The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 128 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Barnard: 40% of US Carbon Emissions Come From Homes
“What people don't know is 40% of all carbon emissions in the United States come from the home.”
Hayes Barnard Feb 23, 2022 ▶ 15:09 How Hayes Barnard Is Transforming Solar Tech & Green Housing · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Barnard: Three billion people worldwide lack access to electricity
“Three billion people don't have access to electricity.”
Hayes Barnard Feb 23, 2022 ▶ 23:39 How Hayes Barnard Is Transforming Solar Tech & Green Housing · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Sprowls: Florida House Unanimously Passed Canadian Drug Importation Despite Pharma Attacks
“You know, the pharmaceutical companies came in hot and heavy because we wanted to open up markets in Canada to importation of drugs, right? They were blasting us on, on TV, Wall Street, going after us all over the place. But basically they attacked us, and the…”
Chris Sprowls Jan 20, 2022 ▶ 8:57 Joe Lonsdale and Chris Sprowls: How to Defeat Special Interests & Cronyism · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Reeser: Six of TSTC's top seven executives have corporate backgrounds
“If you look at the executive team at TSTC of the top seven executives that we have. Six of them came out of corporate America.”
Mike Reiser Jan 6, 2022 ▶ 30:56 Texas State Technical College: The School With a Money-Back Guarantee · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Marr: Epirus demonstrated an EMP weapon outputting gigawatts of power
“One of our first field demos, we showed off our electromagnetic pulse weapon. We're putting out gigawatts of power”
Bo Marmon Dec 15, 2021 ▶ 5:33 Force Fields & Directed Energy Are Here! How Epirus Is Changing Defense Tech · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Marr: Epirus invented chips capable of handling up to 2,000 volts
“So what we've invented is a gallium nitride chips and a silicon carbide chips. These new chips That can handle 1200 volts, 2000 volts. So we've digitized.”
Bo Marmon Dec 15, 2021 ▶ 9:57 Force Fields & Directed Energy Are Here! How Epirus Is Changing Defense Tech · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Findley: DeFi protocols offer 9% to 11% yields on Ethereum lending
“I've seen a couple really interesting protocols where, like, I can make nine, 10, 11% of my money lending out Ethereum.”
Keri Findley Sep 3, 2021 ▶ 23:56 Sal Churi, Keri Findley, and Wesley Chan: Innovators Changing Our World Right Now · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Kimbal Musk: Tesla is first new American carmaker in 100 years
“I think that what I love about Tesla is it's really an American made company and it's in, in the car world, that's first time in a hundred years.”
Kimbal Musk Jun 29, 2021 ▶ 20:52 Kimbal Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, The Kitchen, and Launching His First Company with Elon · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Emil Michael: Office of Strategic Capital Loans Cost Treasuries Plus 100 Bps
“So it's a basically treasuries plus a hundred bips.”
Emil Michael Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 21:53 America’s $700 Billion Defense Tech Rebuild
Assertion Contradicted
Sandler: Ivan Boesky Was the Largest Equity Trader on the NYSE
“He was the largest really purchaser and seller of equities on New York Stock Exchange, larger than any institution at the time.”
Richard Sandler Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 16:51 From Wall Street King to Federal Prison: Michael Milken's Story · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Fry: Gallup ranks small business as America's most trusted institution
“Gallup runs a poll every year on the top institutions that Americans trust. Small business has been number one since the poll started. It is 44% higher than Congress, obviously. It's also 22% higher than the healthcare system and it is remain number one.”
Will Fry Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 11:09 How to Turn $15K Into $1M in 2026 · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Loeffler: SBA's 8(a) Program Represents $40B in Annual Contracting
“Let's, let's be clear, it's forty billion dollars worth of annual contracting.”
Kelly Loeffler Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 19:50 Exposing a Billion Dollar Fraud Scandal (Using Palantir) · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Abbott: US has 40,000 to 50,000 freight brokerages
“There's 40, 50,000 trucking brokerages in America.”
Harish Abbott Sep 5, 2025 ▶ 19:25 How AI Agents Are Transforming Logistics · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Sofman: Anki's $150 Product Once Resold for $1,000 on eBay
“I remember one year we were the number one selling product on eBay, and the 150 dollar product was going for a thousand on eBay.”
Boris Sofman Jul 16, 2025 ▶ 6:36 How AI Robots Are Taking Over Construction · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Gil: Google used to maintain a webpage of things it would never do
“Google used to have this web page up that was like, here's all the things we're never going to do. And I said, we're never going to do IM or chat. We're never going to do a browser. We're never going to end up doing all those things, right? We're never going t…”
Elad Gil Nov 2, 2024 ▶ 5:13 Secrets Of Investing Early – Lessons From A Billion-Dollar Investor · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Lowery: FPV drones require direct impact, making short-range microwave defenses effective
“What happens is, is a first person viewer drone with what they call a contact charge needs to drive that first person view drone all the way into impact. Cause how the contact charge works is it hits the armor And then a little spike shoots through the armor, …”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 10:45 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Annual US Corporate 401(k) Matching Equals $75 Billion
“The four or one K match in this country, the corporate contribution annually is seventy five billion dollars.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 25, 2023 ▶ 21:42 Ep 67: Brad Gerstner on the AI Supercycle & Restoring Faith in Capitalism · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Rauch: Most cloud workloads in the world are in Virginia
“Virginia is where most of the cloud workloads in the world are.”
