The Ledger, every show

“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”

“We're seeing companies like Anthropic at five or six billion dollars of revenue in a single month, which is extraordinary.”

“Mistral, a lot of the other model companies have fully pivoted, like they've already raised their hand, white flag, we don't have the revenues that can support the spend to keep up, right?”

“I think next year really is the year of achievement of a safety standard that allows RoboTaxi to go into action, probably in Q two. They'll pick a couple of cities.”

“I would argue less than 24 months will appear to be silly. I think there's some really interesting investments to be made particularly in the public markets because a lot of these incumbents have incumbent advantages and, you know, they're going to accelerate …”

“Yeah, I'd say 30 to 40% are these companies that were valued over a billion dollars that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.”

“Right now the shortage is so acute, and the willingness to pay from the Frontier Labs is so high because they all recognize they're on the verge of some massive breakthroughs. That they're willing to pay three, four, five X market pricing in order to get at sc…”

“Secondaries over the last couple of years, we're trading at a discount to market. So if we wanted to sell shares in one of our companies, Right, to buyers out there, they were willing to give us 80 cents on the dollar in order for us to get liquid so that we c…”

“This is why the SpaceX IPO is going to trade at 40 to 50 times revenue.”

“And just this morning, Gavin Newsom signed SB two 43, which mandates safety protocols for AI chatbot companions and gives any consumer a private right of action to sue these companies for any emotional harm that comes out of a chatbot.”

“You're going to see the hyperscalers. You're going to see Amazon and Meta and these guys back involved in the stable business.”

“So if you look at that estimate, you know, starting in 20, 27, it basically flatlines 27 through 29 for Nvidia. Right? Less than 10% CAGR in terms of the growth for NVIDIA. They have by 20 29, them doing three hundred and sixty billion in revenue compared to t…”

“But of the 25 sell-side analysts on Wall Street who cover your stock, if I look at the consensus estimate, it basically has your growth flatlining starting in twenty-twenty-seven. Eight percent growth twenty-twenty-seven through twenty-thirty, ok?”

“Jensen Huang reminded us recently that 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China, and they're indeed innovating and not copying.”

“I think that Iconic is going to lead a five billion dollar round into Anthropic at a hundred and seventy billion.”

“I think ChatGPT will cross a billion weeklies, like maybe this year you know, probably this year, I would guess.”

“I think that there's going to be a big Chinese deal done before the year's out.”

“OpenAI is talking about launching an open source model here shortly.”

“Meta has done this interesting structured deal. They're buying 49% of the company. they're paying a thirty billion dollar valuation. So they're paying effectively fifteen billion. They're avoiding regulatory scrutiny. the CEO of scale is going to help lead e…”

“I saw a study that suggested that 40 to 50% of the AI researchers in the United States, our best researchers, are Chinese.”

“The Trump administration just repealed the Biden diffusion rule in May of 25.”

“In the first five months of this year, we would have gotten a trillion dollar deal signed with Saudi in terms of their investment in the United States, another trillion dollars with Qatar. Another trillion dollars with the UAE. Those are all investments into t…”

“In Abu Dhabi, they announced a five gigawatt USAI, you know, it's a UAE USAI campus. It's an incredible architectural campus. It's in collaboration with NVIDIA and OpenAI and Oracle. And think of it as almost like a global Stargate. So to put that perspective,…”

“In the House version of the bill, they renamed it the MAGA account, which stood for Money Account for Growth and Advancement.”

“I do think you're going to see the open AI open source model. I mean, Sam's talked about it many times. I think you're going to see that in the next 30 days or so, certainly by the end of summer, but I would guess sooner rather than later.”

“What we did last week is the US did ban H-twenties going to China”

“And we just unilaterally disarmed around that in a way that doesn't even advantage us against Huawei because their chips are already surpassing the H.”

“I think we're going to probably land somewhere in this kind of five to 10% terrace for the rest of the world. Right. If you add that up, that's going to be somewhere order of magnitude, two hundred billion dollars of tariffs, and you're not going to end up at …”

“There's no, no way that lands, I think at 54%. That's the headline tariffs.”

“I think we're going to land the plane here closer to three or four hundred billion in tariffs, not six or 700, and certainly not a trillion in tariffs.”

“BYD is designing a better car, and CATL is designing a better battery, and their glow, their vertically integrated supply chain around semiconductors no longer is dependent upon NVIDIA for inference. Now they're running inference at DeepSeq on the Ascend nine …”

“We have public companies now reporting, that are reporting their Google organic clicks are down 20 to 40% year to date.”

“X to me is so interesting because they have a platform that is the number one news platform in every country on the planet.”

“Sam and the industry response seems to be tipping more in the direction where we're going to go open to. And my suspicion is you will see that this year you know, out of folks like open AI”

“I do expect that Schumer or a group of members as early as this week is going to file you know, a claim, a lawsuit in federal court where they say that there's a violation of the constitution under article one, section nine, clause seven, where Congress has th…”

“I coordinated some meetings this weekend between him and a lot of CEOs of leading AI companies. And there is a plan by Congress on the one hand to have federal preemption. Clearly this is a matter of interstate commerce. So we should have federal preemption, b…”

“I think in the President's State of the Union address in the first week of March, he's gonna make a commitment to balance the budget in his first term in office.”

“And I think what we can put to bed based upon the conversations we've had, what people are hearing out there, the conversations at CES, there are going to, these investments are going to show up in 20, 25, right?”

“So I actually think if you look at the consensus numbers, they probably would imply that NVIDIA's market share is going down 24 to 25. And I don't think that to be true.”

“My forecast is that Doge is actually, and this administration are actually going to cut a lot out of the budget. And you know, I think that you have the leadership in the House and the Senate, and so if they cut hundreds of billions of dollars out of this budg…”

“I think you're going to see some pretty dramatic breakthroughs this year on coding, right? So think about all the startups that we've seen in the coding space. A lot of them have used prompt injection and other techniques in order to You know, kind of get thes…”

“Cisco, you know, 2000 and we'll show it on the pod, but you know, they peaked at like a 120 PE. Right. And yeah, you know, if you look at the fall off that occurred in revenue and in EBITDA, you know, and then it had 70% compression in the priced earnings mult…”

“By the middle of this year when they released 12.5, it showed a hundred X improvement in miles per critical disengagement.”

“And then with the launch of FSD 13 in the next couple of weeks, we expect another 10 X improvement. In terms of that MPCI”

“Now, I think these things, Bill, are already being planned and built.”

“I would say that search GPT I don't think is going to be the product that gets up to a billion users, and it reminds me, it takes me all the way back to a conversation you and I had maybe in episode four Which is what is going to be the next, you know, GPT mom…”

“On 12.5 and 12.6, we think they get to the point where they're a hundred percent hands free. So it doesn't constantly ding you to grab the wheel and you can really start looking away from the road for longer periods of time.”

“By our analysis, for example, just Amazon, Spent over a hundred billion dollars on AWS invested for over eight years before they saw profitability in that business.”