Everything Peter Walker said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Carta Data: Smallest Seed Rounds Graduate to Series A Less Frequently
“The general gist of it was that if you raise a small seed round, that is less highly correlated with your ability to raise an A round. So it looks to be that the smallest, and there's a bell curve here where, you know, at the smallest seed rounds tend to make …”
Carta's Walker: Anxiety Around AI Gross Margins Is Overdone
“The debate about margins in this AI world, I think is candidly a little overdone, like pretty early. There's every indication that the economics might continue to change.”
Walker: Current Series A Rounds Average $14M–$15M at $75M Post-Money
“Like, you're talking 14, fifteen million dollars raised. You're talking seventy-five million or so post-money valuations on that.”
Walker: Median Series A valuation in Bay Area is $85M post-money
“Like, you know, the median Series A in the Bay right now is eighty-five million, post-money. The median in Austin is probably more like 65. The median in D.C., probably more like 60, and on down the line.”
Walker: Founders outside the Bay Area should visit to fundraise, not relocate
“I don't think you should move, and I do think you should visit, is the way that I've been telling founders lately.”
Walker: Seed-to-Series A 12-Month Graduation Rate Has Rebounded to 10%
“You've got the companies that raised about a year ago. So Q one of 20, 25 or so, how many of them have gotten to series A so far? It's something like 10 to 11%, which in a year is actually pretty good. It's much better than it was in 20, 22 or 23, where it was…”
Walker: Runner-Up Startups Face Compounding Risks at Decacorn Scale
“I think historically, even though we said they were winner take all, we never actually believed it. Like you can do pretty well as number two. Now I think that is an open question, especially at the scale that you need to go back again to the Decacorn plus kin…”
Walker: Median Seed Company on Carta Has Four Non-Founder Employees
“We're seeing like the median seed stage company on Carta has four employees, not counting the founders.”
Walker: Over 35% of New Startups on Carta Are Solo-Founded
“36 or 37% of the companies on Carta that joined us this year are solo founded. A lot of those companies will end up not being venture backed. So the venture backed percentage, it's probably more like a quarter maybe.”
Walker: Hiring a startup's first three engineers has never been harder
“I think that like, I think hiring the number one, number two, number three engineer of the business has almost never been harder. Because the alternatives are so obviously like hitting you over the head. If you can be a founding engineer at a startup, why coul…”
Walker: Many AI startups are quietly being built for early acquisition
“And I think it's, there's a lot of acquisitions happening right now, mostly for AI talent. So I think there's, candidly, I think there's a lot of companies quietly, not saying it, that are quietly being built to get acquired earlier.”
Walker: AI dominance in early-stage VC crowds out other opportunities
“One, because it is sort of such a dominant theme of early stage investing now that it seems to be crowding out other investable opportunities to be quite honest.”
Walker: Series A B2B software median ARR jumps from $1M to $3M
“Insofar as we can tell, if you take that core B to B software company, you know, used to be, you have a million bucks in ARR. You can start talking about a series A. Now it's three on median and the top end is more like seven or eight.”
Walker: Mega funds boom while emerging managers face a struggling separate market
“The biggest venture funds in the planet are fundraising Better than they ever have. But it's almost as though there's two separate venture markets. There's the emerging manager, smaller fund market, and then there's the massive manager, mega fund market. One i…”
Walker: Scaling to a $300M fund breaks seed-stage investment models
“You cannot invest into the same companies that you were investing into at a fifty million dollar fund at a three hundred million dollar fund in the same way.”
Walker: Specialist venture funds struggle to build enduring firms beyond fund two
“So I always felt like the specialist funds might do better in fund one or fund two, but making a firm out of a specialist thesis is very difficult.”
Walker: 8 to 10 famous companies dominate 80% of VC secondary volume
“That's probably 80% of the total transacted volume in secondaries for venture these days is eight to 10 names that everybody already knows.”
Walker: Median Series A startup headcount plummets from 25 to 16 employees
“You know, the median, so if you look at Series A companies on Carta, the ones that raised Series A in twenty-twenty-one, they had 25 people working for them. The ones that, that raised Series A in twenty-twenty-five had 16, and by the end of this year we think…”
Walker: Seed deal volume will decline in 2025 despite higher invested capital
“When you look at the data, yes, there's more capital being invested, but the number of rounds at seed stage for us this year is actually going to go down.”
Walker: Lowest-quartile seed startups reach Series A half as often
“The companies that didn't had a big, big change were the lowest valued companies. So the lowest quartile, if you were raising a seed round and it's in the zero to call it 25th percentile of valuation, so on the very low end, those companies made it to series A…”
Walker: Most Founder Inquiries Focus on Non-AI Startup Viability
“The conversation that I'm having more than any other with founders today is if I'm not in this super hot quartile, in this super hot AI circle, do I have a chance? There's like a, I wouldn't call it fatalism, but there's a definite strong negativity or sense t…”
Walker: SAFEs Dominate All Startup Fundraising Rounds Under $4 Million
“Like safes are the dominant way to get money into a business. Now, anything under four million dollars is dominated by safes. Where it used to be, you'd start on safes and then you'd raise a seed, but if you're raising two and a half, three, four million dolla…”
Walker: Series A startup headcount dropped from 25 to 16-17 employees
“Series A, 20, 21, you had 25 people working for the company, full-time equity holding employees working for the company. Now you probably have 17. 16.”
Walker: AI/ML engineer pay rose up to 40% in 18 months
“Actually, AI ML engineers over the last 18 months on Carta, their pay packages have risen between 25 and 40%.”