Everything Dave Brizano said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Targeting zero defaults means credit managers are leaving yield on the table
“If we did not have any defaults in our portfolio and we have that yield advantage, then we're not pushing the yield advantage as much as we should, because we should push it to, we have a couple defaults still in line with the market or less, but if we have no…”
Credit is simpler than equities because returns don't require market agreement
“I think it's harder for the equity investors because they identify a stock and they make that purchase and then they hope the next day or shortly thereafter, the rest of the market agrees with their investment thesis and buys that stock. So that trades up. If …”
Leveraged loan defaults may soon exceed bond defaults, reversing historical norms
“So we think there's a probability that the default rate in the loan market might exceed that in the bond market. And the recovery rate in the loan market might be lower than that of the bond market, which is different than what it was in the past.”
Institutional bias against CCC debt leaves 10% to 15% as genuine opportunities
“Now, all triple C's are not opportunities. In fact, we believe most of them are not good, but we believe That a certain percentage, 10, 15% of Triple C universe could be real opportunity because of the bias against considering them as viable investments.”
Allocators should require credit managers to have pre-2008 market downturn experience
“My advice would be to anybody that's looking to hire a manager is to really put a premium on experience. People that actually have been in the market before 2008. There are a lot of managers out there that tout their experience. I've been in investing for 1015…”
For 15 years, private equity generated outsized returns off of lenders' backs
“Over the last 10 to 15 years, the private equity world was making money off lenders' backs. Lenders were getting relatively low returns by historical and current standards, and that return that we were not getting was going to the private equity firms or their…”
High-yield default losses average around 2% after historical 40% recoveries
“And in fact, the recovery rate is in the forties. So if you look at a default rate of three, four percent, and if you get close to half your money back afterwards, your loss is like two percent.”
Well over 95% of high-yield bond market returns come from yield
“So when one factors all that together, you observe that well north of 95% of the return profile in the high yield market is the yield.”
Agencies routinely rating 6x leveraged companies as CCC creates artificial yield premiums
“But if a company has six times leverage, typically it will be rated triple C by the agencies. It's just The convention , they have an impossible job of trying to put a lot of risk factors in just a handful of buckets. So one is leverage and that triple C ratin…”
Companies can survive two or three simultaneous challenges, but five is overwhelming
“If there's too many, it can be overwhelming, and it's not a bright line test, but if there are five challenges that you can identify, that's typically too many. A company can maybe handle two or three, four, you're getting there, and then after that, it's just…”
Investment performance alone is insufficient; fund managers must actively market themselves
“As a young person, I thought if you just performed well, did a good job, or had good investment results, people would recognize that and reward you for it, and in reality, you gotta advocate for yourself, and you gotta hire sales and marketing people to get th…”