Everything Christian Garrett said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Garrett: Defense tech is currently overrated in venture capital
“What's, what's overrated? And I would say it was overrated actually is defense tech.”
Government must subsidize mining prices before private capital will invest
“If the government can support kind of a critical problem here in subsidized pricing and help create a market, right? Like there's no price, there's no market that exists right now here because you don't have the ability to get to critical scale... Basically yo…”
Anduril leadership frequently warns investors about fake primary allocations
“We've been long time and real investors and they have tweeted a ton about fake allocations in their primary rounds being marketed to investors.”
Top private companies avoid open secondary marketplaces for price discovery
“The best companies want to control their cap table. The best companies have unlimited demand. Right. And so in that essence, you don't need a broader market to have random buyers and sellers to do price discovery. Right. And so I think the best companies gener…”
Garrett: A wave of tech IPOs will begin in 2025 and continue through 2026
“And I think you'll see a wave companies going out starting this year and continuing through next year.”
Garrett: Defense tech value will accrue to a few winner-take-all companies
“It's not like enterprise software where there's going to be hundreds of great companies that go after a multi-trillion dollar TAM in defense tech, multi-trillion dollar TAM, but I think it's gonna be a much smaller number of companies where all the value accru…”
Garrett: US will win second Cold War by partnering with tech
“If you look, you know, backdrop, we're in a second cold war during the first court war, we won because of our technological industrial prowess and government was a huge partner to the tech industry and really was helped fund the beginnings of the tech industry…”
Garrett: European breakout startups face fewer venture-backed clones than US winners
“When you build a winner, you don't have what you have in the U S which is like, once there's a large, massive winner and outcome in the U S there's like 20 startups that get funded to go compete. Right. And Europe, it's not like that. The capital market is not…”
Applied Intuition software serves 18 of the top 20 auto OEMs
“They have cracked the code in selling to, you know, the top 20 auto OEMs. I think it's 18 out of 20 are customers.”
Garrett: Effective Tech Regulation Can Only Follow Real-World Technology Evolution
“You could not create stop signs and highway systems when the automotive car was first invented, right? You had to sort of see how the technology evolved And then you can figure out what regulations are needed. So that's definitely how this will play out.”
Unofficial secondary SPVs operate in a black hole with fraud risks
“A lot of that operates outside of that and is kind of a black hole and maybe not the best place to be in because you, one, don't collaborate with the company and then two, you don't have access to information.
Right.
And so and the third is potentially like …”
Garrett dismisses secondary market trading lists as uninformed noise
“A lot of them are noise. They're not signal, you know, transactions and a lot of those transactions are uninformed buyers and uninformed sellers. As an institutional firm, we don't pay attention to them and the best companies don't either.”
Garrett: SpaceX launch business operated with negative working capital for years
“SpaceX has been cashflow positive most of the life cycle of the business. The core business, the launch business for years had negative working capital”
Garrett: Databricks and Stripe converted RSUs to single-trigger to delay IPOs
“If you saw recently with Databricks and Stripe, those big massive rounds and tenders were actually to cover the tax bill for the employees after they hit their seven year cliff on the double trigger RSU. So they converted from double trigger to single trigger …”
Garrett: The Durbin Amendment was a core catalyst for modern fintech
“Underappreciated, but like Dodd-Frank post the GFC the Durbin amendment literally was like probably one of the core pieces of legislation that created the FinTech industry, right? Like you actually had interchange based business models that could compete enter…”
Garrett: Return to office has become a scapegoat for struggling tech companies
“Return to office has become like a scapegoat for businesses. Through a down cycle to basically blame everything that's going wrong. Like effectively, like if you're a bad business and things are going wrong, return offices scapegoat. If you're a good business …”
Garrett: European defense rearmament demand will attract talent and VC capital
“The biggest takeaway, just like we've seen in the U S is there's a market shift, which will attract talent and capital because there's an end customer. That's very, very serious about supporting new on trial and supporting the existing industrial base and spen…”
UK launched Defense Innovation Unit variant after pressure from Pete Hegseth
“The UK adopted a DIU variant and launched their own with I think about million pounds to start in a matter of months. The story apparently is that it was actually Secretary Hexeth who was pushing them that they should do this, and Minister of Defense Healy got…”
Garrett: AI is inextricably linked to energy, manufacturing, and mining
“It's now when everyone thinks about the future in AI, they're also thinking about manufacturing and energy, right? They're actually also thinking about mining and refining. That is going to be very powerful, and it's a key part of the re-industrialization tren…”
Garrett: US, Canada, and Australia possess every needed critical mineral element
“Just in the US and Canada and Australia, you have everything we need. We have every element that we need. So that is not the issue. We have the technology to go do these things.”
Rubio, Burgum, and tech CEOs to headline Hill and Valley Expo
“We're gonna have visions and demos of the future from Sean Sankar from Palantir, Chris Power from Hadrian Jake from Gecko Lisa from AMD. We'll have Secretary Burgum speaking Secretary Rubio and a bunch of other secretaries speaking as well, which will be reall…”
SpaceX runs two annual tender offers totaling over $1.5 billion
“SpaceX has raised ten billion dollars in primary over its, you know, 23 years of being around as a company. They've been running, you know, two tenders annually that, you know, total like more than a billion and a half dollars a year for a long time.”
Percentage of holdings sold signals more than absolute dollar size
“You want to think about the two dynamics around percentage of holdings and then total dollar size, right? And those are interesting, right? Like in some sense, if you sold five million bucks, but it's half of your holdings, right? Five million bucks at a certa…”
Founders are generally more bullish than investors and sell for life needs
“Most founders are the most bullish in their company, even more so than the investors. So the desire to sell is generally pretty tapered and usually driven by life needs.”