Alex Kolicich
Founding Partner & CIO, 8VC. On 2 shows, 4 appearances. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
investorengineer@AlexKolicich ↗alexkolicich.com ↗
Alex Kolicich is a Founding Partner and CIO at 8VC, focusing on artificial intelligence, enterprise software, and defense technology investments. Previously, he worked as an engineer and early product advisor at Google, Palantir Technologies, and Clarium Capital.
2shows
4appearances
63statements
14resolved
10supported
2contradicted
71%fully supported
2said about them ↓ Everything Alex Kolicich said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Kolicich: AI is not a bubble and is probably still under-hyped
“And I think it's an emphatic, no, it's not a bubble. Probably it's still a little under hyped.”
Kolicich: AI is not a bubble and remains underhyped
“And I think it's an emphatic, no, it's not a bubble. Probably it's still a little underhyped.”
Genuine AGI safety concerns are 10 to 20 years away
“I think this is likely what we're doing with AI and AI safety and stuff like that, that we could foresee in 1020 years AGI, where there's actual safety issues, but we are so far from that today. That's, I think, actually getting close to the peak of inflated e…”
Kolicich: Expect an AI crash and market retrenchment within two years
“I believe in two years where everyone's gonna say, oh, you know, we thought it would solve everything and it's all a very limited number of use cases. It's complete hype. And, you know, we'll probably see a bit of a crash and we'll see a retrenchment in AI.”
Kolicich: Open-source AI iteration speed will surpass closed source
“Cause you'll see the case of iteration at open source is going to eclipse close source.”
Kolicich: Existing AI models are sufficient to trigger an economic revolution
“Even if we do that, you'll still have a revolution in the economy. You'll still have a revolution in the way things happen because the, Limiting factors now are not the technology, it's diffusion of the technology into the economy.”
Kolicich: AI will force the legal industry to abandon billable hours
“That's gonna be, law's gonna be fully transformed. From really the bottom up. Like, their whole business model will have to shift. So you'll have to move from today law is sold per hour. You're gonna have, hours don't make any sense when it's agents doing work…”
Kolicich: Software's future is forward deployed engineers feeding context to LLMs
“And so the like super long-term world is it's all Context to the LLM. It's all requirements. It's all standard operating procedures, which is what FDs do. It's all changing the way people of the business operate, which is an FDE job. And that's the future of s…”
Kolicich: AI Capital Expenditures Currently Represent Only 3% to 4% of GDP
“Now in AI we're investing, like, three percent or four percent. It's like, it's not even yet on the scale of the industrial revolution.”
Kolicich predicts wave of VC firings over failure to adapt to AI
“And so I think you'll see over the next 10 years, a lot of retirements, a lot of firings, perhaps because people won't make that transition,”
Competitors will catch up to OpenAI's o1 reasoning model within six months
“O1 just came out. We haven't fully benchmarked on our side yet. It's definitely an improvement. And so open AI is ahead of everybody else. It's an improvement in reasoning which is good. We can talk about that later on, but I expect people will catch up within…”
Incumbent software systems will capture AI value through existing data gravity
“So I think if that happens and that's what the world looks like, then a LLM looks kind of like a query processor in a database. You give it context, it does its work, you get the answer out. But the point of leverage is the place with, at which the context Liv…”
Nvidia is not trading at dot-com bubble valuations on an earnings basis
“There's a lot of AI hype, but if you look at companies like Nvidia, they're actually not that expensive on an earnings basis. Like it's not, we're not in bubble territory, you know, Cisco, 2000 timeframe.”
AI startups should aggressively raise capital every three to four months
“If you are in AI or AI adjacent, you should be raising every three to four months, in my opinion, and you should be doing it aggressively.”
Early-stage 100x AI multiples are unsustainable artifacts of mega-fund capital oversupply
“There are rounds happening that are 102 hundred X revenue in the early stage markets, and even there you have to assume, you know, you're gonna have 10 X Multiple compression in the later stage rounds. So I don't think those are sustainable for any period of t…”
Venture capitalists voluntarily returning fee-bearing capital will never become a trend
“Money managers returning fee-bearing assets will never be a trend, in my opinion.”
The volume of venture-scale startup opportunities has declined 60% since 2021
“My estimate was, I think the amount of venture scale opportunities has gone down 60, 70%.”
LLM scaling exhibits decreasing returns, requiring 10x compute for sublinear improvements
“If you look at it today, though, we are, the exponential in LLM performance is so far working against us that you need Order of magnitude increases in compute, 10 X increase in compute to have relatively sublinear increases in performance. So you're at decreas…”
AI will hit a trough of disillusionment as revenue lags infrastructure buildout
“And that kind of starts to tell you that we make it close to the trough of disillusionment at some point where all this, you know, the infrastructure that was built and the idea is build it and they will come. You know, the people actually don't come. The reve…”
AI acqui-hires are specifically designed to bypass Lina Khan's antitrust scrutiny
“On the M&A side, I do think it has a lot to do with regulation and Lena Kahn, you know, threatening to block most mergers and acquisitions, and that's why you see these acqui-hire inflection character AI adept type acquisitions where it seems like they're doin…”
The capped defense budget will yield only tens of new primes
“I think we probably think it's a little overhyped in general, where we think it's real for sure, but it's not going to be an opportunity the size of software or AI or something like that. The defense budget is naturally limited as a percentage of the economy. …”
The volume of pre-IPO leadership departures at OpenAI is historically unprecedented
“I don't think we've ever seen pre-IPO so many leaders leave the best, like, crown jewel company in Silicon Valley. It's common, like, you IPO, everyone gets rich and they leave. Okay, that's normal. But before IPO, right in its, like, heyday, you don't see the…”
Kolicich: Venture capital will shrink over five years unless AI takes off
“I don't think it's gonna, you know, the space is gonna crash or everybody leave overnight, but I think just slowly over the next five years, unless AI really takes off, you'll see a general shrinking of venture capital, I think”
Kolicich: Big Tech's Low AI Pricing Will Hurt Competing Startups
“Big tech is doing a good job of anchoring the price of all these features pretty low, like co-pilots, 20 dollars a month per developer. It's incredibly cheap relative to the value that it does add. And that really anchors, you know, value in that market pretty…”
The other half of the tape: Alex Kolicich's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 2 times in 1 episode across the shows. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Molly O'Shea 2
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
Sourcery 2
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Alex's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOURCERYLEDGER | Founding Partner & CIO, 8VC | 2 | 46 | 78% 7/9 | full record on Sourcery → |
 AMERICAN OPTIMISTLEDGER | Founding Partner & CIO, 8VC | 2 | 17 | 60% 3/5 | full record on American Optimist → |