Everything Greg Jensen said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Jensen: Very high chance humanity fails at superhuman AI development
“We only get one chance to develop an intelligence greater than us, and if you do it wrong, it's the end of things, and there's a very, very good chance we're going to do it wrong, just judging by how rarely we as a species get things right the first time.”
Jensen: Bond sell-off and rate rise will exceed market expectations
“I believe that's setting up a much bigger bond sell-off and interest rate rise than the markets are expecting.”
Jensen: Policymakers will accept inflation over a deflationary market crash
“I think policymakers are much more likely to take inflation than a deflationary crash at this point. And there's so much that can be done in society by distributing the wealth via those mechanisms. So I think you're likely to see that.”
Jensen: Negative real yields are priced into both equities and bonds
“The world is bad for investors going forward. It's been great looking backwards. So take that, but recognize going forward, the real yield priced into everything is bad. People look at the real yield in bonds and say, Why would I want a negative one, negative …”
Jensen: Speculative companies lacking cash flows will get hammered if rates rise
“And the companies that may not have cash flows are extremely reliant on the current levels of liquidity and really low interest rates. Where if interest rates change, that phenomenon could change quite quickly, and those companies will get hammered.”
Jensen: Negative real yields make government spending worthwhile despite poor execution
“You have a negative real yield world borrowing to do things that are good for society. You don't even have to be very good at it when the real yield is negative. You can be pretty crappy at deciding what's good for society and it's still worth it.”
Jensen: Mexican peso and Brazilian real face extremely bullish macro setup
“I think the Mexican peso, the Brazilian real, what you're seeing in those countries and much of the emerging world relative to the developed world is much more traditional monetary policy, traditional fiscal policy. So while you had a big push of fiscal during…”
Jensen: Bridgewater's individual trades only have a 55% win rate over 12 months
“Our ideas are generally in the 5545 range, where our positions have something like a 55 45 chance of being right at any given one in, let's say, a given 12 month period.”
Jensen: Household wealth relative to income has reached record levels
“Wealth for households, as an example, are six times income, way beyond anything it's ever been, and wealth across the world relative to incomes are at record levels.”
Jensen: US Corporate Value Currently Equals 26 Years of Earnings
“If you took what it would take to pay off the corporate debt plus the corporate equity value in U.S. Equities, you're talking about 26 years if it was like a family business and you're trying to pay off your parents as you inherit this business, it would take …”
Jensen: Central banks will continue making cash an unattractive asset
“And I think we're very far from that scenario today. I think they're going to continue to make cash a terrible asset and drive up The real economy through that process.”
Jensen: The British pound is in a dangerous and unattractive situation
“The pound is particularly unattractive in our minds about payment situation. The amount of money that's being printed, the long-term growth prospects are all leading to quite dangerous situation there.”
Jensen: Bridgewater's Pure Alpha has made money in 80% of years
“If you look at bridge orders, Pure Alpha as an example, you know, we've made money in 80% of years.”
Jensen: Bridgewater's Trade Win Rate Fell to 37% During COVID
“We hadn't had the perfect storm of, we averaged that 55, 45, and it ranges from eighty-twenty, the best years, and forty-sixty, the worst years, and then in COVID, we were probably about 37.”
Jensen: Nominal GDP growth will likely significantly exceed current interest rates
“The likelihood that the nominal GDP is going to be significantly higher than the current interest rate is quite high, and there are ways to isolate the companies who are likely to have profit growth and revenue growth reasonably in line with nominal GDP growth…”
Jensen: Japanese equities offer superior risk-reward due to policy support
“I particularly like the setup in Japanese equities because more than any other country, the policy response to any downturn will be to buy equities directly. And at the same time, the prices are not nearly as expensive as in other places. So I think while they…”
Jensen: Bridgewater hires botanists, historians, and poker players alongside economists
“If you look at Bridgewater, we hire people with a wide variety, botanists, history majors, to economics majors, to poker players, like a wide range, because looking at the world and understanding it, it's not a pure math puzzle. It's not a pure philosophy puzz…”
Jensen: Ray Dalio still works 80 to 90 hours a week
“To this day, it's 80 hours, 90 hours focused on what's happening in the world and how to think about it and how to build a great company.”
Jensen: Bridgewater changes roughly 10% of its investment processes each year
“So I'd say on the average year, kind of 10% change in our processes as a result of what we learn on an, in an average year. And we kind of measure ourselves against that.”
Jensen: Bridgewater adopts 3 to 5 new systematic research projects semiannually
“Every six months, We organize about 10 to 15 projects that we expect are the best ideas out of the things that we've been worrying about to impact our process, and of those, something like three to five come out to be good enough ideas that they become part of…”