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Domingos: Data Network Effects Create Major Competitive Moats for Machine Learning Incumbents
“There's this network effect of data where if you have a good product and people start using it, then you have a lot of use this, for example, you know, how Google has built up such an unassailable position in search, right? Is like you use their search engine.…”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 30:55 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Domingos: Consumer Adoption of AI Will Force Doctors to Adapt
“And once, for example, these machine learning systems become more widely available as they are becoming, people will start using them and the doctors will be forced to catch up.”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 33:37 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Domingos: Machines Will Handle Most Decisions While Humans Retain Key Choices
“Ultimately I think most things will be done by machines, except the really key decisions that people will always want to retain, even though they make them with advice from the machines.”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 36:55 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Domingos: AI Has Not Yet Achieved Continuous Recursive Self-Improvement Loops
“Having said that, this is still quite limited in what it can do, and it's not, we don't have enough at this point for this thing to set up this loop where it just keeps getting better and better. That hasn't happened yet”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 41:12 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Domingos: Machines Will Build Far More Complex Models Than Humans Can
“So what's going to happen is that the machines are going to be able to learn much more complex models of the phenomena than human beings ever could, and this is good, right? Because with those better models, we can make better decisions. With a better model of…”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 42:34 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Domingos: Machine Learning Algorithms Will Get Better at Explaining Themselves
“I think what's going to happen is that partly the learning algorithms are going to have better, to get better at explaining to people what they're doing.”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 42:59 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
Domingos: Human Competition Will Endure Despite Superhuman Computers
“I think more likely what will happen is that people will still be playing each other, even though the best is our computers in the same way that, you know, there's race cars that go way faster than people. But we still have people doing, you know, in the Olymp…”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 49:51 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
Domingos: Autonomous Vehicles Only Need to Beat Humans, Not Reach Perfection
“The cars don't have to be perfect before we start using them instead of people. They just have to get better than people.”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 53:26 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Domingos: Symmetry Group Theory Could Spark Machine Learning's Sixth Paradigm
“Because I think this is something that has not been exploited in machine learning and might be the origin of that sixth paradigm.”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 59:04 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Domingos: Major ML Algorithms Are Mathematically Proven Universal Function Approximators
“And there are several major such algorithms today that have mathematical proofs that if you give them enough data, they can learn any function.”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 7:38 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
Domingos: Understanding Learning Algorithms Differs From Understanding Their Output Models
“Having said that, you know, we, the machine learning researchers and the data scientists, we actually have a good understanding of how the learning algorithm itself works. You know, what is it that it does to learn, and how could you make it learn better? And …”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 9:10 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
Domingos: Deploying Machine Learning Causes Subjects to Adapt Adversarially
“So what happens whenever you deploy a machine learning system is that the people who are being modeled Change their behavior in response to the system. Sometimes in benign ways, but sometimes in adversarial ways.”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 27:50 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Domingos: Netflix and IBM Watson Already Use Basic Forms of Meta-Learning
“And this type of meta learning in certain basic forms is actually already widely used today. Like for example, Netflix uses this type of thing to recommend movies. It doesn't just use one learning algorithm. It uses a whole bunch of them. And then another algo…”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 40:52 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Partly supported
Domingos: IBM's Deep Blue Used Classical Search With No Machine Learning
“So Deep Blue was very much classic AI. There was no machine learning involved. Deep Blue essentially, it was just doing a very a clever and very extensive search for the best moves to make.”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 45:02 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Domingos: AlphaGo Combined Classical AI Search With Deep Learning Neural Networks
“And so what DeepMind did with AlphaGo was to actually combine some of the classic AI, you know, game search with deep learning, with this type of you know, neural network approach to do the evaluation.”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 46:56 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Domingos: AlphaGo Trained on 30 Million Human Moves Before Self-Play
“So AlphaGo, the first thing that AlphaGo did was it learned from all the existing, the entire existing database of Go matches played by human masters. That was the first thing it did was learn from those, right? Thirty million moves or something like that is t…”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 47:47 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Domingos: AI Self-Play Dates Back to Arthur Samuel's 1950s Checkers System
“This is actually a very, very old idea in machine learning. It's one of the oldest ideas. It goes all the way back to the fifties. And this researcher at IBM called Arthur Samuel, who actually wrote the first machine learning system to learn to play a game. An…”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 48:13 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
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