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CATALYST Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2046
Roberts predicts recycled minerals will become cheaper than mined within 20 years
“I would just say that my, I guess my prediction would be that in 10 years, maybe or in 20, that just a unit of critical minerals drawn from recycling will be cheaper than a unit of Mind. I think. I think. Eventually. Like, I think it will end up being our prim…”
David Roberts Feb 25, 2026 ▶ 50:49 Volts crossover: Six big energy questions
CATALYST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Roberts: A rogue actor could test solar geoengineering cheaply and go undetected
“You could stand up and do a reasonably large scale test on your own without a ton of money, arguably without being detected doing so by the world.”
David Roberts Feb 25, 2026 ▶ 56:44 Volts crossover: Six big energy questions
CATALYST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roberts predicts the concept of distinct distributed energy resources will fade away
“You and I know that the way the long-term evolution is that basically everything that is plugged in is gonna become a resource eventually. Like, the notion of DERs as a kind of distinct category, I think, is just gonna kind of fade away, because eventually, li…”
David Roberts Feb 25, 2026 ▶ 26:19 Volts crossover: Six big energy questions
CATALYST Assertion Supported
Roberts: Pakistan recently imported solar capacity equivalent to 40% of total load
“Pakistan went, like, I think it was like two years or three years, 40% of its total load now was It has imported solar panels equivalent to 40% of its total load.”
David Roberts Feb 25, 2026 ▶ 1:03:19 Volts crossover: Six big energy questions
CATALYST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roberts: Thermal batteries will unlock decarbonization of industrial heat
“I think the reason it's going to be a big enough deal that even normies will hear about it is that it is going to be this kind of skeleton key that unlocks the decarbonization of industrial heating and cooling, which is, you know, one of the big quote unquote …”
David Roberts Nov 3, 2023 ▶ 15:48 The Volts crossover episode
CATALYST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roberts: Substitution and market supply will solve critical mineral shortages long-term
“I just think substitution plus new sources. Over the midterm, mid to longterm, is going to solve this. I agree that there will be years, couple of years, choke points here and there, as we've all, as we've already seen a couple of materials get tight. But I ju…”
David Roberts Nov 3, 2023 ▶ 59:14 The Volts crossover episode
CATALYST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roberts: Autonomous vehicles will become ubiquitous in some cities within 5-10 years
“So anyway, I think within five to 10 years, we will at least see cities where these things become ubiquitous, and then I think at the very least we'll have directionally Answers to some of these things.”
David Roberts Feb 25, 2026 ▶ 7:02 Volts crossover: Six big energy questions
CATALYST Assertion Supported
Roberts: Power-to-heat thermal storage reaches 95% efficiency
“Which gets you way higher efficiency. Like you can get 95% of your heat back out.”
David Roberts Nov 3, 2023 ▶ 19:11 The Volts crossover episode
CATALYST Assertion Supported
Roberts: DOE prioritizes standardized nuclear construction practices over modular hardware
“If you talk to the people at the DOE, the loans office, they'll tell you what needs to be replicated and done the same way over and over again is not necessarily the hardware, the chunks of hardware, it's construction practices. It's the construction sub parts…”
David Roberts Nov 3, 2023 ▶ 32:39 The Volts crossover episode
CATALYST Assertion Supported
Roberts: 25 US states have proposed balcony solar legislation
“25 states had laws either Proposed or announced to be proposed to legalize balcony solar.”
David Roberts Feb 25, 2026 ▶ 1:01:05 Volts crossover: Six big energy questions
GREEN BLUEPRINT Assertion Supported
Roberts: Don't Look Up Broke Netflix Weekly Streaming Records
“It broke records on Netflix. I think it has the most hours streamed for any movie in Netflix history in the space of a week, the week of December 27th, and in terms of total streams, it's the second biggest movie in Netflix history.”
David Roberts Jan 20, 2022 ▶ 3:17 Adam McKay on how to make a movie about climate change
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