Jay Goldberg
Investment Partner, Snowcloud Capital. On 1 show, 1 appearance. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
investoranalystfounderauthor@jaygoldberg ↗LinkedIn ↗digitstodollars.com ↗
Jay Goldberg runs D2D Advisory and the semiconductor analysis platform Digits to Dollars, advising companies on finance and corporate strategy. He previously led strategy and corporate development at Qualcomm and Peregrine Semiconductor and worked as a research analyst at Deutsche Bank.
1shows
1appearances
28statements
11resolved
6supported
2contradicted
55%fully supported
Everything Jay Goldberg said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Goldberg: Only 'one and a half' foundries can produce leading-edge chips
“There's really only one and a half that can really produce at the leading edge, right? TSMC in Taiwan is just way ahead of everybody else. Samsung is kind of the half. They're close, but not quite there. And then there's nobody else.”
Goldberg: Qualcomm's Snapdragon processors trail Apple silicon by two years
“And so you look at the current Snapdragon applications processes that Qualcomm makes, it's, I don't know, it's two years behind where Apple's A series is or N series is.”
Goldberg: Cost per transistor is increasing in many cases
“The cost per transistor is actually going up in a lot of cases”
Goldberg: TSMC's Arizona fab will lag leading-edge chips by half a generation
“And now I think that's actually gonna be a real plant in Arizona. And I think it's gonna have decent capacity enough to sort of satisfy the U.S. Military's needs and Apple's needs. And it will be, I don't think it'll be even a generation behind. I think it'll …”
Goldberg: TSMC's Arizona fab will remain dependent on Taiwan's expertise
“It doesn't mean the U.S. Actually can do advanced chips because that plant is going to be entirely dependent on expertise and knowledge base from the mothership in Taiwan.”
Goldberg: China has failed to copy TSMC by poaching personnel
“And China for years has been trying to poach people out of TSMC to come build their foundries. And it just hasn't worked. Like you, it's something about the whole body of knowledge that's just too, you just can't copy and paste.”
Goldberg: SMIC remains as far behind TSMC as a decade ago
“The most advanced Chinese foundry, SMIC, Shanghai Manufacturing, is still as far behind TSMC as it was 10 years ago, if not further behind.”
Goldberg: China has produced almost nothing in semiconductor manufacturing equipment
“Their attempts to replicate companies like ASML and LAM and build their own equipment for manufacturing semis has also produced almost nothing.”
Goldberg: RISC-V will probably capture automotive and IoT instead of mobile
“And I think that's going to have important implications, probably not for mobile or compute, But for all the other things that are getting chips built into them, cars, especially cars, home devices, internet of things, all of that is probably going to end up i…”
Goldberg: Intel fell off the Moore's Law curve around 2012–2014
“And Intel dropped the ball. And we could spend a whole hour talking about Intel and their problems, but yeah, they are, they were once the definition of Moore's law. I mean, it's named after Gordon Moore. He used to be CEO of Intel. He was the founder. And the…”
Goldberg: Designing custom chips yields no direct cost savings versus buying
“And if you actually do the math and sort of figure out cost, cost of designing your own chip versus buying from someone else, it turns out that there is no cost savings directly. You only want to design a chip that conveys some form of strategic advantage, rig…”
Goldberg: Only about 100 non-semiconductor companies can design custom chips
“There's only about a hundred companies in the world that really can design their own chips other than chip companies, right? It's mostly the big internet companies and the big industrial companies.”
Goldberg: Moore's Law has slowed from 18 months to five years
“Moore's law is slowing, right? It is not 18 months anymore. It's five years.”
Goldberg: Chip shrinking remains possible for roughly another 10 years
“There's still, you know, a good, I don't know, 10 years of shrinking possible.”
Goldberg: Most Chinese fabless chip companies will not survive
“It's going to shrink. Most of those companies won't survive, but enough will that there's something interesting going on there.”
Goldberg: New regional semiconductor plants build legacy nodes, not leading-edge chips
“If you dig into the details of what's actually getting built, it's not a leading edge plant. It's not, you know, it's not a three nanometer plant like TSMC is building on. It's a 180 nanometer plant, which is what? 15 years old, 20 years old. And you know, we …”
Goldberg: Cruise autonomous vehicles contain $10,000 to $20,000 in chips
“Because if you look at sort of the autonomous cars that are out there today, like I live in San Francisco and there's autonomous cruise cars driving around. They have 10, 20,000 dollars of chips in them, right?”
Goldberg: Tailoring custom ASICs to software stacks yields superior performance gains
“Chips exist to run software, and if you control your software stack, building a chip that's tailor-made, a special purpose chip, we'll call them ASIC, tailor-made for that software stack, you can get performance gains over general purpose compute, like a sort …”
Goldberg: Computing is swinging back from general-purpose to specialized chips
“I mean, it's a pendulum, and we've swung very, very far to general purpose compute, and now we're swinging back towards more specific purpose type chips.”
Goldberg: China spent $100B to $200B on semiconductor subsidies over ten years
“And they have spent a hundred billion dollars, two hundred billion dollars over the last 10 years subsidizing the growth of their semiconductor industry.”
Goldberg: China has roughly 2,000 fabless chip design companies
“There are probably 2000 legitimate fabless design chip companies in China today.”
Goldberg: 90% of annual chip volume uses trailing-edge 80nm+ processes
“The number of chips produced every year, or the wafers produced every year, 90% of them are what we would call trailing edge processes, you know, 80 nanometer and up.”
Goldberg: True vehicle autonomy requires $1,000 to $2,000 leading-edge chip systems
“All of that has to shrink down. And the only way to sort of be able to deliver true autonomy is sort of a 1002 thousand dollar system, which is almost certainly going to have to have advanced edge, advanced process chips in them.”
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Jay's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ANOTHER PODCASTLEDGER | Investment Partner, Snowcloud Capital | 1 | 28 | 55% 6/11 | full record on Another Podcast → |