Everything Alex Carnell said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Carnell: Semaglutide and tirzepatide are clinically interchangeable despite distinct IP
“Our team's fundamental perspective is that they all achieve the same goals. They were just novel IP strategies to achieve those same goals. And I would say that they're all pretty much interchangeable.”
Carnell: Low-dose GLP-1s will likely be appropriate for almost everyone
“I would argue in the future, we could talk about why GLP-ONE's might be appropriate for just about everyone. That's because the reality of it is, as you go from your adolescence to your fifties and sixties, On average, people are going to pick up about five BM…”
Carnell: Scientists have already found medicines for most fatal diseases
“Is that incredible scientists have already cracked the code on most of the medicines we need to protect us from most of the diseases that will claim most of our lives.”
Carnell: Early proactive medicine will add a decade to expected lifespan
“Each of them has medicines available that if we could get on them early and be proactive about where we're going with our health, they will undoubtedly add an extra decade of life to our expected lifespan and have the potential to take curves that have been de…”
Carnell: No molecule is more important for longevity than GLP-1
“I fundamentally believe there's no molecule that's more important than GLP-one across that entire axis.”
Carnell: Upcoming data will show GLP-1s protect against addictive behaviors
“In terms of the addiction data that'll start coming out over the next year or so, you would lose that benefit. Like you would lose the, essentially the free gift of protecting yourself from being addicted to drugs, alcohol, or gambling. And that comes from the…”
Alex Carnell: PCSK9 drugs should eventually surpass GLP-1s in revenue and patients
“And I would argue because it is more asymmetric, it is more in the degree of that free lunch, I would argue that if you just project down the road longer term, this medicine should be far bigger in terms of the number of people that, that are on it and the rev…”
Carnell: AI will speed drug breakthrough timelines from 3-5 years to under 2
“The sheer ability to be more comprehensive and complete in our hypothesis set, and then the sheer ability to run Experimentation at a scale that's unprecedented, I think practically means we are going to be able to speed breakthroughs from timelines that would…”
Carnell: GLP-1 class will easily surpass $100B in annual revenue
“And I think it's easy now to conclude that this is a class of medicines will easily be in excess of a hundred billion dollars a year in revenue.”
Carnell: GLP-1 Patients Value Tolerability and Maintenance Over Maximum Weight Loss
“People are not solving for this massive bazooka. People are solving for something that helps them to lose some weight, stabilize and be there. And I think that's really interesting because what that means to me is that what people really want is something that…”
Carnell: 15% to 20% of GLP-1 Demand Flows Through Telehealth and Compounding
“Somewhere between 15 to 20% of the market that you couldn't capture through scripts was actually flowing through groups like hims and hers and other sources where people knew they wanted the benefits and wanted to be proactive about their health.”
Carnell: Oral Wegovy Lifted Weekly New GLP-1 Prescriptions to 300,000
“Prior to the launch of the oral Wagovi, just a few months ago, the GLP one market was moving at about a 200,000, you know, recorded new scripts Per, per per week. 200,000 new people getting on these medicines per week. The most recent data that I looked at thi…”
Carnell: Novo Nordisk data shows GLP-1s cut cardiovascular risk over 20%
“We've got compelling data right now, ah, out of Novo Nordisk over the last year that basically shows that by taking GLP-I medicines, there is a, you know, north of 20% reduction in our risk of having a heart attack or a stroke. And what I thought was pretty pr…”
Carnell: Chronic preventative drugs are improperly priced like acute treatments
“Most medicines that we need to be on for the rest of our lives that are going to be providing the chronic care, the different layers of that defensive health stack that will protect us from these diseases, those medicines today are priced as similarly to acute…”
Carnell: Biogen and Lilly Alzheimer's Drugs Slow Cognitive Decline by 30%
“And so, today, we've got some amazing medicines that are both Biogen and Eli Lilly, that if you are late in the disease progression of Alzheimer's, You can start to slow the decline. We can slow that decline by about 30%, and so intuitively that just gives us …”
Carnell: PCSK9 Inhibitors Have More Favorable Risk-Reward Than Statins
“If you start taking a PCSK nine inhibitor earlier in your life, Which, by the way, I think the risk reward is actually even more favorable than statins in terms of human health, but we know that you won't progress to cardiovascular disease.”
Carnell: High-quality multi-cancer early detection tests will emerge within five years
“And I think over the next three to five years, particularly with how AI and the evolution of these tests are really converging to help them to move faster and faster and to be better and better I think we're gonna wake up within the next five years with really…”
Carnell: AI drug platforms compress model-to-molecule timelines to one month
“What we have today are companies that can go from what would historically been running these massive screens that are incredibly time consuming to doing all of that screening work in silico and can go from model to molecule and what would have taken a couple o…”
Carnell: FDA brought in AI to review sponsor filings in record time
“Marty brought in an AI system to help them be able to comb through the thousands of pages of filings that sponsors behind medicines have to submit in record time versus the, you know, armies of people that would have to comb through that and the days and days …”
Carnell: Existing medicines can reduce middle-aged cardiovascular risk below 10%
“Most middle-aged men and women walking around have somewhere between a 30 and a 50% probability of having a heart attack and a stroke sometime between the time that they turn 40 and the time that they turn 80. And to me, that's tragic because we have the medic…”
Carnell: Eli Lilly data shows GLP-1s cut diabetes progression by 94%
“We've got amazing GLP-ONE medicines that I started with that from clear data out of Eli Lilly show a 94% reduction in your risk of moving from being pre-diabetic to diabetic.”
Carnell: Direct-to-consumer channels drive most GLP-1 adoption today
“What we're seeing with GLP One Medicines and what we're seeing that the direct-to-consumer side of that is driving most of the adoption today”
Carnell: Monthly and quarterly GLP-1 formulations are a massive unlock
“We went from twice a day to once a week, and now we've got versions that are once a month, maybe once a quarter. That's a huge unlock in my opinion.”
Alex Carnell: PCSK9 drugs reduce cardiovascular event risk by 20% to 25%
“And so in patients that have previously had a heart attack or stroke, we can reduce that risk by over 20% in the future. And for people that are at high risk of having a heart attack or a stroke, the medicines that are approved and on the market today can lowe…”