The Ledger, every show

“If we keep the chip ban in place, here's my biggest concern. I think it dramatically increases the chances that China is forced to move on Taiwan.”

“I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at 80 to a hundred billion dollars in revenue.”

“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”

“GLM 5.2 has watermarks from mythos all over it, right? So we know they were distilling, etc.”

“OpenAI has not blown away their numbers. Google has not blown away their numbers. Like numbers have been good, but the fundamental driver of outperformance in terms of offtake of AI revenues has been Anthropic, which is the fastest growing company in the histo…”

“A data center moratorium would thrust us straight into a recession and high unemployment.”

“OpenAI and Anthropic combined to start the year had three gigawatts of compute. Three combined. They're gonna end the year closer to 10, and end next year closer to 20.”

“We're seeing companies like Anthropic at five or six billion dollars of revenue in a single month, which is extraordinary.”

“He said, Brad, I'm going to three X the company and our headcount may not grow or only grow a little bit. And I said, how? He said, because I'm going to have agents who are reporting to me. I'm not going to have employees who are.”

“China is going to have frontier AI and almost all of the things we do to try to slow them down and stop them are backfiring on the United States.”

“And it almost guarantees a Huawei level belt and road initiative around the world. And the world's going to run on Huawei AI chips, which gives them then the demand That they need to build a frontier AI chip.”

“The message is very clear that I think there's going to be a downsizing of the federal government to the tune of, let's call it, 40 or 50%.”

“Mistral, a lot of the other model companies have fully pivoted, like they've already raised their hand, white flag, we don't have the revenues that can support the spend to keep up, right?”

“I think next year really is the year of achievement of a safety standard that allows RoboTaxi to go into action, probably in Q two. They'll pick a couple of cities.”

“Lots of people talk about the zombie corns, right? We have a thousand companies that are, that were unicorns. A lot of those will never get back there. I've said, 80% of those companies will never get back there.”

“I would argue less than 24 months will appear to be silly. I think there's some really interesting investments to be made particularly in the public markets because a lot of these incumbents have incumbent advantages and, you know, they're going to accelerate …”

“I think it's going to be very difficult for new entrants to be venture backed because to, you know, open AI will continue to get funding because they have this incredible team. They have a hundred million people using the product and paying them for the produc…”

“I think this is going to be a bit of a chat GPT moment for full self-driving, but what it really, it just reminded me of the magic of this moment.”

“Your share likely goes down over time because you have people like ChatGPT you have to compete with. But worse yet, your margin on each of those queries goes down over time. I don't know what it nets out at, 50%, 60%. Now, mind you, for perplexity or co-pilot …”

“They suspect that they'll see a 90% reduction in content moderators over the course of the next year because that work can be more efficiently and better done by AI.”

“I think this is gonna be the most, ah, disruptive moment in labor markets in the history of modern capitalism. Over the course of the next five years.”

“Elon, with the work that he's done at Twitter, right, they reduced headcount by 70, 80%. And the product release cycle is probably gone up by at least 70%, right? It's incredible what they have in the pipeline there, and the fact that they're doing this with, …”

“I don't see an American president, frankly, going to war, nor would I want them to go to war over Taiwan, but I think it's in all of our interests to maintain that status quo”

“Yeah, I'd say 30 to 40% are these companies that were valued over a billion dollars that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.”

“Everybody knows we're not gonna go defend Taiwan. Everybody knows we're not gonna send our military to Ukraine.”

“Cursor was already on a path to go from three billion to ten billion by the end of the year. Cursor plus Grock could be at 10 to twenty billion by the end of the year.”

“And now you have a company at 1.4 trillion that I think if you take a three or four year view, you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation on the Morgan Stanley numbers or on the Elon numbers or whatever.”

“Right now the shortage is so acute, and the willingness to pay from the Frontier Labs is so high because they all recognize they're on the verge of some massive breakthroughs. That they're willing to pay three, four, five X market pricing in order to get at sc…”

“I think all of these companies are gonna compound revenue at well over 30% for the next many years.”

“If these guys end the year over a hundred billion, I think that they're on a revenue Trajectory that they could three to five X again next year.”

“People are speculating that the intelligence gap between that commodity stuff and the frontier stuff is going to collapse to the point that people won't pay for the frontier stuff. There is no evidence of that on the field today. It may develop over the course…”

“So I think there's a chance that over the course of the next two to three years, As we take on much more complex agentic tasks, that the distance between the frontier and everybody else doesn't converge, it actually extends.”

“We told the president, we think we can raise a hundred billion dollars in the first 12 months.”

“We are on a trajectory now that we're going to have over a hundred million of these counts set up over the next decade.”

“If you do the math on this, over the course of the next 15 years, you could have somewhere between two and four trillion dollars added to the accounts of families and kids who would have otherwise had zero.”

“So I think there might be a real consolidation in the AI compute market where you have the hyperscalers on the one hand, and on the other hand, you know, he may emerge as the largest, strongest player in the AI compute market.”

“I think the number on twenty-twenty-seven Is likely closer to 1.5 trillion.”

“Atropic, no way did they think they were going to be anywhere close to breakeven. Right? In, in, in, in this part of the curve. And the reason, like I called it accidental profitability that, you know, people have been talking about that because they want to s…”

“The forecast now that we're going to add another trillion of revenue in just three companies, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, over the next four to five years, ok? Like, not seven companies, three companies, and in half the time, right?”

“Secondaries over the last couple of years, we're trading at a discount to market. So if we wanted to sell shares in one of our companies, Right, to buyers out there, they were willing to give us 80 cents on the dollar in order for us to get liquid so that we c…”

“I actually think the public markets may be shifting back in this direction. And a lot of the companies in our portfolios are now thinking about going public at a billion or three billion or five billion. We had this period of a decade where Andreessen was real…”

“Of course, I believe that optimization will continue, but my hunch is that anthropic and open and these companies will continue to grow right through the optimization because the growth curve on penetration of both enterprise and use case is so steep.”

“If you get on the AI train, if you get in the token flow, you're going to get a above market multiple. If you don't, if you slow down and it looks like every time that computational intelligence improves, Your business gets worse, then I promise you they will …”

“There's not a dark GPU in the world today. ... There's not a dark token in the world today.”

“So it seems to me that that's a more likely outcome, you know Thrive Holdings buying a Kirkland and Ellis and saying, now we're going to, you know, take this thing and AI turbocharge it. I think you're going to see a lot of that out of private equity firms, ou…”

“The wealth tax will be defeated. We will pass the retirement And personal asset protection act as a referendum in California, which will prohibit people from stealing your retirement money or your personal assets that will get passed.”

“And so I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental four to five billion dollars of revenue.”

“This is why the SpaceX IPO is going to trade at 40 to 50 times revenue.”