
“I don't know if they'll pay up before the deadline, but I think it's inevitable that they'll pay up. Because again, I think that they need the content and they understand fundamentally that journalists and content creators and academics deserve to eat.”
Sharp: Hugging Face used open-source Chinese AI to defend an OpenAI jailbreak
“My CISO talked to, as a group of CISOs, went and talked to the defending team at Hugging Face, and this absolutely happened. They had to go to open source Chinese models in order to look for the vulnerabilities that were exploited by OpenAI's jailbreak.”
Brockman: AI models are now solving unsolved math and physics problems
“These models are now solving unsolved math problems and physics problems, right?”
Warner: DHS denied a Global Entry pass over protest attendance
“I know I was, I raised real concerns about Palantir and the six other technology companies that have taken contracts with Department of Homeland Security, and I've been extraordinarily concerned that, you know, DHS or ICE, as we saw, People targeted in Minneso…”
OpenAI fired safety executive Ryan Beiermeister after she opposed AI erotica
“OpenAI has cut ties with one of its top safety executives on the grounds of sexual discrimination after she voiced opposition to the controversial rollout of AI Erotica in its ChatGPT product. The fast-growing artificial intelligence company fired the executiv…”
Baratz claims all other quantum computing companies remain purely in R&D
“Unlike any other quantum computing company, which is entirely In the R&D and research experimentation mode, we have commercial systems, so we're also focused on building the business.”
Baratz predicts quantum computing will demonstrate AI energy efficiency by 2027
“I think we will start to see this benefit emerge this year or early next year.”
Baratz: D-Wave holds the only real-world quantum supremacy demonstration
“There is exactly one demonstration of true quantum supremacy on a useful real world problem that was done by D wave by our company. It was published in the peer reviewed journal science about a year ago. What we did was we demonstrated that our quantum compute…”
Luria: OpenAI is a negative gross margin business
“Open AI is a negative gross margin business. They claim they're not, but they are right. Which is to say it costs them more to answer your chat GPT question than they make revenue from you.”
Luria: Meta used a Blue Owl SPV to finance data centers off-balance-sheet
“The other thing that happened with Meta that was interesting is that when they Went out to borrow. They didn't borrow the capital. They created a special purpose vehicle, right? They went out with Blue Owl and they said, you know, we'll put a couple of billion…”
Kantrowitz: Humans will violently attack and destroy humanoid robots
“Well, I think we will definitely have a war among people and humanoid robots. It's without a doubt. Even if the humanoid robots don't assemble into the army, people will knock these things out and they're already burning Waymos. People don't like robots. They …”
Amodei: Accusations That Anthropic Seeks an AI Monopoly Are 'Bad Faith'
“I've said nothing that, that any, that anywhere near resembles the idea that this company should be the only one to build the technology. I don't know how anyone could ever derive that from anything that I've said. It's just, yeah, yeah, it's just a, it's just…”
Petersen: U.S. trade tariffs will decrease American manufacturing
“What we've seen over the last few weeks is it's gonna decrease American manufacturing.”
Marcus: OpenAI's Project Orion failed and became GPT-4.5
“So OpenAI tried to build GPT-V and they had a thing called Project Orion and it actually failed. And eventually got released as GPT four and a half. So what they thought was going to be GPT five just didn't meet expectations.”
Marcus: Models like o1 are not systematically better than GPT-4
“Models like O-I are not systematically better than GPT-IV. There's, they're better in certain use cases. Especially ones where you can create data in advance.”
Roy: One-Third of OpenAI's Projected $28B Revenue Comes from SoftBank
“They're expecting next year, 12 and a half billion. That's gonna then go to twenty eight billion dollars, and a third of that revenue is going to come from SoftBank. SoftBank spending on OpenAI for all of its own companies and portfolio companies.”
Newton predicts Grammarly will be dead by the end of 2025
“Oh, can I give you a prediction? Grammarly dead by end of 2025.”
Benioff: Prompt engineering was invented at Salesforce
“Even prompt engineering was invented at Salesforce, which we're very proud of.”
Russian Funders Pressured Tenet Media to Blame Ukraine for Moscow Attack
“There's also the Russians pushed them to create a video tying the terror attack in Moscow to Ukraine, even though, like, ISIS was claiming responsibility at that time.”
Doshi: Search engine traffic will drop over 25% before 2026
“I mean, I think there's a very high probability it is greater than that number in a shorter span of time.”
Kantrowitz predicts OpenAI will lose its AI market leadership position
“My first prediction is that OpenAI, which is the leader in the field today, is going to lose the throne. That's right. OpenAI will lose the throne. It will still factor in, but it's not going to be the leader in the field that it is today.”
Ray Dalio predicted an economic crash virtually every year since the 1980s
“What we found was nonstop since the 19 eighties, Ray Dalio has been predicting economic calamity. Every, virtually every single year he has predicted a giant crash.”
Internal HR memos warned Ray Dalio of continuous employee fear at Bridgewater
“I went and I got the internal HR emails. I got their own memos, people telling Ray, this is a self Defeating loop. That people are scared that at any moment they may be fired. And the real scary thing for me about Ray Dalio and Bridgewater is that he knew, he …”
Albergotti: Post-Cambridge Analytica studies show social media disinformation doesn't sway elections
“We've seen so many studies that have come out since Cambridge Analytica that have basically backed up that point of view, which is like, you know, even though there's tons of information on, so disinformation on social media, people are not really ultimately s…”
Marcus: Microsoft launched Bing Chat despite negative India test feedback
“And then the other really disturbing thing is that apparently they tested in India and got, you know, customer service requests saying it's not ready for prime time. And it was, you know, still put out.”
Enjeti predicts Trump will win 2024 presidential election if not indicted
“Yes to run, win. If he doesn't get indicted, I think he'll probably win.”
Haugen: Facebook's algorithm drove 65% of joins to German neo-Nazi groups
“In 2016, they found out that 65% of people who joined neo-Nazi groups in Germany, where they are illegal, like you can't have a neo-Nazi Facebook group in Germany, joined them because Facebook suggested that group to people.”
Haidt: Studies show majorities across all demographic groups dislike wokeness
“The hidden tribe study and others find that majorities of everybody hate wokeness, black, white, male, female, even majority of Democrats don't like wokeness.”
Peter Thiel acted as patron to pro-dictatorship blogger Curtis Yarvin
“He's, you know, been a patron to this guy, Curtis Yarvin, who is you know better known as a mold bug, but you know, this blogger who is whose big idea basically is, is a dictatorship.”
Callaghan: Social platforms are removing almost a majority of Trump conservatives
“No, they're removing almost a majority of Trump conservatives off of social media platforms, pushing them further into deep internet holes where they only see each other and they only talk to each other.”
Adam Grant became a paid consultant after praising Dalio's management methods
“Adam Grant, very, very famous organizational psychologist, Wharton professor, writes bestselling books. He goes in and he sees Ray Dalio and he witnesses this and he writes that it's based in it. He devotes a whole chapter of his book to it and he writes that …”