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INVEST LIKE THE BEST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carnell: Low-dose GLP-1s will likely be appropriate for almost everyone
“I would argue in the future, we could talk about why GLP-ONE's might be appropriate for just about everyone. That's because the reality of it is, as you go from your adolescence to your fifties and sixties, On average, people are going to pick up about five BM…”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 27:10 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carnell: Early proactive medicine will add a decade to expected lifespan
“Each of them has medicines available that if we could get on them early and be proactive about where we're going with our health, they will undoubtedly add an extra decade of life to our expected lifespan and have the potential to take curves that have been de…”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 10:50 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Prediction Held up
Carnell: Upcoming data will show GLP-1s protect against addictive behaviors
“In terms of the addiction data that'll start coming out over the next year or so, you would lose that benefit. Like you would lose the, essentially the free gift of protecting yourself from being addicted to drugs, alcohol, or gambling. And that comes from the…”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 30:31 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Alex Carnell: PCSK9 drugs should eventually surpass GLP-1s in revenue and patients
“And I would argue because it is more asymmetric, it is more in the degree of that free lunch, I would argue that if you just project down the road longer term, this medicine should be far bigger in terms of the number of people that, that are on it and the rev…”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 43:40 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carnell: AI will speed drug breakthrough timelines from 3-5 years to under 2
“The sheer ability to be more comprehensive and complete in our hypothesis set, and then the sheer ability to run Experimentation at a scale that's unprecedented, I think practically means we are going to be able to speed breakthroughs from timelines that would…”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 1:10:04 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Carnell: GLP-1 class will easily surpass $100B in annual revenue
“And I think it's easy now to conclude that this is a class of medicines will easily be in excess of a hundred billion dollars a year in revenue.”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 2:26 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Carnell: 15% to 20% of GLP-1 Demand Flows Through Telehealth and Compounding
“Somewhere between 15 to 20% of the market that you couldn't capture through scripts was actually flowing through groups like hims and hers and other sources where people knew they wanted the benefits and wanted to be proactive about their health.”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 17:58 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Carnell: Oral Wegovy Lifted Weekly New GLP-1 Prescriptions to 300,000
“Prior to the launch of the oral Wagovi, just a few months ago, the GLP one market was moving at about a 200,000, you know, recorded new scripts Per, per per week. 200,000 new people getting on these medicines per week. The most recent data that I looked at thi…”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 19:50 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Supported
Carnell: Novo Nordisk data shows GLP-1s cut cardiovascular risk over 20%
“We've got compelling data right now, ah, out of Novo Nordisk over the last year that basically shows that by taking GLP-I medicines, there is a, you know, north of 20% reduction in our risk of having a heart attack or a stroke. And what I thought was pretty pr…”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 31:04 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Partly supported
Carnell: Biogen and Lilly Alzheimer's Drugs Slow Cognitive Decline by 30%
“And so, today, we've got some amazing medicines that are both Biogen and Eli Lilly, that if you are late in the disease progression of Alzheimer's, You can start to slow the decline. We can slow that decline by about 30%, and so intuitively that just gives us …”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 46:49 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carnell: High-quality multi-cancer early detection tests will emerge within five years
“And I think over the next three to five years, particularly with how AI and the evolution of these tests are really converging to help them to move faster and faster and to be better and better I think we're gonna wake up within the next five years with really…”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 55:47 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Supported
Carnell: AI drug platforms compress model-to-molecule timelines to one month
“What we have today are companies that can go from what would historically been running these massive screens that are incredibly time consuming to doing all of that screening work in silico and can go from model to molecule and what would have taken a couple o…”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 1:11:16 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Supported
Carnell: FDA brought in AI to review sponsor filings in record time
“Marty brought in an AI system to help them be able to comb through the thousands of pages of filings that sponsors behind medicines have to submit in record time versus the, you know, armies of people that would have to comb through that and the days and days …”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 1:19:54 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Supported
Carnell: Existing medicines can reduce middle-aged cardiovascular risk below 10%
“Most middle-aged men and women walking around have somewhere between a 30 and a 50% probability of having a heart attack and a stroke sometime between the time that they turn 40 and the time that they turn 80. And to me, that's tragic because we have the medic…”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 6:54 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Supported
Carnell: Eli Lilly data shows GLP-1s cut diabetes progression by 94%
“We've got amazing GLP-ONE medicines that I started with that from clear data out of Eli Lilly show a 94% reduction in your risk of moving from being pre-diabetic to diabetic.”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 7:53 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Contradicted
Carnell: Direct-to-consumer channels drive most GLP-1 adoption today
“What we're seeing with GLP One Medicines and what we're seeing that the direct-to-consumer side of that is driving most of the adoption today”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 33:24 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Supported
Alex Carnell: PCSK9 drugs reduce cardiovascular event risk by 20% to 25%
“And so in patients that have previously had a heart attack or stroke, we can reduce that risk by over 20% in the future. And for people that are at high risk of having a heart attack or a stroke, the medicines that are approved and on the market today can lowe…”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 36:50 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Supported
Alex Carnell: Genetic PCSK9 deficiency reduces cardiovascular disease risk by 88%
“With longitudinal studies over 15 years, the fact that they were genetically deficient in the production of the PCSK-IX protein led to them having an 88% reduction in the risk of ever developing cardiovascular disease.”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 38:39 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Supported
Alex Carnell: PCSK9 medicines lower LDL cholesterol by 50%
“PCSK nine medicines are amazing because what they do is they today can lower our bad cholesterol, that LDL cholesterol by 50%.”
Alex Carnell Apr 21, 2026 ▶ 36:25 GLP-1s, Peptides, and The Trillion-Dollar Health Revolution · Invest Like The Best
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