Ukraine

19 statements across 9 episodes · 6 bullish · 8 bearish · 10 people on the record · first statement Feb 3, 2022 by Ambassador Kelly Craft · said 79 times in 22 episodes since 2022 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Joe Lonsdale (26), Dr. Mark Esper (12), Ambassador Kelly Craft (10), Marc Andreessen (4), Dino Mavrucas (3), Byron Boots (3), Ben Black (3), Mike Pompeo (2)

tap a year for its mentions
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051020222023202420252026episodes it came up in
0055101020222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 7 mentions in 2 episodes 4 per episode
2025 8 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
2024 8 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
2023 27 mentions in 9 episodes 3 per episode
2022 29 mentions in 3 episodes 10 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Ukraine, oldest first

Feb 3, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Craft: China is watching Ukraine and Taiwan could be next
“We obviously have China watching very closely because my fear is Taiwan will be next.”
Ambassador Kelly Craft Feb 3, 2022 ▶ 1:54 Peng Shuai, Beijing Olympics & Holding China Accountable with Former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 3, 2022 negative
What-if
Craft: Russian aggression would never have gone this far under Trump
“I think that, that Biden has not shown strength as the president that I served. We would have never been gone this far.”
Ambassador Kelly Craft Feb 3, 2022 ▶ 2:17 Peng Shuai, Beijing Olympics & Holding China Accountable with Former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 bullish
Opinion
Esper: Ukrainian military effectiveness exceeds expectations due to Western support
“The second thing we learned is that the Ukrainians have a much better military than we expect. And I think a lot of that is due to the arms and training that we provided them over the last few years.”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 1:46 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 negative
Opinion
Esper: Putin failed strategically by unifying NATO and driving Ukraine westward
“I said before the invasion actually began that Putin had already lost. He lost because he had done three things before invading that he shouldn't have wanted to do in the first place. That is, number one, unifying NATO. Number two, have more NATO troops move t…”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 2:07 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 positive
Insight
Esper: Ukraine's defense offers a vital blueprint for Taiwan against China
“The third thing though, and I said this again publicly, it was important to see the Taiwan, for the Taiwanese to see what an inspired, well-led defense, a territorial defense of their country can do, in this case, Ukraine, because that will be very important i…”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 10:14 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 31, 2022 negative
Opinion
Esper: Russian Military Has Reverted to Soviet-Era Tactics in Ukraine
“Well, I did think we thought we would see a difference, but it appears to be not unlike what we saw during Soviet times. So the heavy use of massed forces, a reliance on artillery if you will, barrage tactics to take down cities. But we thought that they would…”
Dr. Mark Esper Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 3:18 Dr. Mark Esper: Lessons from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 22, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pompeo: Ukraine war will continue until exhaustion forces a settlement
“That's why it's still going on, and why it's my expectation. It goes on for a while, but if you read just, if you read much history, certainly history of Europe, you, exhaustion takes place, and what seems impossible on Wednesday, a month from now, two months,…”
Mike Pompeo Feb 22, 2023 ▶ 14:55 Mike Pompeo: Negotiating with Tyrants, Spy Balloons (or UFOs?) & Why Trump Didn't Ban TikTok · Joe Lonsdale
Feb 22, 2023 positive
Opinion
Pompeo: Arming Ukraine will accelerate an unexpected diplomatic resolution
“I suspect that there will come a day when we'll all be surprised and they'll, they'll find a way to an accommodation that works for everyone there. And the only way to drive that is we ought to provide the Ukrainians with the things they're prepared to fight a…”
Mike Pompeo Feb 22, 2023 ▶ 15:41 Mike Pompeo: Negotiating with Tyrants, Spy Balloons (or UFOs?) & Why Trump Didn't Ban TikTok · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 29, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
McRaven: Russian Generals Died on Front Lines Due to Flawed Command Systems