Guillermo Rauch Jun 11, 2023 ▶ 24:24 Ep 61: High School Dropout to Billion-Dollar Startup; the Story of Guillermo Rauch & Vercel · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Mintz: 8,000 People Die in Truck-Related Accidents Annually
“I mean, we have 8000 people that die in truck related accidents every year, and it's just, it's unnecessary, and it's wasteful.”
Nathan Mintz Apr 27, 2023 ▶ 28:46 Ep 55: Nathan Mintz on Directed Energy, a New Space Age & the Final Hurdles to a Driverless Future · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Applbaum: Israel is one of the world's largest net water exporters
“Today, Israel is one of the net largest exporters of water in the world.”
Yitz Applbaum Apr 5, 2023 ▶ 5:41 Ep 52: Yitz Applbaum and a Modern Middle East Renaissance · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Caliri: US Opioid Overdose Deaths Growing Over 30% Year-Over-Year
“And in fact, if you look at the most recent data, we're still seeing 30, 30 plus percent year-over-year growth in opioid overdose deaths.”
Sebastian Caliri Aug 8, 2022 ▶ 22:07 How Psychedelic Medicine Could Transform Healthcare | Why Medical School Is Broken · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Philips Velo and Nino were the first devices to support Audible
“And at Philips, I was doing the Philips Velo and Philips Nino. We were the first devices to Ever have audible on them.”
Tony Fadell May 20, 2022 ▶ 7:12 Legendary iPod & iPhone Creator Tony Fadell Shares His Design Secrets · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Lonsdale: Just over 50% of US public high schools offer multiple CS classes
“Just over 50% of public high schools nationwide offer over one class. My friend runs code.org, sorry, offer more than one computer science class.”
Joe Lonsdale Apr 27, 2022 ▶ 15:49 Zach Latta: Founding Hack Club & Inspiring the Next Generation of Builders · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Barnard: Residential Battery Attachment Rate Jumped to 25%
“I mean, the battery storage attachment rates increased significantly over the course of the last couple of years. It used to be two or three percent. Now it's like 25%.”
Hayes Barnard Feb 23, 2022 ▶ 15:18 How Hayes Barnard Is Transforming Solar Tech & Green Housing · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Jones: NFL Careers Extended to Five Years Due to Contact Rules
“And now, now it's five years, because you're not allowed to get touched, right?”
Dhani Jones Dec 31, 2021 ▶ 3:18 Joe Lonsdale and Dhani Jones Discuss the Power of Suffering & Adversity · Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Kloberdanz: OneHope will sell over 2.5 million wine bottles this year
“We're going to sell over two and a half million bottles.”
Jake Kloberdanz Sep 9, 2021 ▶ 5:59 Jake Kloberdanz: Cause-Centric Commerce and the Art of Award-Winning Winemaking · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Chan: Early Gmail invitations were selling for up to $2,000 on eBay
“Some of these invites, I remember, were selling for one or 2000 dollars off eBay for people to get on this Gmail service, because they wanted their two gigabytes of, like, email, right?”
Wesley Chan Sep 3, 2021 ▶ 34:40 Sal Churi, Keri Findley, and Wesley Chan: Innovators Changing Our World Right Now · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Brooks: Happiness and unhappiness are processed in different prefrontal hemispheres
“Happiness and unhappiness are, as cognitions are processed in different hemispheres of the prefrontal cortex. Literally, a different part of your brain is lighting up when you're having unhappy feelings as opposed to happy feelings.”
Arthur Brooks Jul 13, 2021 ▶ 4:23 Arthur Brooks: Finding Happiness -- What Most People Get Wrong and Few Get Right · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Luckey: NASA Conceived Real-Time VR Lens Correction in the 1960s
“People had come up with this at NASA, literally in the sixties and seventies, but the computational power hadn't existed, and the idea was just forgotten.”
Palmer Luckey Jul 5, 2021 ▶ 4:02 Palmer Luckey: Meet the Real-Life Tony Stark · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Lonsdale: Oklahoma is the only state where every county backed Trump
“I think you're the only state where every one of your counties voted for President Trump.”
Joe Lonsdale Nov 15, 2024 ▶ 1:40 From Entrepreneur To Governor: How He's Changing America · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Margain: Company Created First Character Phone with Hello Kitty
“We came up with the first character phone. So we created a Hello Kitty phone.”
Eddie Margain Jun 22, 2023 ▶ 3:11 Ep 63: Eddie Margain on Fleeing Mexico and Building Austin FC · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Scotti: Over 90% of Americans Live Within a 5-Minute Drive of a Pharmacy
“There's a, I mean, there's a pharmacy, you know, really within a five minute drive of like 90 plus percent of Americans.”
Kimmy Scotti Jan 26, 2023 ▶ 13:43 Kimmy Scotti: How to Spot (and Build) the Next Big Thing · Joe Lonsdale
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