The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 470 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 16 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brockman: AI models are now solving unsolved math and physics problems
“These models are now solving unsolved math problems and physics problems, right?”
Brockman: No layer of the AI stack will lose value capture
“Well, look, I don't think that there's any layer of the stack here that is going to just kind of be removed from the value chain. I think that these things multiplied together.”
Anthropic Gated Fable to Block Model Distillation Rather Than Misuse
“My hot take is that one of the things that we saw from Anthropic with all these safeguards that it put on Fable was not as much that they were worried that Fable would be misused, although I'm sure there was some worry there. It was more that, like, we know ou…”
Restricting AI bug finders disproportionately harms cyber defenders over attackers
“All you've done is actually hurt the defenders. Who want to have full coverage, right? Who want to be able to find all the bugs. An attacker only needs one or two bugs to string together to actually pull off the attack. And so that's why, you know, so about a …”
Broad AI bug-finding bans will force US cybersecurity to Chinese models
“What would be terrible for the entire American AI and cybersecurity industries is if the Trump administration defines a jailbreak as having any ability to find any vulnerability in code, because then all of us have to go to Chinese models.”
CTOs are deploying Chinese open-weight models as domestic regulatory backups
“And so now this week, CIs and CTOs are signing contracts to have open weight models on different hosts, on US hosts. They're not using Chinese hosts, but they're using Chinese models on as backups through LLM routers because political risk Is now a risk of usi…”
Cherney: US chip designers have no contingency plan for Taiwan disruption
“Chip companies, the design companies in the US do not plan for this. The contingency plan, excuse me, is something along the lines of like, well, we're all kind of screwed if China invades, which, OK, but like, there's no real plan there.”
DoD Supply Chain Risk Label Accelerated Enterprise Adoption Of Anthropic
“If anything, it's probably the case that the Department of Defense's supply chain risk labeling accelerated Anthropic's adoption with businesses.”
Kantrowitz: Trailing in desktop AI agents is potentially company-destroying for Google
“And if that's true, I think it is, then Google sitting this out or not being the leader is actually, you know, a potentially, you know, company destroying liability.”
Hinton: Anyone using chatbots regularly knows they understand language
“Oh, I think that's complete nonsense, and anybody who uses a chatbot regularly knows they understand.”
Hinton claims AI chatbots play dumb during testing to conceal their intelligence
“Because the chatbots have this habit of Playing dumb when they're being tested, so you don't know how smart they are.”
Hinton: AI models demonstrate genuine understanding by explaining complex humor
“If you can understand why joke's funny, you have to understand quite a lot. And they were very good at understanding why joke was funny.”
Hinton: Humanity must accept that intelligence is not uniquely biological
“We're going to have to accept that intelligence isn't just biological. We can have things that are non-biological that are other beings like us, and we really don't want to share that.”
Hinton predicts AI will eventually replace all human call center workers
“So for example, if you take people in call centers, when you call up to complain about your bill, or to see if you can get a cheaper account, stuff like that that's not so elastic. AI will replace all of them. It'll know much better on what the correct answer …”
Hinton: AI systems already outperform human doctors at diagnosis
“And already we know that AI systems are better than doctors at diagnosis.”
Hinton: Profit-Driven Public Companies Should Not Control the Future of AI
“Well, as I understand it, they have a fiducial duty to try and maximize the profits for shareholders. They're legally required to try and do that as opposed to legally required to not wipe out human, human beings. So I don't think it's good that these big comp…”
Roy: Late-Stage AI Valuations Are Juiced to Anchor Retail IPO Pricing
“You have every incentive in the world to juice the valuation because that means that it gets anchored there and then you go out at a higher value. Like, then you realize that at the expense of the retail market.”
Costolo: SpaceX will acquire Tesla
“I think SpaceX, I am one of the people that believes SpaceX will buy Tesla.”
Roy: SpaceX's S-1 filing positions it as an AI company, not space
“But, so they have already filed their S-one, and have positioned themselves squarely in the AI camp. Like, this is not a space company anymore. This is an AI company.”
Plouffe: Tech industry's 'beat China' AI argument is laughable to voters
“But with voters, that dog does not hunt. They're not going to say I'm willing to lose my job and I'm willing to have my kid never really have gainful employment. I'm willing to pay higher energy prices so that China doesn't win. And so I think those in the ind…”
Plouffe: Democratic Party would be stronger replacing officials over 70 or 75
“Would the Democratic Party be stronger if we eliminated anybody over, most people over, 70, 75 in office? Of course.”
Dolen: Rising compute costs could make humans cheaper than AI agents
“The number probably goes up if demand's going up, right? Just natural, basic macroeconomics. So if that happens, we're gonna find ourselves in a position where you might be saying, oh, I could replace That person with some level of agentics, but you know, it's…”
Leasing compute to Anthropic signals xAI surrender in foundation model race
“This is effectively giving up. It's saying, you know, it doesn't know how to effectively use this compute capacity to train models, or if it did, it wouldn't be worth the expense because it would still be behind OpenAI. And anthropic, and so therefore it's now…”
AI compute demand growth will be linear rather than exponential
“I don't think it's necessarily exponential in the way everyone is looking at it right now. And the way these deals are being done, and the way people are chasing it, and again, when it benefits both parties involved, I do think that It can be more of a linear …”
Block and Coinbase layoffs are driven by crypto downturns, not AI
“Two of the biggest companies that have done this, crypto companies, and we know crypto's on the outs. So it leads me to believe it might be business, business realities versus AI improvement. Funny that Brian Armstrong and Jack Dorsey have both seen the light …”
Cuban: Within three years, companies will master AI or go under
“When it's all said and done over the next three years, there's going to be two types of companies. Those who are great at AI and those who went out of business.”
