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20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Lehmann: Screenless dedicated AI inference computers will be in every home
“I think when it comes to AI and personal AI, we may be at a moment in time where there is an opportunity for a new computer, a new type of computer that we may see in every home. A computer that runs your own personal AI on a chip that does not have to be as p…”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 49:51 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Lehmann: AI startups created today will grow larger than tech incumbents
“There will be companies born today that will be larger in the field of AI. Then the companies that are the largest companies that we have today, and they will start as toys and they will start as something that is probably overlooked and something that is not …”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 55:42 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lehmann: Apple Vision Pro will have record high returns and fail
“This will be the first product for Apple where they have more returns than they have on any other metric You. You can plot the graph, and it's since Steve Jobs came back, this is probably the first thing that is a turd.”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 58:38 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lehmann: Every scaled market was profitable for Postmates and DoorDash
“No, I think Tony and I knew from the start that, that this is a tremendous business. If you can scale it and every market that you had at scale was profitable for us, and I know that the same thing was also true for DoorDash.”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 13:14 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Lehmann: Postmates-Uber acquisition returned nearly $5B to shareholders
“We negotiated the deal so well, there was no color on the deal. By the time the deal closed, it was almost five billion dollars.”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 19:45 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Lehmann: Postmates acquisition has not been written off by Uber
“I see no signs of the Postmates acquisition being written off because I think the brand is very strong. It continues to be very strong in LA.”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 25:39 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lehmann: Founders Fund believes board seats offer all downside, no upside
“So at Founders Fund, they obviously believe in this very deeply. We just saw this obviously with Keys leaving there and being somewhere else, they, the belief is that there is very little you can do to actually move the needle, other than writing the check. An…”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 42:43 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lehmann: Smartphones have reached the peak of their societal importance
“So when I call it dead I don't call it dead in the sense of we won't use it anymore, but I think it has reached the peak of its importance in people's lives.”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 54:04 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lehmann: Postmates prioritized deal structure over headline price in Uber merger
“And I think he came out with a number that was around 2.2 or something, and we negotiated it up a little bit, but I didn't want it to push too hard, because the two things that we negotiated for are no breakup, Absolutely no way out and no color on the deal be…”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 21:00 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Andreessen Horowitz passed on Postmates four or five times
“I pitched him four times or five times the entire firm with Postmates. They were smart enough to say no”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 29:20 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Lehmann: High LLM compute costs prevent killer apps beyond chatbots
“I believe that one of the overlooked areas of the current state of AI and the large language models that we're using is that they're still very expensive. And as a result of that, they're dramatically more expensive than a Google search. And as a result of tha…”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 49:08 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Lehmann: Postmates had under $100M cash remaining before turning profitable
“We had just under a hundred million dollars left in cash, and our negative gross profit margin was, I think, single digits.”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 17:56 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lehmann: Major food delivery competitors had sound unit economics and profitability paths
“The fundamentals of, I think, the companies, and I can, I know this for us, but I have some insight in the other players. They were all pretty sound, and by that I mean there was a clear path to profitability. There was a clear understanding of unit economics,…”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 12:25 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Contradicted
Peter Thiel and Brian Singerman were Postmates' only early backers
“When we started out, when Postmates started out, this thing sounded so crazy that the only people that wanted to give us money were Brian Singerman and Peter Thiel.”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 14:06 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Postmates was market leader in California prior to Uber merger
“And with DoorDash being the, clearly the market leader in most of the U.S., but not in California and certain regions that That are very attractive. Where we were the number one.”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 16:53 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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