The Ledger, every show

“If Zuck expired, Meta's stock price would increase.”

“Cognition raising round at forty six billion dollars reportedly. They will end the year at 1.6 billion in ARR. Currently doing 800 to 900.”

“I'm an investor in McCaw. I never thought this would be as big as it has got as quickly as hit, as it has done. It's crossing out two, two and a half billion ARR. They're doing a new round led by General Catalyst at twenty billion.”

“Surge are doing three, three and a half. McCaw are doing two and a half. Handshaker doing one. Micro One are doing half.”

“I just think Sam Altman is someone who I would never, ever bet against, and I think he's the best politician in the world, and I think when he says something, he says it with intent, and when he says we should give five percent away to the administration, he's…”

“I think one of the worst performing groups in terms of venture in this vintage will actually be the small boutique seed funds, which is what every single LP that you speak to today, Matt, wants. Every LP. This is the funniest thing. Every LP wants San Francisc…”

“You can't do Series A unless you have a four hundred million dollar fund today. Absolutely no chance.”

“Menlo will make ten billion dollars in carry Spot will too, plus Founders Fund will make more than that from SpaceX.”

“Sam Altman just offered two million dollars In open AI tokens to every YC startup in the current batch in exchange for equity.”

“Struggles in parental relationships often signify very successful founders, sadly.”

“Every dollar wants its home in Anthropic right now, and it's caused secondary market prices to surge to a trillion dollars for Anthropic.”

“The amount of Sequoia rounds where it's like, oh, you know, X raises money from square five billion. Trust me, Sequoia got in at one, but they just club it together and then announced the sum and then the latest valuation. And it's just very misleading.”

“Cursor announces their movement from a billion to two billion in revenue in, in three months. Rumors of secondary round being done at fifty billion.”

“If we want to add in Waymo and what it'll do for self-driving within a four year period, Gosh, I think you could see 30 to forty million people.”

“If they sell per seat, we're not doing it. We need to replace jobs. Like labor displacement is what we're investing into. And that's the only way that we can actually return the amount of money that we need to now to make funds worth it.”

“I think there's a chance that Cursor loses half of their revenue this year with the cannibalization of them by claw code.”

“Claude Code, Has cannibalized a lot of Cursor's business overnight and everyone's canceling Cursor.”

“I think another prediction of mine for 2026 is I think we're going to see like the demonization of tech and tech leaders like never before, as you see the first real instantiation of job losses and job displacement in, in large parts of the economy, like in lo…”

“Now this company has gone to five hundred million in revenue, faster than anyone else, I believe, in history. I think it was 17 months.”

“Most 25, twenty-six-year-old marketing managers or SDRs, I'm sorry to say it, they're not brilliant. They do not love the craft. They are not better than a phenomenal agent will be in the next 12 months. They will be replaced.”

“I look at the Midas list, and none of the people on that did the deals that they said they did.”

“And then with David, he's raised eighty-five million dollars from Green Oaks, Peter Atiyah, Andrew Huberman, and in their first year alone, they're gonna do a hundred million dollars in revenue.”

“I think multi-stage win The next 10 years.”

“I don't think any venture investors are going to make money from LLMs.”

“With a LickPref, there is zero chance this does not get bought for at least LickPref.”

“I do not think in five years the majority of companies that could go public will go public. I think being public will be an unfortunate consequence of scale.”

“And we have companies like Klarna who are saying, oh, we're replacing all of our SaaS with AI. They're not, they're absolutely not. And they won't.”

“There's 99% of CEOs come on the show, and they either shut up, or they say they vote for Kamala, and then it ends, and they're like, by the way, I'm so Trump, I am so Trump”

“I'm pretty worried for venture as an asset class. I think 21 will be some pretty bad numbers and a really shitty vintage, and I think people are artificially keeping numbers high, and I don't think LPs have quite the understanding of how bad it is.”

“I don't think many of the 20, 21 vintage funds will return one X.”

“I actually think that they've come in with such efficiency that actually they've made it so much harder for the existing pure seed players. They've increased price. They've increased supply. I think you will see returns significantly denigrate. We all saw five…”

“When you actually look at the data, and we have probably the most data across, I think almost anyone, we have 2700 GP track records, and when you look across that data set, 78% of the time reserves are misallocated.”

“We're going to see cap gains go up incredibly, and everyone's going to leave. And that will be the end of UK venture P hedge funds. It will be disastrous.”

“I think AI will actually destroy outbound in many cases, because it will just create infinite supply of messages, or infinite supply of whatever channel that is, and so I think you actually see the complete removal of it.”

“I was looking at one today and one was valued at eight hundred million and the other person had it at 10.2 billion.”

“Having software investors invest in hard tech is a very different game. It is like you wouldn't have your sales team Write code. And it's the same thing. It's a very different mindset. So I think a lot of people will get burnt there”

“I don't say 90% of what I think because of the backlash that would come from the one percent woke. I think every CEO that I speak to have on the show is the same.”

“There is an inverse correlation between the NPS of the manager and the DPI provided. Most often, the higher the NPS, the lower the DPI, and vice versa.”

“The chasm between TVPI and DPI will be the biggest in venture history.”

“However, 99% of the money invested into AI startups today will go to zero.”

“I have many friends who are doing like 10 plus a year base.”

“But like, my worst performing, and I've done a 150 investments now, the worst performing ones are always the stellar VP that comes out of the stellar company and raises 10 on 40 as the pre-seed. They are always the ones which slowly meander to either a bad hac…”

“I would say threads does not work. Maybe it teases along at five million DAU with hardcore small numbers. And I would say Twitter has modest growth to Two 75, 300 with election spikes.”

“We see a load of VCs who made a load of investments without ever meeting the company and they are unraveling faster than ever now. And that is in large part because they didn't spend the time in person.”

“Trust me, you ain't shooting three X on that two billion dollar fund.”

“I think we'll see the death of many of the micro funds, the funds that raised from founders, public market founders who now have had their net worths crushed.”

“What I'm seeing is no one's marking their books down, and they're keeping them all at the incredibly inflated prices, and claiming that that's still how it is.”

“97% of the money that's gone into Uber will not return one X, just given the quantum of money.”