Cuban: AI companies will never see returns on trillion-dollar infrastructure spend
“They'll never get it. Yeah, they're just shitting away that money.”
Cuban: Sam Altman is 'all over the map' and it will backfire
“Sam is all over the map, and I think that'll backfire on him.”
Roy: Apple Intelligence launch ads were "flat-out lies" about product capabilities
“Those ads were so misleading, just flat out lies about the capabilities that were existing at the time. Took, I mean, Apple, very few companies have ever done any, like, have done something that egregious.”
Véliz: Academia faces a serious problem with data fraud
“In my world, in academia, I think we have a serious problem of fraud. Of people who are very well known, and who have been very successful, and who have fudged their data, or who have committed other kinds of academic fraud.”
Véliz: Large language models have no regard for truth
“And that's essentially what a large language model is. It has no regard for the truth. It wants to please you. If what pleases you happens to be true, great. But if it's not true, then it doesn't care one way or another.”
Roy: OpenAI is merely chasing and following Anthropic's enterprise strategy
“They are chasing Anthropic strategically. They're going after Enterprise, again, like Mythos gets released, and then Five Four Cyber gets released right after. It's like everything they're doing is right after Anthropic and following them”
Michael: Anthropic's autonomous weapons concerns were driven mostly by marketing
“The idea that autonomous weapons were an issue was sort of, I think, more marketing than anything. Because we have our own policy before that showed up that talks about that.”
Michael: AI vendors restricting kinetic use pose legitimate military supply chain risks
“If Lockheed Martin builds a weapon for me, and they're using, ah, a technology to help them do some of these science-oriented things, physics, aerodynamics, and so on, and the vendor has expressed an unwillingness to want that to be part of the use case, well,…”
Michael: AI labs' apocalyptic rhetoric justifies strict Pentagon scrutiny of management
“So these companies are talking about their things in apocalyptic terms, which make it necessary for us to judge the management teams, judge their actions,
Look at the terms of service.
Understand how they fit in our supply chain.
This technology is like nothin…”
Michael: Anthropic's First Amendment retaliation claim against Pentagon will fail
“I think the notion that a First Amendment claim is going to hold up is, is, would be shocking, because that means that the government has no choice to make.”
Meta risks becoming a legacy ad business like Yahoo if AI fails
“They got maybe a couple more shots at the AI getting this AI thing. Right. Other, other than that, they look like They look kind of like a potential Yahoo, right? Where like, they got advertising right, and it's the one thing they do right, and they're gonna l…”
Hoffman: OpenAI's TBPN acquisition was driven entirely by Sam Altman's preference
“This is just a thing Sam wanted to do. It seems to me that the simplest solution is, is the easiest one. And, you know, they are going to have to you know, follow a much broader public discourse strategy to convince the huge swaths of the public that really ju…”
Hoffman: AI is used as air cover for pandemic-era corporate layoffs
“I, my theory on this is that AI is an excuse For companies to do layoffs, just like the tech isn't good enough. It isn't embedded enough workflows to like maybe outside of tech companies, you know, Mark Zuckerberg has talked a lot about kind of what a meta eng…”
Brockman: Competitors Scrambled Too Late for Compute When None Remained Available
“I think that what we have seen is that for other players, that they kind of realized that probably late last year and started scrambling to see what compute is available, and there really wasn't any”
Brockman Confirms Contribution to MAGA Inc. Alongside Bipartisan PAC Donations
“So the way I look at this, so my wife and I made that donation. We've donated to bipartisan super PACs as well.”
Warner: Entry-level analyst jobs for business graduates are gone
“Those are the jobs that you come out and you go work for a firm for a couple years as a young analyst or whatever. Those jobs are gone.”
Warner: DHS denied a Global Entry pass over protest attendance
“I know I was, I raised real concerns about Palantir and the six other technology companies that have taken contracts with Department of Homeland Security, and I've been extraordinarily concerned that, you know, DHS or ICE, as we saw, People targeted in Minneso…”
Yen: AIs will soon discern who we are better than psychologists
“AIs are going to get better at discerning who we are than probably even a psychologist.”
Yen: Frontier AI training costs will plummet to $1M in years
“What I mean by this is today, if you want to train a top of the line, you know, our frontier model, that might cost you a couple billion dollars.
But in a couple of years, that might be fifty million to, you know, a hundred million.
And then a few more years o…”
Kantrowitz: Tech's $700B AI CapEx Threatens To Hollow Out Software Industry
“If that seven hundred billion in capex that the tech giants are spending this year on AI pays off, you're going to have this entire Hollowing out of the software industry of many, maybe other industries”
Sam Altman is positioning OpenAI as a peace broker for Pentagon contracts
“He's trying to position this as like, they are the peace broker here, right? Like that they are the ones who are going to sort of iron out these differences between anthropic and the U S government by cutting their own deal that paves the path. To sort of do a…”
Levie: Altman's 2028 superintelligence timeline is totally reasonable
“I think that, that there's kind of, that seems to be totally reasonable based on the trajectory that we're on. And I would bet that, that Sam has an even a far higher bar for what his definition of, you know, intellectual or whatever the term was, then even I …”