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“In many markets, that's competitive with wind, solar, and batteries. In many markets, that just beats nuclear cold.”

“They can build a natural gas with CCS plant in roughly half the time in which they could build a nuclear plant.”

“In the U.S., assuming three dollars per million BTU for natural gas, on a new build, All costs. That means cost of capture, compression, transportation, storage, and permitting. You're looking at 70 to a hundred dollars a megawatt hour.”

“We are seeing Secretary Wright propose a set of cuts to programs that were approved by Congress and approved by the prior DOE. In some cases, Congress, I mean the contracts have already been made, and this is part of the broader rescission around clean energy.…”

“With respect to Forty-five-Q and other tax credits in the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act I give high odds That they will sustain, 45 Q, 45 V related projects.”

“If every Sustainable aviation fuel plant that had been announced were to be built, there would not be enough fuel for the twenty-twenty-seven target. Period.”

“I do think it's going to be unusual to It's going to be big in those economies, but not the rest of the world. India is not going to do this. The US is not going to do this. South Africa is not going to do this. They have other options. And so ammonia is a pow…”

“But in twenty-fifty, I think we're going to end up with a blend of both, in part because we're starting already with methanol. People are making investments in methanol ships and methanol bunkering because they want to decarbonize rapidly by twenty-thirty. And…”

“As we looked into this in our report, one of the things we discovered is that if ammonia gets in the air and atmosphere, we do not know today whether it makes greenhouse gas warming bigger or smaller. A lot of evidence suggests it improves greenhouse gas warmi…”

“Pretty soon, there's gonna be some loading order priority, which a government, a municipal government, or a state government, or a federal government, comes out and says, you know, first use of biomass is for X, second use of biomass is for Y. And when that ha…”

“We do need huge volumes of biomass to make huge volumes of sustainable aviation fuel. But in point of fact, there is way more waste biomass than that. So we're not going to hit the limit just on sustainable aviation fuel.”

“I will add, if you retrofit an existing plant, it's cheaper, because assuming that plant has been fully depreciated, so you're retrofitting something that's in a utility off on the grid somewhere, the costs come in more like 40 to 70 dollars a megawatt hour.”

“And that means you're looking at something like 20 to 25 to 30 dollars a megawatt hour is the adder in most markets. And 45 Q knocks off, say, half of that.”

“There's a handful of companies that will today sell you a big facility with a performance guarantee and a wrapper, and they will sell you like up to ten million tons of capture a year. They will sell you big facilities. These are Fleur, Schlumberger Acker, She…”

“So we have something on the order of 47 facilities around the world that operating today that capture CO₂ and keep it out of the air and oceans for climate. Broadly, that's about sixty million tons a year.”

“Out of the, say, six gigatons that the IPCC believes we're going to need to do, five and a half gigatons of that are going to be storage. It's something like 90%.”

“So turning CO two into concrete is a gigaton market, and it's not nuts. It actually releases energy.”

“If you tried to liquefy hydrogen and ship that instead of ammonia, and then regasify it at the other end, that basically adds about three dollars a gallon gasoline equivalent compared to just moving ammonia around.”

“There are not going to be huge amounts of ammonia pipelines going around the world. Like, we're not going to see that. The way that we use ammonia pipelines in the U.S. Today is sort of very unusual and bespoke for our purpose, but that's not the way that we'r…”

“So there's a risk that by Europe going forward fast on sustainable aviation fuels that may lead to eco-colonialism or may lead to deforestation and bad outcomes, even though they're chasing something virtuous.”

“For some of these systems, it's like, 60 dollars a ton. It's just cheaper to bury the carbon instead of making something. And at a carbon price of, say, a hundred bucks or a 120 bucks, that's pretty much everything.”

“I will reiterate that this number, 70 to a hundred dollar megawatts, requires low cost natural gas. So Europe is not going to be doing a lot of this, right?”

“We have something like 10 to 20 trillion tons of storage capacity in those kinds of rocks.”

“Now there's hundreds of companies that turn CO₂ into those kinds of products.”

“And the reason why is because methanol is going to be an important maritime fuel. About two, two and a half percent of global emissions are shipping stuff around the world with boats. And it turns out that they need a clean fuel too. As we've talked about befo…”

“If you can actually turn CO two into those materials, they're hard to make, but boy, are they valuable. They're like a 100,000 dollars a ton.”

“But these sort of, you know, superconducting carbon structures are a thing you could do, If not now, maybe in 15 years, maybe in 20 years.”

“I expect we're going to be seeing more of these kinds of things. That's not yes in every community, but it does mean that there will be some communities that opt in because they get the benefits themselves. So watch this space. This is no panacea or done deal,…”

“We're seeing that happening right now in Europe, where basically, instead of doing pipelines, they're doing barges. They're putting CO₂ on boats and shipping it down the Rhine, and the reason why is because they can't get a pipeline through Germany. Like, Germ…”

“The fact that blew my brain is the United States has already 10,000 miles of ammonia pipeline in it.”

“A first useful consideration is should you just capture that CO₂ and store it, keep it out of the atmosphere? And in a bunch of places, that will be the fastest, cheapest way to decarbonize. That only typically gets you 60% decarbonization.”

“Basically, the government of Japan has said, we will buy low carbon ammonia at a premium, and we will use it to decarbonize our existing infrastructure.”

“And I think it is going to continue to be the case that Jet A is going to be the winner, and synthetic fuels of all stripes still have to make Jet A.”

“Japan is going to be putting ammonia into its steel mills”

“So if you take an existing blast furnace and put hydrogen into it, you can get about 20% decarbonization. Okay, that's worth doing, but you can't get 50% decarbonization with hydrogen.”

“If you have distributed hydrogen production, you could very well have distributed ammonia production. And so these kinds of things are opportunities that we're going to see emerge over the next decade, and I'm excited to see that technology come to the field.”

“A study we did is on the order of two and a half to five and a half billion tons of CO₂ could be removed by just using that waste.”

“In the near term, I'm less worried about the biomass supply, but I'm, I do mean that in the near term, in like the next 10 years or so. I think it's possible to put together long-term offtakes, that it's possible for those long-term offtakes to really be focus…”

“City of Lancaster in California is running the entire city on waste biomass. They're putting it into a plasma gasifier, and they're running their trucks, and they're running their power systems, and they're running their heating entirely on waste biomass.”

“Ultimately, though, we are going to need to have some kind of global standards For sustainable biomass, we don't have those yet, which makes it a little hard to have, you know, global commodities exchanges on it because we're still not quite sure we're talking…”

“And we have deployed CCS on some 40 facilities around the world. We're capturing around sixty million tons a year and injecting it underground.”

“The 5000 miles of CO two pipelines in the United States are largely dedicated to that.”

“So it costs something like 18 bucks a ton or something like that to ship things by truck, where it might cost two bucks a ton to ship it by pipeline, right?”

“0.7% of the fuels in Europe in 2030 are gonna be e-fuels for jets by law.”

“One of them is urea, which is a massive fertilizer market today. That is super cheap and easy to do, and in fact, there's a couple of big plants around the world that do that today. In Saudi Arabia, for example, SABIC, the chemical company there, has been taki…”

“One of them is, there was announcement just a couple of days ago, a portion of the summit pipeline, a company called Tallgrass, is going to capture CO₂ in Nebraska and store it in Colorado. They are repurposing an existing natural gas pipeline to do that.”

“Today we make about a hundred and eighty million tons a year of ammonia worldwide. And the total ammonia market is sixty billion dollars, which is shockingly small, actually.”

“There are already about 200 shipping terminals that, that, that ship ammonia to receiving terminals. So there's already a big infrastructure to it.”