“Their command and control systems were not very good. Of course, a lot of their generals had to come, come to the front lines and they were eliminated on the front lines because their command and control systems weren't good.”
Adm. Bill McRaven Mar 29, 2023 ▶ 32:07 Ep 51: Adm. Bill McRaven on Leadership, Modernizing the Dept of Defense & Dealing with China · Joe Lonsdale
Mar 29, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McRaven: Russia Modernized Tanks and Aviation but Failed on Soldiers and Tactics
“We've been watching the Russian modernization program over the last 10 or 15 years, you know, and so, I mean, they went from the, you know, T-seventy-two, T-eighty, T-ninety tank, they've modernized their aviation fleet and everything else. I mean, we saw this…”
Adm. Bill McRaven Mar 29, 2023 ▶ 30:32 Ep 51: Adm. Bill McRaven on Leadership, Modernizing the Dept of Defense & Dealing with China · Joe Lonsdale
Jul 14, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Karp: Ukrainian sites using Palantir were bombed and staff resumed work same day
“Some of the places that have used our product have been bombed. People have died, and the same day, those people are back at work.”
Alex Karp Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 40:42 Alex Karp On The Future Of AI And Building A Multi Billion-Dollar Company · Joe Lonsdale
Jul 14, 2023 bullish
Assertion Supported
Karp: Palantir AI identifies adversary positions across large land masses
“The most powerful use of our product currently, and again, of one of our products is Being able to identify an adversary over a large lying mass using AI, and that obviously it's been reported has led to a different level of ability to acquire the adversary's …”
Alex Karp Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 42:29 Alex Karp On The Future Of AI And Building A Multi Billion-Dollar Company · Joe Lonsdale
Jul 14, 2023
Assertion Supported
Lonsdale: Karp was the first Western CEO to visit Zelensky
“You were the first Western CEO to visit Zelensky in Ukraine.”
Joe Lonsdale Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 37:12 Alex Karp On The Future Of AI And Building A Multi Billion-Dollar Company · Joe Lonsdale
Jul 18, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: AI will favor defense over offense and reduce violence
“Arguably this swings AI swings very much the advantage of the defender over the attacker, and I think maybe we're already seeing that play out in Ukraine... My guess is this tilts in the direction of defense and therefore in the direction of probably actually …”
Marc Andreessen Jul 18, 2023 ▶ 50:03 Ep 65: Marc Andreessen and the Case for AI Optimism · Joe Lonsdale
Jul 18, 2023 negative
Opinion
Andreessen: Halting nuclear power in Europe enabled Russia to invade Ukraine
“The consequences of stopping nuclear power 50 years later, you know, it's just been, it was just like a catastrophic mistake. You know, geopolitically, it's directly connected to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Europe is effectively funding Russia to invade Ukra…”
Marc Andreessen Jul 18, 2023 ▶ 3:55 Ep 65: Marc Andreessen and the Case for AI Optimism · Joe Lonsdale
Oct 25, 2023
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Ukraine Aid Could Fund Invest America for 20 Years
“What we've spent in Ukraine to date would pay for this program for 20 years and seventy five million children touching almost every American household.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 25, 2023 ▶ 24:16 Ep 67: Brad Gerstner on the AI Supercycle & Restoring Faith in Capitalism · Joe Lonsdale
Jan 30, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Boots: Most uncrewed ground vehicles in Ukraine are teleoperated
“So, so most of the use of uncrewed ground vehicles in places like Ukraine or like tele operated vehicles.”
Byron Boots Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 11:16 The Man Behind the Military's Smartest Self-Driving Vehicles · Joe Lonsdale
May 8, 2026
Insight
Sankar: Deterrence comes from the ability to generate stockpiles, not static inventory
“What we got wrong to summarize it would be we thought the stockpile was the deterrent. It's not the stockpile. It's the ability to generate the stockpile.”
Shyam Sankar May 8, 2026 ▶ 30:10 Palantir CTO: We Need More Heretics · Joe Lonsdale
May 8, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sankar: US expended 10 years of munitions production in 10 weeks in Ukraine
“The lesson of Ukraine is that we went through 10 years of production and 10 weeks of fighting.”
Shyam Sankar May 8, 2026 ▶ 19:37 Palantir CTO: We Need More Heretics · Joe Lonsdale
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