The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Palantir, Anduril, and SpaceX sued the government for initial major contracts
“And one of the examples I use Palantir and Roland, SpaceX, all had to sue the government for their first big contract, because the primes were sophisticated at selling, sophisticated at protecting their interests.”
Palantir and SpaceX sued the US government for first defense contracts
“Palantir and Roland, SpaceX, all had to sue the government for the first big contract, because the primes were sophisticated at selling, sophisticated protecting their interests.”
Nolan: SpaceX can be cash-flow positive whenever it wants to be
“I think now the company, you know, has money and can be cashflow positive whenever they want to be.”
Cinnamon: SpaceX Holds Pricing Power and Has Raised Small Satellite Prices Annually
“And in fact, the price has gone up every year since then. So they have the pricing power. Now it's still very affordable, right? Like, if you rewind to 2015 or 20 10 to launch, ah, our, like, small satellite, like Aries, you'd be looking at 10 to twenty millio…”
Tim Urban predicts humans will land on Mars around 2035
“I would, if I had to guess now, I'd say, you know, 20, 35, something around there.”
Blank: SpaceX is the largest satellite manufacturer, surpassing traditional primes
“The largest satellite manufacturer is not Northrop Grumman or Lockheed or Boeing. It's SpaceX, right? Have a factory that makes this at scale at a scale unimaginable”
Nolan: Boeing's slow cost-plus programs drove him to join SpaceX
“Got to work at Boeing during college, got to see what a cost-plus government program looked like, thousands of people going extremely slow, decided I didn't want to do that, Didn't want to go back to Boeing, instead went to SpaceX”
Nolan: Early SpaceX employee handbook declared this is not a science experiment
“I remember getting there on day one and reading the employee handbook and on the top of page one was just a single line that was in bold. And it said this is not a science experiment.”
Isaacman: Point-to-point Earth transit requires Starship, not Falcon 9
“Falcon nine, probably not. I mean, you need Starship where your upper stage you're intending to recover.”
Cinnamon: Satellite architecture shifted to proliferated constellations around 2019
“Around 2019, the architecture started to shift towards what they call proliferation and attritability.”
Thiel: SpaceX was the first successful template for disrupting procurement monopolies
“SpaceX was the first successful template to do it”
Lonsdale: Boring Company CEO Steve Davis wants to teach at UATX
“Steve Davis, who is a key leader at SpaceX, CEO of Boring Company. He's, he wants to help teach mechanical engineering, teach engineering at our university because, and he's doing it because he likes teaching at university, but also because he wants some of th…”
Kimbal Musk predicts SpaceX will achieve 100% rocket landing success soon
“So give, give SpaceX a few years. They, they'll be really consistent and a hundred percent success.”
Nolan: Expediting critical-path projects pays off if cheaper than daily burn
“If you're on the critical path of schedule and you can make a one-time decision to pull in schedule by a day, like you can expedite something that's otherwise going to make us have to exist as a company for two more days, five more days, and it's worth less, i…”
Scott: Anthropic, Anduril, and SpaceX will be generation-defining companies
“Anthropic and Anduril and SpaceX. These are phenomenal companies. They will be generation defining companies, and it is a good strategy to give money to ATVC and Founders Fund and Thrive to invest in these companies.”
Cinnamon: Falcon 9 Reusability Increased Launch Cadence to Weekly by 2020
“In twenty-twenty, that we were at the turning point where they started to reuse the Falcon nine rockets, and we went from being able to launch maybe once a month to about once a week.”