The Exchanges

Q fund, you were invested in Facebook, you're doing other investing, and we decided to really go all in and spend a lot of time on Palantir. Why, why was that the right choice then as tech, but would be go more specifically, like what, what, what, what was, What was your high level around that at that time? How were you thinking about it? What gap were we going after?

A It was very broadly, uh, government, and then it was within that it was defense, uh, more narrowly it was sort of the, the, um, intelligence community that's sort of, you know, defense adjacent. Uh, I, You know, it was, it was a couple of years after nine 11. We were sort of starting it in 2003, 2004. And, uh, there were all these ways that, uh, I felt that we didn't, you know, that we, that we had these very low tech and very privacy violating solutions for the terrorism problem. You know, it was, it was annoying that you had to take off your shoes at every airport, which was like just Not security, but it was this incredibly intrusive security theater. And, uh, and then, yeah, the, the question was, could you do something where you'd have, you know, way more security with way fewer, um, you know, technologies doing more with less. And so the, the terrorism context was, could we have more security against terrorists with less intrusive, um, civil liberties violations. And then, um, and then, and then there was broadly, This question, you know, was, was there some way to, to reset all these things in the government? And, uh, it was a black box and, you know, we did not know whether places like the CIA and NSA and places like that had, you know, some super duper computer working in the background that was catching all the terrorists. Um, we sort of suspected they didn't. Um, and…

AI assessment note: “terrorism context was, could we have more security against terrorists with less intrusive”

Q Well, you're in Austin for a special lecture series at UATX. Let's start there just briefly. What's been your impression of our new university and the students?

A It is, it is surprisingly strong. I, I, I, you know, I, I, but, you know, Joe, I, I, I've told you before that if, if you don't pull off University of Austin, if you're not able to create a successful university at this time when they're all committing suicide, engaged in self-destruct, Uh, it is like, uh, it's like an absolutely hopeless thing to do. So, uh, um, but I think, um, uh, yeah, I, I, I think the, the caliber of the people is, is, is, is really high. And I've, I've done a decent amount of lecturing, speaking at, uh, different universities in the last, uh, in the last few years. And it is, it's just, it's just striking how there's, um, it's very unclear what people are doing. Uh, it's, you know, it was, it was a big achievement in a way for them to, for students to get into, you know, elite colleges like Yale or Harvard or, or Stanford. Um, but, uh, they're completely lost once they're there. Um, you know, high school still has an organizing function for it, where the point of high school is to get into college.

AI assessment note: “It is, it is surprisingly strong. I think the caliber of the people is really high.”

Q But it's like, like what, what do you think of the trade and tariff policy? What's going to happen? Bond yields sold off more than I expected. That yields went higher than I expected so far. Like what's, what's going on?

A Well, it's, yeah, I'm hesitant to comment since obviously it's a very, very fluid situation, but, but something like the sort of reset that's they're talking about now seems where we're going, where you need a very drastic reset with China. Um, in theory, you need to reset with other people, but, um, what we really need to get them to do is also reset things with China. I, I, you know, the, I think the rough numbers are that about a quarter of the US trade deficit is bilaterally with China, but another quarter is indirectly with China. So China is, is sort of half the problem. And, and so it's selling components that then get reassembled elsewhere. And, uh, and so, and, uh, and then China is the geopolitical rival. So, um, you know, there's, there's a way in which if, you know, people in, in a, I don't know, in a, Mercedes and Germany are selling cars to the US. We might want to have those pretty well paying jobs in the US and not in Germany. And there are all kinds of sort of mercantilist policies that at the margins Germany engages in. But, um, you know, it's not going to, it's probably not going to repurpose, um, the Mercedes factory to build tanks to invade the US or something like this. Whereas, um, whereas this, You know, the sort of dual use problem is, is the problem with China. And so it's, it's, you know, there's, there's sort of our, there are ways the economic relat…

AI assessment note: “something like the sort of reset that's they're talking about now seems where we're going”

Q But it wasn't really safe to admit it until like the last several months, right?

A I think, I think it was It felt very unsafe to admit it in the first Trump administration because in some ways all these things went into overdrive and they were sort of polarized around these sort of tribal politics or the tribal politics were used to push these things into overdrive. Uh, I think by the time, by the time Biden came in, it was safe for people behind closed doors to say, this stuff is, is, is really not working or, you know, um, You know, uh, and, um, and then, um, and then, and then certainly by the time, by the time Trump came back. It was, um, you know, even if people did not support President Trump in 20, 24, didn't support him publicly, uh, there was a incredible felt sense among all the top CEOs I know in Silicon Valley that there's all the stuff you can't talk about. There are things they tell me behind closed doors that are very different from what they feel they can say in public. And the, the gap, the gap felt really, really big. For, you know, a number of years. There's, I know there was a one, one of the bigger tech companies, um, you know, again, there's, it's over determined as a bottom up top down, you know, middle level management layer. There are all sorts of layers of the stuff that got messed up, but their version was, yeah, you had the most woke workforce in San Francisco. And so it was just, they were going to move a certain percentage of th…

AI assessment note: “It felt very unsafe to admit it in the first Trump administration”

Q we could create trillions of dollars of value by building tunnels and getting rid of traffic around our cities. And the reason that opportunity exists is because of this thing that's really broken, because it's an obvious thing, but it's so broken that no one's doing it. Is there other things like that where there's opportunities tied to the fact that things are broken? Do you see it that way?

A Well, those, those, anything that fits that pattern is a great opportunity. So if it's, um, if you have some, if, if, you know, it's, it's always, if it's broken, not because of the science or tech, so it doesn't require a miraculous, you know, you don't have to have a dozen miracles in terms of tech breakthroughs. You have to just do something in this, you know, In this non-mafia controlled drilling way or whatever, where, you know, I, I think so many of the, um, tunneling is this a super corrupt, um, contracting. It's mafia adjacent, you know, sort of super corrupt labor union adjacent. And so, I don't know, it costs, you know, it costs to build a subway in Manhattan. It's like a billion dollars a mile.

AI assessment note: “anything that fits that pattern is a great opportunity”

Q a few months into the new administration. Uh, Donald Trump, uh, hired a lot of people, a lot of people we know are working different parts of the administration. Uh, I'm gonna, maybe obviously obligatory question on trade, but first, like, what are you most excited about that's going on in the administration right now? Are there things that you think are really cool or things that are doing well?

A I'm the most hopeful I've been About things in a, in a long time. I think, uh, I think there are some very deep problems that need to be fixed. I think, uh, I think the opposition is, is completely exhausted and out of ideas. And so, um, so it's, it's, it's maybe the first time since, um, since early Reagan that there's, uh, there's really an opportunity to, um, To, uh, to change some things in this country. And it's not the sort of, uh, lame Bush Republican thing we had in the, you know, um, for, for a long time in between. And I don't think it's the, uh, completely sabotaged first Trump administration where you had, I don't know, um, it, it, it got blocked on every level outside and inside the administration. So I, I think they will get, you know, it's very unusual. Normally the second term does less than the first term, This, this is going to be the, I think will be the real first term.

AI assessment note: “I'm the most hopeful I've been About things in a, in a long time.”