The Ledger, every show

“The future of SaaS is not fewer companies. It's a higher bar, and SaaS doesn't need to become something else to survive it. It doesn't turn into agents. It doesn't dissolve into everybody's weekend side project. It stays what it is. The future of SaaS, I belie…”

“So my sixth prediction is that Google will see its biggest ever drop in revenue Due to the transition from 10 blue links being the prominent way people search into AI ads, and I think Google's gonna have a bit of time that they're gonna need to figure it out”

“The second prediction I want to touch on is I predicted that Twitter changes hands in twenty-twenty-four, question mark? And I don't know about you, but does it feel like the writing's on the wall? That Twitter is gonna be snapped up by someone at a deep disco…”

“I've said on the show, I think it's 10 to 20% of SaaS apps are gonna, gonna eat it. Like, they're gonna have real trouble. And it's some specific Categories and things that AI can specifically just replace or people will build themselves or whatever.”

“And this is one reason we see AI software with these outrageous churn rates of 20 to 40% per month, because the promise is there, and then you dip your toe in, and it doesn't actually work.”

“So agents aren't going to kill SAS. They need SAS. They actually increase the demand for good APIs, whether it's CLIs, MCPs, however you want to look at it.”

“Of the 210 companies That Tiny Seed has invested in, it's like, I think it's just over four percent have any type of social media marketing or any type of audience. The other 96%, they just market, they do SEO, they do cold outbound, they do advertise, you kno…”

“Across TinySeeds, 210 companies, there were like four percent of those, maybe five, I think it was just under five percent, that had any type of audience Or have ever built any type of audience, and yet we have dozens of companies doing six, I mean, sorry, doi…”

“So my first prediction is that bootstrapped and mostly bootstrapped horizontal SaaS will experience massive headwinds in twenty-twenty-six.”

“Prediction number four is that the AI VC bubble will not burst in 2026. Massive investment will continue without a dramatic crash.”

“We've funded a handful, and I don't know the exact numbers, but it's five or less Of no code, code bases. No code apps, I guess I would call them, you know, that are built in air table, bubble, that kind of stuff. And all of them have been rewritten or will ne…”

“They will match or beat our offers, right? It's like, we make an offer and then they're like, well, obviously I'll give you a higher valuation because they have to. And yet we win almost all those deals.”

“The moment you plateau, the odds of you getting past that plateau are actually quite low, at least from the analysis that I did.”

“So my fourth prediction for 2025 and the first new one is that search volume For Google organic SEO, and I'm talking about content-based keyword targeting, where you're cranking out an essay, an ultimate guide, a blog post, I think they will slide across the b…”

“Most companies that I see that do hit a plateau, don't make it out. And I think the number of the graphs that I looked through, it was like, 80, between 80 and 90%. Once they plateaued, they just, they haven't yet made it out.”

“They can do stuff like not market, like not sell, because they're in a luxurious position and good for them. You know, the luck and timing were one and two. Jason Fried told me that for their success. Unless I can replicate luck and timing, I can't. Then I nee…”

“Less than five percent of all tiny seed funded companies, which is like a 170 now less than five percent had any kind of audience when they started or even have any kind of audience today.”

“Giving loans to their employees so that employees could buy stock options, and then Bolt lost 97% of its value, and so anyone who took out loans to buy their stock options now owes the company money, sometimes thousands, sometimes tens of thousands of dollars.…”

“I think that Twitter might change hands again in 20, 24. That is probably the ultimate prediction.”

“That once will not penetrate. It's my prediction. They will not penetrate past the handful of nerdy developers who basically want to manage their own servers.”

“I don't believe AI is going to take a bunch of developer jobs. I think this is the rising tide that raises all the boats. Unless you're a real developer, and you don't, or you resist AI, or you don't want to use it becomes this tool of augmentation that I thin…”

“I don't think we will have a billion dollar outcome. I just don't see that being reasonable. I think we'll have a lot of 10 to 50, 10 to a hundred million dollar outcomes, and the number, we've run a bunch of models, and in fact, if you go to tinyc.com slash t…”

“There's actually, isn't it, it's top towel, I believe, where they, Raise money on safe's convertible notes. They never raised another round. They haven't sold. And so all the investors don't technically own the equity and the founder can actually literally leg…”

“My prediction is Clubhouse will be done. I know they have this amazing valuation right now, and I say amazing, what is it, billions of dollars, but it's just, for me, it's this typical Silicon Valley FOMO investor thing of everybody wants a piece of it now bec…”

“So yes, drip, I do want to get it bigger, but drip will never be a billion dollar business. It's not, it's just not designed to do that.”

