Everything Mark Baumgartner said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Baumgartner: Active Management Will See a Golden Resurgence in Coming Years
“I'd specifically point out that I think active management is going to have a golden resurgence here in the coming years.”
Baumgartner: Weyerhaeuser Pension Outperformed Yale Endowment Over 20 Years
“And fast forward 20 years, that portfolio, which was levered two to one and used alternative investments, which in the eighties and nineties were something inconceivably risky to most, that portfolio outperformed Yale on a An absolute and a risk adjusted basis…”
Baumgartner: IAS endowment was 100% alternatives, 80% hedge funds
“So the strategy by and large was in place, and it was A hundred percent alternatives. That portfolio was in place, that strategy. It was 80% hedge funds and 20% private markets funds, mostly venture.”
Baumgartner: Markets Are Turbulent Nonlinear Systems, Not Just Volatile
“When you incorporate behavior and psychology into markets, the best description is not something that's volatile, but it's something that's turbulent. And turbulence is different than volatility because it's a nonlinear dynamical system, right? You see phase t…”
Baumgartner: Allocators lack time for manager meetings during rapid crises
“In a time like this where things are rapidly changing and we're going to be required to communicate with our committees and asset owners, time is too precious to have a manager meeting.”
Baumgartner: IAS targets high-risk hedge funds, not bond substitutes
“Well, we are targeting very high potential return hedge funds. High risk hedge funds. We're not looking for three percent fixed income substitute. We're looking for Even more than equities and even less equity beta and even more diversification.”
Baumgartner: Inflows to investment strategies simultaneously lower returns and increase risk
“I do think that edge goes away, and people figure things out, and money piles into strategies, and when capital flows in anywhere, it wrecks. Not just future returns, but the risks go up as well. So getting dinged twice, you're getting a lower expected return,…”
Baumgartner: Best Risk Managers Underperformed In 2013-2018 Bull Market
“The people who actually have not done as well, in my view, in the last five years, have been some of the best investors and definitely some of the best risk managers in the world, period.”
Baumgartner: Bridgewater is primary source for macroeconomic framework
“Obviously Bridgewater is source number one for me and the way the economic machine works and the way we think about things.”
Baumgartner: Form independent views before consulting outside experts in a crisis
“If you get started too soon on talking with others without thinking yourself, I think it's hard to utilize that information, so put the stake in the ground, spend the time to really get a sense of what's going on, and by the way, you can be useful to folks if …”
Baumgartner: Stress in private credit and high yield creates liquidity-provider opportunities
“Obviously with spreads blowing out the way they have opportunities in private credit, distressed, high yield are interesting. And there's enough stress that looks like it's been created in that market to make it attractive for liquidity providers. Wouldn't say…”
Baumgartner: Travel and airline strategies offer double their pre-crisis expected return
“There are opportunities, especially in travel and leisure sector. It's been very, very affected. And in airlines, I There are some interesting strategies that probably have double the expected return that they had back in February, possibly double the expected…”
Baumgartner: Unconventional Success Is Often Dismissed As Reckless Or Lucky
“The worst thing is to be different and fail, but the next worst thing is to be different and succeed because then you are a cowboy or your risk take, or you're just lucky”
Baumgartner: IAS must target 8%+ return with max 20% drawdown
“We've got to target an eight percent, perhaps higher return, just to keep our head above water, but yet we can't afford to have more than a 15% or 20% drawdown because we'll never recover. Our spend rate would be too much.”
Baumgartner: IAS is pushing private markets allocation to 25-35%
“We've decided that we can afford to have more illiquidity in the portfolio. So we've slowly pushed that allocation out Toward 25, 30, and maybe even 35% in private markets with a very high focus on managing those cash flows and liquidity.”
Baumgartner: IAS achieved median peer returns with only 2% max drawdown
“We've had median returns. Some people say, well, that's just junk. No, we've done it with so much less risk. We've achieved it with the maximum drawdown in the portfolio has been two percent.”
Baumgartner: IAS plans to increase risk budget to 6-7% volatility
“What we're saying is, well, let's take a five percent risk budget, which is about half of what we think peers have, and let's move that to six or seven.”
Baumgartner: IAS's $1B size enables investing in esoteric niches
“I think the idea for the Institute is one of our other competitive advantages is we're smaller. We're about a billion dollars. We're, we can Afford to be in smaller, more esoteric, more unknown things that larger endowments and foundations might not be interes…”
Baumgartner: Top PE and VC firms possess structural franchise power
“And the ones with persistent good performance and venture as well, they're incredibly powerful businesses. They're franchises. They have access to deals. They have all sorts of levers of power. They control their suppliers and they control their customers, rig…”
Baumgartner: Institute for Advanced Study has liquidity to deploy in crisis
“We're fortunate through some luck and some planning to come in with a reasonable liquidity position, and so we're here to the ground to look for ways of putting that to work.”
Baumgartner: IAS Endowment Is Heavily Weighted to Hedge and Private Strategies
“Yes, we have a portfolio that Currently is heavily weighted to hedge funds and hedge strategies and private markets.”
Baumgartner: Ford Foundation shifted $8B of $10B into new strategies post-2008
“And then what we did over the next five years was to shift that portfolio more toward an endowment like portfolio. We built out the investment team there. We shifted probably eight of the ten billion at that point into different strategies or different manager…”
Baumgartner: 2014–2018 equity returns doubled consensus forecasts while volatility halved
“Back in 2013, 20 14, you've got bears projecting low returns... You've got folks like Goldman and JP Morgan, and the folks who publish capital market expectations, and you see, eh, equities, seven percent annualized return, 15% vol... Now, you fast forward fiv…”
Baumgartner: IAS models 8% return at 5% volatility
“We have an expected return of eight percent on a volatility of around five. That's how we model our overall portfolio. We've achieved eight percent on less than two percent volatility.”