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CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2034
1,000 Japanese Public Companies Will Likely Exit Within 10 Years
“And I would say over the next 10 years, a thousand of the 4000 listed companies are likely to be exited in one way or another.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 29:15 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Japan Will Not Retreat From Openness to Corporate Takeovers
“We don't think that Japan is going to run and hide, but watch this. This is where the thesis is playing out and where the friction point is.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 50:04 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Japanese Banks and Transfer Agents Now Support Unsolicited Takeover Bids
“Konami Capital today can make a bid for a company and expect every part of the unsolicited bid chain from investment bank, share transfer agent, Japanese bank and lender to provide financing services to get it done.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 54:33 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trust Bank Stewards at GPIF Drove Japan's Corporate Governance Upgrades
“A lot of these stewards of the companies, primarily from Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, ended up becoming the insiders in the GPIF, the Government Pension Investment Fund in Japan. These guys were the drivers of the governance upgrade in Japan.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 24:20 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Foreign Managers Backed by US Endowments Drove Japan's Stewardship Code
“It was really the emergence of the foreign manager with strong research capabilities, largely backed by U.S. University endowments that led the ultimate upgrade and the transmission of the stewardship code into reality.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 30:28 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Japanese Domestic Institutions Are Following Activist Leads on Proxy Voting
“And what we found is where a lot of these outside firms have pushed, domestic institutions are following. So this is why this time is different. We're seeing very constructive voting finally coming from the domestic investing complex.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 30:46 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Japan Adopted Poison Pills to Block Mid-2000s Activist Asset Stripping
“So out of this came a spade of poison pills, and Japan circled the wagons and shut down governance reform to basically prevent the looting and the asset stripping of a Japan that was finding itself undervalued at a very weak point in its recovery from the prev…”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 22:08 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Partly supported
Japanese Listed Companies Doubled From 2,000 to 4,000 Over 20 Years
“In Japan, we had the same 4000 listed companies, but we got there from 2000. That over the last same 20 years, we've added a lot of people during a period of a negative equity risk premium that were told that they could be a listed company with no strings atta…”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 28:50 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Partly supported
Tokyo Stock Exchange Publicly Shames Companies Failing Cost-of-Capital Disclosures
“It takes the TSE to literally publish a list of companies that are not publishing a cost of capital and proof that the management team is managing the business with a cost of capital mindset.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 31:27 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Roughly 3,000 Japanese Public Companies Have Zero Analyst Coverage
“By our analysis, still roughly 60, 70% of listed Japan, roughly 3000 companies remain totally uncovered by the street.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 36:12 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Japanese Quality-Value Equities Have Historically Compounded at 12%
“Japan has shown that it compounds at about 12%.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 44:51 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Japanese Companies No Longer Benefit From Yen Weakening Past 140
“When the end went through one 40, Japanese companies started saying, you know, this is not good for us anymore. So they've already been signaling that they don't want the end to go to one 60. So they're prepared for even our round tripping back to the one fort…”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 52:43 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Japan Routed 20% of GDP Through Banks in 1997-2003 Cleanup
“20% of Japan's GDP was run through the Japanese banking system between 1997 and 2003.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 20:26 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Half of Listed Japanese Companies Still Trade Below Book Value
“By most counts, still half of listed Japan trades at less than one time priced a book.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 35:48 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
300 High-Quality Japanese Companies Trade Under 5.5x EBITDA
“Then we just ask that we're able to get those stocks on less than five and a half times EBITDA, And lo and behold, there are still 300 of these companies in Japan.”
Toby Rodes Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 37:38 Toby Rodes - Unlocking Value in Japan (EP.407)
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