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20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2029
Chirls: 75% of 2020-2021 vintage VC funds won't return principal
“If you think about the twenty-twenty-one vintage, I think a one X fund will be top quartile. I think returning your money is, I think returning your LP's money on almost any timeframe will be top quartile. So in that sense, probably 70, I would guess 75% of th…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 21:11 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chirls: Junior partners at big VCs are compensated on deployment speed
“Your junior partner at these big firms, sort of like a VP at Goldman, they are compensated and promoted based on money velocity, not money returns.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 0:00 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Chirls: VC is a Ponzi scheme guaranteeing 20% fees regardless of performance
“The venture Ponzi is you raise a fund, you take two percent management fees for 10 years guaranteed, it does not matter how well that fund does, and you've taken 20% of that fund and put it in your pocket.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 5:36 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chirls: VCs can raise new funds by matching NASDAQ returns
“The returns need to just look like about the NASDAQ. It just needs to be, it just needs to be roughly in line with the NASDAQ for them to continue to raise. And by the way, that's true for all of venture. That's true for all of venture, which again is why, lik…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 38:10 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chirls: No VC firm has ever determined a startup's success or failure
“I have never found that any investment we've made ever, or really any, I've never seen any VC Be truly the difference between success and failure of a company. Period.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 46:56 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Contradicted
Chirls: Top-quartile 2015 vintage VC funds haven't returned capital
“The top quartile, the best 25% of venture firms from the twenty-fifteen vintage have not returned their investors all their money. We're nine years in. The top quartile has not given their investors their money back.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 20:50 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Contradicted
Chirls: Bison Trails hit $30M revenue 18 months post-investment
“18 months later, they were doing almost thirty million in revenue, and they were a monopoly on the market.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 40:59 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chirls: Non-institutional VCs will win more founders over next decade
“I believe actually the less institutional and banker-like you can look to founders over the next decade, the more likely you are to win. So I think that the most of venture is deeply focused on becoming institutional. It feels more professional. I think the mo…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 1:04:14 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chirls: Asylum Ventures only sells secondary stock when founders are selling
“We will only do that when the founder is selling. At, but I will say when the founder is selling, we almost always do it.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 59:45 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Didn’t hold up
Notation Capital will exclusively back startups based in New York City
“Yeah, so at least today we're on New York, very much a New York City focused fund. The, so, so every single one of our companies that we work with will be primarily based in New York.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 15:01 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
20VC Assertion Supported
New York City consistently produces billion-dollar tech exits like Etsy and Tumblr
“New York, we believe, has now shown that it consistently can produce billion plus dollar exits, and so that's companies like Etsy and Mongo and Tumblr and a bunch of others, you know, a bunch of e-commerce companies as well.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 7:19 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
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