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20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Ball: Most 2021 mega-round startups will never reach their peak valuations
“I think there's the vast majority of companies who raise these mega rounds in 2021. Will probably never be worth at any point in time, right? The valuation that they were given in the public markets.”
Jamin Ball Jan 10, 2024 ▶ 20:34 Ed Sim & Jamin Ball: Did Figma Kill M&A Markets & 3 Requirements to IPO in 2024 | E1101 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Ball: ZIRP-era funding rounds lacked ratchets blocking down-round IPOs
“The reality of the moment we live in today is a lot of these zerf rounds, they didn't have ratchets. It was the opposite. They were very light on terms and they were very light on structure. So you don't have this Dynamic of super heavy ratchets, anti-dilution…”
Jamin Ball Jan 10, 2024 ▶ 54:36 Ed Sim & Jamin Ball: Did Figma Kill M&A Markets & 3 Requirements to IPO in 2024 | E1101 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ball: Down-round IPOs will become normal despite the current taboo
“I think kind of down rounds or down round IPOs will be the same thing. There'll be a taboo on them, but they'll be normal.”
Jamin Ball Jan 10, 2024 ▶ 1:01:48 Ed Sim & Jamin Ball: Did Figma Kill M&A Markets & 3 Requirements to IPO in 2024 | E1101 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ball: Regulatory opposition will block large-scale tech M&A in 2024
“From a regulation standpoint, it is really hard to see any large-scale M&A.”
Jamin Ball Jan 10, 2024 ▶ 44:10 Ed Sim & Jamin Ball: Did Figma Kill M&A Markets & 3 Requirements to IPO in 2024 | E1101 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Ball: Software venture funding fell 90% from peak to 2016-2017 levels
“Really, twenty-twenty-one and probably the first half of twenty-twenty-two, and now in twenty-twenty-three, we're down 90% from where we were at the peak, but we're really just back to the 2016, 20 17 trend line, right?”
Jamin Ball Jan 10, 2024 ▶ 5:59 Ed Sim & Jamin Ball: Did Figma Kill M&A Markets & 3 Requirements to IPO in 2024 | E1101 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ball: The 2024-2025 VC vintage sits at the valuation bottom
“I think the setup for this year for next year is that we're in the bottom half, or maybe the bottom third of the valuation reset, and in the first third of a massive technology shift that's going to create a ton of creative destruction.”
Jamin Ball Jan 10, 2024 ▶ 1:12:47 Ed Sim & Jamin Ball: Did Figma Kill M&A Markets & 3 Requirements to IPO in 2024 | E1101 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
BG2 Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ball: Services markets are usually 10x larger than software markets
“Services markets are usually 10 X bigger than software markets.”
Jamin Ball Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 48:28 Ep19. State of Venture, AI Scaling, Elections | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jamin Ball · Bg2 Pod
20VC Assertion Supported
Ball: Public software companies average 7x to 8x forward revenue multiples
“You know, on average, software companies trade around seven and a half times forward revenue, right? You can ignore that 20, 20, 21 period when interest rates went to zero. And so companies on average are going to exit at seven to eight times forward revenue, …”
Jamin Ball Jan 10, 2024 ▶ 18:14 Ed Sim & Jamin Ball: Did Figma Kill M&A Markets & 3 Requirements to IPO in 2024 | E1101 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ball: In 2021, startups were funded indiscriminately as future public companies
“In 20, 21, everyone was funded indiscriminately as you are going to be a public company. You're in a market that's big enough. You have a product that's differentiated enough to support a public market type company.”
Jamin Ball Jan 10, 2024 ▶ 29:04 Ed Sim & Jamin Ball: Did Figma Kill M&A Markets & 3 Requirements to IPO in 2024 | E1101 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Held up
Ball: Major tech acquirers like Palo Alto Networks will buy few startups
“Palo Alto isn't going to go acquire 10 companies, right, in the next year. They might acquire a couple. Same with all these other, like, large acquirers.”
Jamin Ball Jan 10, 2024 ▶ 45:11 Ed Sim & Jamin Ball: Did Figma Kill M&A Markets & 3 Requirements to IPO in 2024 | E1101 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Ball: Bessemer invested in MindBody at $10M ARR on a $42M valuation
“This was 2010, and they were doing a deal at ten million of ARR at 42 pre”
Jamin Ball Jan 10, 2024 ▶ 59:40 Ed Sim & Jamin Ball: Did Figma Kill M&A Markets & 3 Requirements to IPO in 2024 | E1101 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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