“Even in the age of AI, though, some SaaS will succeed. We know that SaaS is seeing headwinds, but there are a lot of types of SaaS companies that are going to be okay”

“More apps getting built is not going to mean more companies getting built. Because those are two different things.”

“Consumer and prosumer apps specifically, I think are going to take a big hit, because consumers and prosumers are so cheap, and they'll blow a weekend coding something, vibe coding it, to kill, what, a hundred dollar a year subscription.”

“Product, like making decisions of what to build next, especially in early stage, I think AI's garbage at that, and I think it will be not good at it for a very long time”

“How few, even tiny seed startups that are like, bleeding edge, Almost none of them have MCP and CLI, and the ones that do have two users, three users, is not, we are not nearly as far as Twitter would have you believe, right? We're like, oh, everyone's buildin…”

“Every company that I've invested in or otherwise had visibility into that has been no code or has been poorly coded, I will say, I'm just going to assume that AI vibe coding is poorly coded and hard to maintain long term. That may or may not be correct. But wh…”

“Cause you're still alive doing millions a year in ARR, and they're now under, out of business, even though they had such a head start with ten million in the bank.”

“Prediction number three is that the top few brands in any category will grab massive market share in twenty-twenty-six, even more so than in prior years due to the fact that AI chat interfaces are recommending a short list of companies.”

“My fifth prediction is that open source AI models Will double in global usage driven by cost control and platform risk. So as of now, a working paper summarized in IT Pro says closed models are about 80% of overall usage, implying that open is about 20%, and I…”

“My sixth prediction is that at least one major no-code platform will struggle or go under as AI removes its core advantage.”

“My eighth prediction is that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high of a 160,000 dollars in 26. And I think the price will range from about a 100,000 to a 160,000 throughout the year.”

“In its current incarnation, do I think Vidhug can be a, you know, a mid six figure business? I don't. And it's just my opinion, right? It doesn't mean I'm right or wrong, but I don't see an angle there as it stands today.”

“And the ones that don't, the 10, 15% that don't, Code maintainability, code velocity, security, just all this stuff is there, is always their number one issue, inevitably.”

“Basecamp throws off tens of millions of dollars a year in net profit. And for all intents, it's basically Jason Fried and DHH. Those dudes are raking an eight million, I'm sorry, 8,000,008 figures a year of net profit.”

“In most cases, and this is again, 90, 90, 95% plus of plateaus that I see, or have nothing to do with market size, or I've tapped out a market. It's really a one in 51 in a hundred, where it's like, oh no, we really have tapped out the market, and you actually…”

“There's no way SAS is dying. Just like no code didn't kill SAS. No code had an impact on SAS, but it's so easy to go to the one of the extremes and say, well, it's not going to do anything or it's going to totally kill it.”

“I have seen folks, Ruben Gomez with SignWell, I know Heaton Shaw did this, where they add the Google login, and it does increase their funnel. It increases the number of folks coming through their conversion funnel.”

“Infusionsoft, by the way, renamed itself Keep, and they recently sold to private equity for less than one X ARR multiple, because they didn't have, they just stopped growing.”

“But can they get to five, 10, 15,000,020 million ARR, mostly bootstrapped, just with marketing and sales? Yes. Absolutely. I've seen it over and over and over.”

“And several tiny seed companies have done this. And I say tiny seed companies because I have pretty detailed insight into what they're doing and how they're doing it and the results of it. And any of them that remove their free plan, even for existing users, h…”

“My first is that Twitter will change hands in twenty-twenty-five. I think either the debt's gonna be called due, someone's gonna do a hostile takeover. The valuation is so low, I just think it is inevitable that Twitter will change hands here at some point, an…”

“I am predicting that the term AI will be used in fewer H-ones one year from now, because it will just be assumed that AI is built into everything.”

“There are very few that are, you know, quote unquote, AI rappers, ChatGPT rappers that will be around For years.”