Everything John Toomey said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Toomey: Private Equity Could Expand Two to Three Times and Stay Healthy
“I think this industry could be two, three times the size than it is today, and still be healthy and functioning and lots of flows of capital.”
Toomey: Private Capital Markets Are Undergoing a Historic Structural Transformation
“We are witnessing the creation of a private capital markets, kind of not dissimilar to what we saw a 150 years ago underneath the old oak tree or whatever tree it was down at the corner of wall and broad.”
Toomey: Broad Buyout Valuations Declined Only 5% in 2022
“And frankly, we didn't see that underlying in company performance continue to be strong even in the second half of the year. And we saw, I'd say, low single digit declines even at year end. For the broad buyout market, probably plus or minus five percent.”
Toomey: Crossover and Mutual Fund Tech Managers Saw 25% Valuation Drops
“And I think certain managers, particularly the crossover investors, the mutual fund investors that publish their company valuations every quarter now, they really invested into that and took those valuations up to full value. That's where we saw the greatest d…”
Toomey: Longer PE Holding Periods Will Delay Realizations
“I think you'll see an elongation of the holding period. So when you look back and you saw what happened, again, it's not the same as the global financial crisis, but there's some lessons learned there. I think when managers are sitting on investments that are …”
Toomey: PE Managers Are Fully Equitizing Deals to Refinance Later
“We've seen managers essentially fully equitize their companies today. With the view that they're just going to refinance out in a better market instead of taking it as much or at the same level of debt that they've used.”
Toomey: Venture and Asia require more diversification than North American buyout
“You probably should have more diversification in venture in Asia than you do in the North American buyout market because the dispersion of returns that our QIS team has shown over the 40 years of data that we have says you do want to grab some of that right ha…”
Toomey: Covenant-light debt benefits both equity holders and debt lenders
“I think cov light or no financial covenant debt is a beautiful thing for the equity. And I actually think it's good for the lenders too, and allows you to ride out any period of volatility.”
Chinese venture capital market will eventually match US in size
“It's, if it's not yet, it will be as big as the US market, but it really hadn't started yet.”
Generalist relationship managers inherently overvalue their own GPs' deals and secondaries
“The person who was on that point on the manager relationship, everything that that manager, this is the best set co-investment opportunity. We've got to buy this secondary at one Oh five because they're such a great manager. And so really from the beginning, W…”
In secondaries, high-quality assets at par generate higher returns than deep discounts
“Yes, there's a benefit that comes with buying an asset at a discount, but you get that discount once. And if you buy the right asset managed by the right manager, that manager and those assets can create gains year after year after year until they get realized…”
Private equity capitalization could eventually reach 20% to 30% of public markets
“Tell me why it can't be 20% relative to the size of the Publix, or 30%. Because I think what has happened in the last couple of decades is almost a complete development, and you're seeing this on the credit side, of a completely independent private capital mar…”
Pitching an investment as 'good risk-reward' is a euphemism for below-bar returns
“It is shrouded in what I described as this is a great risk-reward opportunity, because you, of course, have to evaluate the risk as well. But when I hear that, I actually believe that's a euphemism for this is a below the bar return.”
Toomey: Private equity is the only asset class driving excess pension returns
“And if anything, it's the only place over the last decade where That has contributed the excess return when they're trying to meet their eight percent or seven and a half or seven percent total asset return. They're not getting returns in a lot of places, and …”
Toomey: HarbourVest data shows positive correlation between strong ESG programs and returns
“Our data suggests that's not the case. There's actually a positive correlation between managers with great ESG programs and the returns that they generate because they think about this, and it is good for the business, it is good for The underlying company's l…”
Toomey: Market Faces Systemic Stress Rather Than Imminent Crisis
“I would describe it as I see a lot of stress in the system. I wouldn't say that we see crisis looming on the horizon, but rising interest rates, particularly at the rate that it occurred, some of the areas where you're starting to see pop up, like in the banki…”
Toomey: Private Equity Use of Lines of Credit Will Pull Back
“What I think we're more likely to see is I think the industry by and large did use lines of credit much more liberally than they ever have, and I do think that's going to pull back.”
Toomey: Venture Debt Market Faces a Retrenchment
“I think the venture debt business, the same thing, you'll have a bit of a retrenchment there.”
Toomey: 2004–2006 Buyout Vintages Had Lower IRRs Than 2007–2008 Vintages
“When you look back, people think the oh seven, oh eight vintage years were the trough years in the bio world, and in fact, they weren't. When you look at the top quartile returns, they got to over two X. Almost 20% IRRs. Median returns were one, eight, one, ni…”
Toomey: PE Managers Will Face Broken Auctions and Hold Assets
“I think you'll see broken auctions. So managers will bring an asset to market, you know, when they're holding it at a certain multiple and they have certain price expectations. When those price expectations aren't met, they'll sit on it.”
Toomey: Secondaries and Co-Investments Will Drive Early PE Price Discovery
“The secondary market, the continuation fund market, the recap market, the co-investment market, those are all areas of the market with pretty sophisticated investors. That are in the business of creating returns for their investors, of which, you know, how the…”
Toomey: Secondaries Market Is Exceptionally Undercapitalized Relative to Annual Deal Flow
“When you look at the amount of dry powder and secondaries relative to the annual deal flow and you compare it to literally every other part of private equity, it's pretty extraordinary how undercapitalized it is despite all the large size funds that are being …”
Toomey: GP-Led Continuation Funds Face Greater Resistance at Discounts Than LP Sales
“It's a lot easier for an asset owner to decide to sell a portfolio of LP interests at 80 because they have a particular objective in mind than it is for a general partner to convince their existing investors to take the option of selling at 80 cents on the dol…”
Toomey: Continuation Funds Face Headwinds Until Secondary Pricing Reaches 90s
“And I think until we start to see a little bit more normalization of the bid ask spread at numbers, at least in the nineties, not necessarily a part, I think you'll see some headwinds in the continuation fund market in the near term.”